← Primeira Liga
Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 32 May 02, 2026 21:30
FC Porto
#1 · 85 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Alverca
#11 · 39 pts
✓Model correct — prediction FC Porto
J. Bednarek (ast. G. Veiga) 40'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 73% win probability (draw 16%, Alverca 10%). The final result was FC Porto 1–0 Alverca. In 1 previous meetings, FC Porto have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Alverca.

Match statistics
5
Total shots
10
3
Shots on target
6
0.62
Actual xG
1.50
5
Saves
2
57%
Possession
43%
5
Corners
4
17
Tackles
17
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
J. Kiwior
38'
38'
Chiquinho
⚽J. Bednarek · ast. G. Veiga
40'
↕ J. Kiwior / A. Varela
46'
↕ Zaidu / M. Fernandes
46'
52'
Naves
↕ O. Pietuszewski / B. Sainz
63'
74'
Sandro Lima
↕ G. Veiga / S. Fofana
74'
77'
Figueiredo
78'
D. Gui / Figueiredo ↕
78'
Marezi / Chiquinho ↕
↕ Pepe / R. Mora
86'
89'
Z. Kassary / Rhaldney ↕
90'
D. Spencer / Naves ↕
90'
C. Nuozzi / Sandro Lima ↕
Pre-match prediction
73.31%
FC ←
16.31%
X
10.38%
Alverca
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (FC Porto) 73.31% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
FC
2.30
0.62
-1.68
Alverca
0.81
1.50
+0.69
Alverca dominated by xG (1.50 vs 0.62). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 33 85
2 Sporting CP Sporting CP 33 79
3 Benfica Benfica 33 77
4 SC Braga SC Braga 33 58
5 Famalicao Famalicao 33 53
6 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 33 50
7 Moreirense Moreirense 33 42
8 Guimaraes Guimaraes 33 42
9 Estoril Estoril 33 39
10 Arouca Arouca 33 39
11 Alverca Alverca 33 39
12 Santa Clara Santa Clara 33 36
13 Rio Ave Rio Ave 33 35
14 Nacional Nacional 33 31
15 Estrela Estrela 33 29
16 Casa Pia Casa Pia 33 29
17 Tondela Tondela 33 28
18 AVS AVS 33 20
Lineups
FC Porto FC Porto 4-3-3
99 Diogo Costa Diogo Costa G 7.90
12
Zaidu 45' D 6.60
4 Jakub Kiwior Jakub Kiwior 45' D 7.20
5 J. Bednarek J. Bednarek 1 ⚽ D 8.60
20 Alberto Baio Alberto Baio D 9.00
10 Gabri Veiga Gabri Veiga 1 👟 74' M 7.00
13 Pablo Rosario Pablo Rosario M 7.90
8 Victor Mow Froholdt Victor Mow Froholdt M 6.70
77 Oskar Pietuszewski Oskar Pietuszewski 63' F 6.60
27 Deniz Gül Deniz Gül F 6.70
11 Pepê Aquino Pepê Aquino 86' F 6.30
Bench
22 A. Varela A. Varela 53' M 7.20
17 Borja Sainz Borja Sainz 35' F 6.50
52
M. Fernandes 53' D 6.30
86 Rodrigo Mora Rodrigo Mora 12' M 6.70
42 Seko Fofana Seko Fofana 24' M 6.70
29 Terem Moffi Terem Moffi F
3 Thiago Silva Thiago Silva D
7 William William F
Alverca Alverca 3-4-3
31
G 6.50
33
D 6.30
5 Sergi Gómez Sergi Gómez D 7.50
4 Kaiky Naves Kaiky Naves D 6.50
12
M 7.30
18 Lincoln Lincoln M 7.50
26 Rhaldney Rhaldney 89' M 6.20
2
M 6.50
20 Figueiredo Figueiredo 77' F 6.60
91 Sandro Lima Sandro Lima F 6.30
10
Chiquinho 77' F 7.00
Bench
11 Cédric Nuozzi Cédric Nuozzi 8' F 6.30
9 M. Milovanović M. Milovanović 21' F 6.70
Best on the pitch
Alberto Baio
Alberto Baio
D · FC
9.00
1 shots · 47 pass
J. Bednarek
J. Bednarek
D · FC
8.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 70 pass
Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa
G · FC
7.90
· 26 pass
Pablo Rosario
Pablo Rosario
M · FC
7.90
1 shots · 61 pass
Lincoln
Lincoln
M · Alverca
7.50
· 58 pass
Sergi Gómez
Sergi Gómez
D · Alverca
7.50
· 23 pass
FC Porto FC Porto — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Diogo Costa G 98 7.90 — — — 26 17% — — —
Zaidu D 45 6.60 — — — 29 24% — — —
Jakub Kiwior D 45 7.20 — — — 31 31% 5 1 —
J. Bednarek D 98 8.60 1 — 1 70 67% 1 — —
Alberto Baio D 98 9.00 — — 1 47 42% 4 — —
Gabri Veiga M 74 7.00 — 1 — 33 29% 1 — —
Pablo Rosario M 98 7.90 — — 1 61 54% — — —
Victor Mow Froholdt M 98 6.70 — — — 37 30% 1 — —
Oskar Pietuszewski F 63 6.60 — — — 13 10% 1 — —
Deniz Gül F 98 6.70 — — 1 6 4% — — —
Pepê Aquino F 86 6.30 — — — 28 22% — — —
A. Varela M 53 7.20 — — — 22 21% 3 — —
Borja Sainz F 35 6.50 — — 1 6 6% 1 — —
M. Fernandes D 53 6.30 — — — 20 18% — — —
Rodrigo Mora M 12 6.70 — — — 1 1% — — —
Seko Fofana M 24 6.70 — — — 7 7% — — —
Alverca Alverca — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 98 6.50 — — — 17 5% — — —
D 98 6.30 — — 1 37 32% 1 — —
Sergi Gómez D 98 7.50 — — — 23 21% 2 — —
Kaiky Naves D 90 6.50 — — — 47 38% 4 1 —
M 98 7.30 — — — 31 25% 2 — —
Lincoln M 98 7.50 — — — 58 46% 4 — —
Rhaldney M 89 6.20 — — — 22 20% — — —
M 98 6.50 — — 2 34 25% — — —
Figueiredo F 77 6.60 — — 2 24 19% 1 1 —
Sandro Lima F 90 6.30 — — 3 16 14% — 1 —
Chiquinho F 77 7.00 — — 1 10 7% 3 1 —
Cédric Nuozzi F 8 6.30 — — 1 — — — — —
M. Milovanović F 21 6.70 — — — 2 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Porto vs Alverca?
The final score was FC Porto 1–0 Alverca.
What did the model predict before FC Porto vs Alverca?
The model assigned 73% probability to a FC Porto win, 16% to a draw, and 10% to an Alverca win.