✓Model correct — prediction FC Porto
J. Bednarek
(ast. G. Veiga)
40'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 73% win probability (draw 16%, Alverca 10%). The final result was FC Porto 1–0 Alverca. In 2 previous meetings, FC Porto have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Alverca.
Match statistics
5
Total shots
10
3
Shots on target
6
0.62
Actual xG
1.50
5
Saves
2
57%
Possession
43%
5
Corners
4
17
Tackles
17
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
J. Kiwior
38'
38'
Chiquinho
⚽J. Bednarek
· ast. G. Veiga
40'
J. Kiwior
/ A. Varela
46'
Zaidu
/ M. Fernandes
46'
52'
Naves
O. Pietuszewski
/ B. Sainz
63'
74'
Sandro Lima
G. Veiga
/ S. Fofana
74'
77'
Figueiredo
78'
D. Gui
/
Figueiredo
78'
Marezi
/
Chiquinho
Pepe
/ R. Mora
86'
89'
Z. Kassary
/
Rhaldney
90'
D. Spencer
/
Naves
90'
C. Nuozzi
/
Sandro Lima
Pre-match prediction
73.31%
FC ←
16.31%
X
10.38%
Alverca
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (FC Porto)
73.31%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.30
0.62
-1.68
0.81
1.50
+0.69
Alverca dominated by xG (1.50 vs 0.62).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
99
Diogo Costa
G
Diogo Costa
G
12
Z. Sanusi
45'
D
Z. Sanusi
45'
D
4
J. Kiwior
45'
D
J. Kiwior
45'
D
5
J. Bednarek
1 ⚽
D
J. Bednarek
1 ⚽
D
20
Alberto Baio
D
Alberto Baio
D
10
Gabri Veiga
1 👟
74'
M
Gabri Veiga
1 👟
74'
M
13
P. Rosario
M
P. Rosario
M
8
Victor Mow Froholdt
M
Victor Mow Froholdt
M
77
Oskar Pietuszewski
63'
F
27
D. Gül
F
D. Gül
F
11
Pepê Aquino
86'
F
Pepê Aquino
86'
F
Bench
22
A. Varela
53'
M
A. Varela
53'
M
17
Borja Sainz
35'
F
Borja Sainz
35'
F
52
Martim Fernandes
53'
D
Martim Fernandes
53'
D
86
Rodrigo Mora
12'
M
Rodrigo Mora
12'
M
42
S. Fofana
24'
M
S. Fofana
24'
M
3
Thiago Silva
D
Thiago Silva
D
29
T. Moffi
F
T. Moffi
F
7
William
F
William
F
31
G
33
D
5
Sergi Gómez
D
Sergi Gómez
D
4
Kaiky Naves
D
Kaiky Naves
D
12
M
18
Lincoln
M
Lincoln
M
26
Rhaldney
89'
M
Rhaldney
89'
M
2
M
20
Figueiredo
77'
F
Figueiredo
77'
F
91
Sandro Lima
F
10
Chiquinho
77'
F
Chiquinho
77'
F
Bench
11
C. Nuozzi
8'
F
C. Nuozzi
8'
F
9
M. Milovanović
21'
F
M. Milovanović
21'
F
Best on the pitch
Alberto Baio
D · FC
9.00
1 shots
· 47 pass
J. Bednarek
D · FC
8.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 70 pass
Diogo Costa
G · FC
7.90
· 26 pass
P. Rosario
M · FC
7.90
1 shots
· 61 pass
Lincoln
M · Alverca
7.50
· 58 pass
Sergi Gómez
D · Alverca
7.50
· 23 pass
FC Porto — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Costa | G | 98 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 26 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Z. Sanusi | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 29 | 24% | — | — | — |
| J. Kiwior | D | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 31% | 5 | 1 | — |
| J. Bednarek | D | 98 | 8.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 70 | 67% | 1 | — | — |
| Alberto Baio | D | 98 | 9.00 | — | — | 1 | 47 | 42% | 4 | — | — |
| Gabri Veiga | M | 74 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 33 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| P. Rosario | M | 98 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 54% | — | — | — |
| Victor Mow Froholdt | M | 98 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 37 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Oskar Pietuszewski | F | 63 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Gül | F | 98 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Pepê Aquino | F | 86 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 22% | — | — | — |
| A. Varela | M | 53 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 21% | 3 | — | — |
| Borja Sainz | F | 35 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Martim Fernandes | D | 53 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Mora | M | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| S. Fofana | M | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
Alverca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 17 | 5% | — | — | — | |
| D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 32% | 1 | — | — | |
| Sergi Gómez | D | 98 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 23 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Kaiky Naves | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 47 | 38% | 4 | 1 | — |
| M | 98 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | 2 | — | — | |
| Lincoln | M | 98 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 58 | 46% | 4 | — | — |
| Rhaldney | M | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 20% | — | — | — |
| M | 98 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 25% | — | — | — | |
| Figueiredo | F | 77 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 24 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Sandro Lima | F | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 16 | 14% | — | 1 | — |
| Chiquinho | F | 77 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 3 | 1 | — |
| C. Nuozzi | F | 8 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Milovanović | F | 21 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Porto vs Alverca?
The final score was FC Porto 1–0 Alverca.
What did the model predict before FC Porto vs Alverca?
The model assigned 73% probability to a FC Porto win, 16% to a draw, and 10% to an Alverca win.