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J1 League · Regular Season - 11 October 21, 2026 12:00 JFE Harenokuni Stadium, Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
#10 · 16 pts
2 – 0
Final score
Mito Hollyhock
#17 · 9 pts
Ataru Esaka (ast. Lucas Marcos Meireles) 52'
Ataru Esaka 65'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Fagiano Okayama a 36% win probability (draw 36%, Mito Hollyhock 27%). The final result was Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Mito Hollyhock.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
7
5
Shots on target
3
1.11
Actual xG
0.31
3
Saves
4
42%
Possession
58%
4
Corners
2
14
Tackles
16
1
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
⚽Ataru Esaka · ast. Lucas Marcos Meireles
52'
57'
Keisuke Tada / Ryo Nemoto ↕
57'
Hayata Yamamoto / Jin Okumura ↕
Haruka Motoyama
59'
⚽Ataru Esaka
65'
↕ Ataru Esaka / Kamiya Yuta
66'
↕ Masaya Matsumoto / Kosuke Shirai
66'
68'
Patryck Ferreira / Chihiro Kato ↕
68'
Motoki Nishihara / Kaito Taniguchi ↕
↕ Na Sang-Ho / Yota Fujii
78'
↕ Towa Yamane / Soichiro Mori
78'
82'
Rei Ieizumi / Yu Funabashi ↕
↕ Lucas Marcos Meireles / Kota Kawano
90'
Pre-match prediction
36.22%
Fagiano ←
36.69%
X
27.09%
Mito
we assigned to the actual result (Fagiano Okayama) 36.22% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Fagiano
0.70
1.11
+0.42
Mito
0.55
0.31
-0.24
Fagiano Okayama dominated by xG (1.11 vs 0.31). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 12 27
2 FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 12 27
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 12 26
4 Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 12 25
5 Vissel Kobe Vissel Kobe 12 23
6 Kawasaki Frontale Kawasaki Frontale 12 22
7 Urawa Urawa 12 21
8 Kashima Kashima 12 20
9 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 12 18
10 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 12 16
11 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 12 14
12 Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 12 14
13 Shimizu S-pulse Shimizu S-pulse 12 14
14 V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 12 12
15 Gamba Osaka Gamba Osaka 12 11
16 Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 12 10
17 Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock 12 9
18 Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 12 8
19 Avispa Fukuoka Avispa Fukuoka 12 7
20 JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 12 7
Lineups
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 3-4-2-1
1 L. Moser L. Moser G 7.12
43 Y. Suzuki Y. Suzuki D 7.24
48 Y. Tatsuta Y. Tatsuta D 7.58
26 H. Motoyama H. Motoyama D 6.47
88 T. Yamane T. Yamane 78' M 6.39
80 Oberdan Oberdan M 6.64
41 E. Miyamoto E. Miyamoto M 6.65
28 M. Matsumoto M. Matsumoto 66' M 6.44
8 A. Esaka A. Esaka 2 ⚽ 66' M 9.07
10 Na Sang-Ho Na Sang-Ho 78' M 6.50
99 Lucão Lucão 1 👟 89' F 6.98
Bench
20 K. Kawano K. Kawano 1' F 0.00
51 K. Shirai K. Shirai 24' D 6.86
9 Léo Gaúcho Léo Gaúcho F 0.00
19 R. Sato R. Sato F 0.00
7 R. Takeuchi R. Takeuchi M 0.00
44 S. Mori S. Mori 12' D 6.97
52 T. Hamada T. Hamada G 0.00
55 Y. Fujii Y. Fujii 12' D 6.94
33 Y. Kamiya Y. Kamiya 24' M 7.14
Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock 4-4-2
27 J. Słowik J. Słowik G 6.64
16 Y. Tamura Y. Tamura D 6.63
17 K. Itakura K. Itakura D 6.25
15 Y. Kimoto Y. Kimoto D 6.42
25 T. Mase T. Mase D 6.93
22 K. Taniguchi K. Taniguchi 68' M 6.14
20 Y. Funabashi Y. Funabashi 82' M 6.69
38 Leonardo Hugo Leonardo Hugo M 6.76
30 J. Okumura J. Okumura 57' M 6.35
8 C. Kato C. Kato 68' F 6.03
9 R. Nemoto R. Nemoto 57' F 6.46
Bench
39 H. Yamamoto H. Yamamoto 33' M 6.40
34 K. Nishikawa K. Nishikawa G 0.00
3 K. Osaki K. Osaki M 0.00
29 K. Tada K. Tada 33' F 6.29
24 K. Yamazaki K. Yamazaki M 0.00
2 M. Fofana M. Fofana D 0.00
44 M. Nishihara M. Nishihara 22' M 6.11
33 Patryck Ferreira Patryck Ferreira 22' F 6.25
50 R. Ieizumi R. Ieizumi 8' D 6.46
Best on the pitch
A. Esaka
A. Esaka
M · Fagiano
9.07
2 ⚽
3 shots · 43 pass
Y. Tatsuta
Y. Tatsuta
D · Fagiano
7.58
1 shots · 40 pass
Y. Suzuki
Y. Suzuki
D · Fagiano
7.24
· 34 pass
Y. Kamiya
Y. Kamiya
M · Fagiano
7.14
· 5 pass
L. Moser
L. Moser
G · Fagiano
7.12
· 18 pass
Lucão
Lucão
F · Fagiano
6.98
1 👟
4 shots · 21 pass
Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
L. Moser G 90 7.12 — — 0 18 11% 0 — —
Y. Suzuki D 90 7.24 — — 0 34 28% 2 — —
Y. Tatsuta D 90 7.58 — — 1 40 34% 2 — —
H. Motoyama D 90 6.47 — — 0 39 26% 2 1 —
T. Yamane M 78 6.39 — — 0 27 15% 1 — —
Oberdan M 90 6.64 — — 1 39 37% 0 — —
E. Miyamoto M 90 6.65 — — 2 41 31% 1 — —
M. Matsumoto M 66 6.44 — — 0 19 10% 4 — —
A. Esaka M 66 9.07 2 — 3 43 35% 0 — —
Na Sang-Ho M 78 6.50 — — 2 20 13% 1 — —
Lucão F 89 6.98 — 1 4 21 15% 1 — —
K. Kawano F 1 0.00 — — 0 1 1% 0 — —
K. Shirai D 24 6.86 — — 0 7 4% 0 — —
S. Mori D 12 6.97 — — 0 1 0% 0 — —
Y. Fujii D 12 6.94 — — 0 7 4% 0 — —
Y. Kamiya M 24 7.14 — — 0 5 4% 0 — —
Mito Hollyhock Mito Hollyhock — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Słowik G 90 6.64 — — 0 35 23% 0 — —
Y. Tamura D 90 6.63 — — 0 68 55% 2 — —
K. Itakura D 90 6.25 — — 0 75 60% 0 — —
Y. Kimoto D 90 6.42 — — 1 61 51% 1 — —
T. Mase D 90 6.93 — — 1 40 32% 1 — —
K. Taniguchi M 68 6.14 — — 2 21 17% 5 — —
Y. Funabashi M 82 6.69 — — 0 47 36% 1 — —
Leonardo Hugo M 90 6.76 — — 1 68 56% 0 — —
J. Okumura M 57 6.35 — — 0 22 19% 1 — —
C. Kato F 68 6.03 — — 0 35 27% 1 — —
R. Nemoto F 57 6.46 — — 0 12 7% 1 — —
H. Yamamoto M 33 6.40 — — 1 16 10% 3 — —
K. Tada F 33 6.29 — — 0 8 5% 0 — —
M. Nishihara M 22 6.11 — — 0 7 6% 0 — —
Patryck Ferreira F 22 6.25 — — 1 3 3% 0 — —
R. Ieizumi D 8 6.46 — — 0 3 3% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?
The final score was Fagiano Okayama 2–0 Mito Hollyhock.
What did the model predict before Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock?
The model assigned 36% probability to a Fagiano Okayama win, 36% to a draw, and 27% to an Mito Hollyhock win.