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Estonia - Bulgaria

UEFA Nations League November 16, 2026 18:00 Arigato Service Dream, Imabari
Estonia
#2 · 6 pts
vs
Bulgaria
#3 · 4 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
46.38%
Win
Estonia
34.3%
Draw
19.32%
Win
Bulgaria
1.21
Expected xG
0.68

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–0 (17.17%)
1X2 Result
1 46%
X 34%
2 19%
Double Chance
1X 81%
X2 54%
12 66%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 51%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Estonia a 46% win probability, against 34% for a draw and 19% for Bulgaria. Expected goals are 1.2 for Estonia and 0.7 for Bulgaria (total 1.9), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 17.17% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Estonia have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Bulgaria.

Season Stats

Estonia
2W 4D 4L
Bulgaria
3W 4D 5L
Averages per game
0.5
Goals
0.7
1.0
Conceded
1.2
2.9
Shots OT
3.8
3.0
Corners
3.3
37%
Poss.
50%
Percentages
40%
O 1.5
58%
30%
O 2.5
42%
20%
BTTS
33%
40%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 12 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
19%
O 3.5
19%
BTTS
Estonia
2W 1D 2L · at home
Bulgaria
2W 1D 3L · away
0.8
gls/g
0.7
1.0
Conceded
1.7
40%
Win %
33%
60%
Win or Draw
50%
40%
O 1.5
67%
40%
O 2.5
50%
20%
O 3.5
17%
20%
BTTS
17%
40%
Clean Sht
50%
60%
Failed to Score
50%
last 6
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Estonia Bulgaria →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.2% 10.3% 3.5% 0.8% 0.1% —
1 18.4% 12.4% 4.2% 0.9% 0.2% —
2 11.1% 7.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% —
3 4.5% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% — —
4 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% — —
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Estonia Estonia
D Iceland 0–0
W Luxembourg 1–0
D Bulgaria 0–0
D Iceland 1–1
L Slovakia 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 45%
Bulgaria Bulgaria
W Luxembourg 0–2
L Iceland 3–0
D Estonia 0–0
L Luxembourg 1–2
L Rep. Of Ireland 2–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Estonia Estonia
Attack
29
Defence
76
Form
42
Bulgaria Bulgaria
Attack
34
Defence
59
Form
29
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Estonia
1
Draw
0
Bulgaria
29 Sep 2026 UEFA Nations League 0–0

League C - Group D

# Team G Pts
1 Iceland Iceland 4 8
2 Estonia Estonia 4 6
3 Bulgaria Bulgaria 4 4
4 Luxembourg Luxembourg 4 3

What's at stake · League C - Group D

Top 2 advance to the next round

Estonia Bulgaria
Current #2 #3
→ Estonia #1 #3
→ Draw #2 #3
→ Bulgaria #3 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Estonia vs Bulgaria?
The model gives Estonia a 46% win probability, 34% for a draw, and 19% for an Bulgaria win.
How many goals are expected in Estonia vs Bulgaria?
Expected goals: Estonia 1.2, Bulgaria 0.7 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Estonia vs Bulgaria?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 17.17%.