Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 15
May 09, 2026 23:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Fluminense, result Draw
John Kennedy
36'
K. Serna
(ast. John Kennedy)
90'
(pen.)
63'
Renato Kayzer
67'
(ast. Renato Kayzer)
Rene
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Fluminense a 56% win probability (draw 22%, Vitoria 20%). The final result was Fluminense 2–2 Vitoria.
Match statistics
10
Total shots
8
5
Shots on target
3
1.05
Actual xG
1.44
1
Saves
3
58%
Possession
42%
6
Corners
3
17
Tackles
16
4
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
⚽John Kennedy
36'
48'
Renato Kayzer
Alisson
60'
63'
(pen.)
Renato Kayzer⚽
67'
ast. Renato Kayzer ·
Rene⚽
73'
Ramon
Nonato
/ R. Castillo
73'
Y. Soteldo
/ K. Serna
73'
Alisson
/ Hercules
74'
75'
D. Tarzia
/
Renato Kayzer
Samuel Xavier
76'
82'
Ze Breno
/
Caique Goncalves
82'
R. Lopez
/
Rene
Samuel Xavier
/ Guga
83'
J. Savarino
/ Riquelme Felipe
83'
88'
Neris
/
Nathan Mendes
88'
Ronald Lopes
/
Baralhas
Riquelme Felipe
90'+2
Rene
90'+7
⚽K. Serna
· ast. John Kennedy
90'
Pre-match prediction
56.53%
Fluminense
22.61%
X ←
20.85%
Vitoria
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
22.61%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.02
1.05
-0.97
1.11
1.44
+0.33
Vitoria dominated by xG (1.44 vs 1.05).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Fábio
G
Fábio
G
6
Renê
D
Renê
D
29
Julián Millán
D
Julián Millán
D
4
Ignácio
D
Ignácio
D
2
Samuel Xavier
83'
D
Samuel Xavier
83'
D
25
Alisson
73'
M
Alisson
73'
M
16
Nonato
74'
M
Nonato
74'
M
7
Y. Soteldo
73'
M
Y. Soteldo
73'
M
32
L. Acosta
M
L. Acosta
M
11
J. Savarino
83'
M
J. Savarino
83'
M
9
John Kennedy
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
John Kennedy
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
17
A. Canobbio
F
A. Canobbio
F
5
Facundo Bernal
M
Facundo Bernal
M
23
Guga
16'
D
Guga
16'
D
13
Guilherme Arana
D
Guilherme Arana
D
35
Hércules
26'
M
Hércules
26'
M
21
Igor Rabello
D
Igor Rabello
D
22
Juan Pablo Freytes
D
Juan Pablo Freytes
D
90
Kevin Serna
1 ⚽
26'
F
Kevin Serna
1 ⚽
26'
F
94
Otávio
M
Otávio
M
28
Riquelme Felipe
16'
F
Riquelme Felipe
16'
F
19
Rodrigo Castillo
25'
F
Rodrigo Castillo
25'
F
98
Vitor Eudes
G
Vitor Eudes
G
1
Lucas Arcanjo
G
Lucas Arcanjo
G
13
Ramon
D
Ramon
D
36
Luan Cândido
D
Luan Cândido
D
95
Caique Gonçalves
82'
D
Caique Gonçalves
82'
D
26
Edenilson
D
Edenilson
D
45
Nathan Mendes
88'
D
Nathan Mendes
88'
D
6
E. Martínez
M
E. Martínez
M
88
Zé Vitor
M
Zé Vitor
M
44
Gabriel Baralhas
88'
M
Gabriel Baralhas
88'
M
91
Rene
1 ⚽
82'
F
Rene
1 ⚽
82'
F
79
Renato Kayzer
1 ⚽
1 👟
75'
F
Renato Kayzer
1 ⚽
1 👟
75'
F
Bench
12
Diego Tarzia
24'
D
Diego Tarzia
24'
D
23
Fabrício Santos
F
Fabrício Santos
F
83
Jamerson
D
Jamerson
D
55
José Breno
17'
M
José Breno
17'
M
20
Lucas Silva
F
Lucas Silva
F
7
Marinho
F
Marinho
F
77
Neris
11'
D
Neris
11'
D
11
Osvaldo
F
Osvaldo
F
62
Pablo Santos
M
Pablo Santos
M
31
Renzo López
17'
F
Renzo López
17'
F
8
Ronald
11'
M
Ronald
11'
M
71
Yuri Sena
G
Yuri Sena
G
Best on the pitch
John Kennedy
F · Fluminense
8.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 29 pass
Nonato
M · Fluminense
7.60
1 shots
· 41 pass
Rene
F · Vitoria
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 11 pass
Kevin Serna
F · Fluminense
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 8 pass
L. Acosta
M · Fluminense
7.30
1 shots
· 63 pass
Lucas Arcanjo
G · Vitoria
7.30
· 29 pass
Fluminense — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio | G | 99 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Renê | D | 99 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 68 | 59% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Julián Millán | D | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 35 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Ignácio | D | 99 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 46 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | 83 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 48% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Alisson | M | 73 | 5.70 | — | — | 1 | 49 | 44% | — | 1 | — |
| Nonato | M | 74 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 39% | 6 | — | — |
| Y. Soteldo | M | 73 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 23% | — | — | — |
| L. Acosta | M | 99 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Savarino | M | 83 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 40% | — | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 99 | 8.20 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 29 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| Guga | D | 16 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Hércules | M | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | F | 26 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Felipe | F | 16 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | 25 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
Vitoria — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 99 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Ramon | D | 99 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 31% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Luan Cândido | D | 99 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 46 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| Caique Gonçalves | D | 82 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 44 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Edenilson | D | 99 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 40 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 88 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 27 | 22% | 4 | — | — |
| E. Martínez | M | 99 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 31 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 99 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 47 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Baralhas | M | 88 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Rene | F | 82 | 7.50 | 1 | — | 1 | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 75 | 7.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Diego Tarzia | D | 24 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | 2 | — | — |
| José Breno | M | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Neris | D | 11 | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renzo López | F | 17 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Ronald | M | 11 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Fluminense vs Vitoria?
The final score was Fluminense 2–2 Vitoria.
What did the model predict before Fluminense vs Vitoria?
The model assigned 56% probability to a Fluminense win, 22% to a draw, and 20% to an Vitoria win.