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← Serie A

Fiorentina - Atalanta

Serie A October 29, 2026 20:45 Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
Fiorentina
#18 · 4 pts
vs
Atalanta
#11 · 10 pts
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky 14.3°C 💨 4 km/h · Florence
⚡ Pre-match analysis
35.56%
Win
Fiorentina
27.98%
Draw
36.46%
Win
Atalanta
1.28
Expected xG
1.5

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.87%)
1X2 Result
1 36%
X 28%
2 36%
Double Chance
1X 64%
X2 64%
12 72%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
✓ 85.5% hit rate (83 picks)
Over 2.5 55%
✓ 60.3% hit rate (73 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Atalanta a 36% win probability, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Fiorentina. Expected goals are 1.3 for Fiorentina and 1.5 for Atalanta (total 2.8), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.87% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Atalanta.

Season Stats

Fiorentina
3W 5D 7L
Atalanta
4W 4D 7L
Averages per game
0.9
Goals
1.4
1.7
Conceded
1.6
4.0
Shots OT
4.7
4.4
Corners
4.6
45%
Poss.
50%
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
73%
53%
O 2.5
53%
53%
BTTS
67%
27%
Clean Sht
13%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Serie A. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
65%
BTTS
Fiorentina
1W 6D 3L · at home
Atalanta
2W 3D 5L · away
0.6
gls/g
1.5
1.1
Conceded
1.7
10%
Win %
20%
70%
Win or Draw
50%
60%
O 1.5
100%
30%
O 2.5
60%
10%
O 3.5
30%
50%
BTTS
80%
40%
Clean Sht
10%
40%
Failed to Score
10%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Fiorentina Atalanta →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.3% 9.4% 7.0% 3.5% 1.3% 0.4%
1 8.0% 11.9% 8.9% 4.4% 1.7% 0.5%
2 5.1% 7.6% 5.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.3%
3 2.2% 3.2% 2.4% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1%
4 0.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% —
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Fiorentina Fiorentina
L Inter 2–1
L Como 1–3
L Genoa 2–1
D Napoli 1–1
W Venezia 2–4
Home clean sheet (120 days) 24%
Atalanta Atalanta
D Frosinone 4–4
L AC Milan 3–2
W Venezia 3–1
L Juventus 2–0
L Cagliari 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 28%

Playing profile

Fiorentina Fiorentina
Attack
39
Defence
42
Form
26
Atalanta Atalanta
Attack
47
Defence
42
Form
41
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Fiorentina
1
Draw
1
Atalanta
22 May 2026 Serie A 1–1
30 Nov 2025 Serie A 0–2

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Lazio Lazio 9 25
2 Inter Inter 8 22
3 AS Roma AS Roma 9 21
4 Como Como 9 20
5 AC Milan AC Milan 8 18
6 Frosinone Frosinone 8 14
7 Juventus Juventus 8 14
8 Torino Torino 9 13
9 Cagliari Cagliari 9 13
10 Napoli Napoli 8 11
11 Atalanta Atalanta 8 10
12 Lecce Lecce 8 9
13 Bologna Bologna 8 8
14 Sassuolo Sassuolo 9 8
15 Monza Monza 8 7
16 Genoa Genoa 8 7
17 Udinese Udinese 8 4
18 Fiorentina Fiorentina 8 4
19 Parma Parma 8 4
20 Venezia Venezia 8 3
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
The model gives Fiorentina a 35% win probability, 27% for a draw, and 36% for an Atalanta win.
How many goals are expected in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.3, Atalanta 1.5 (total 2.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.87%.