France - Türkiye
Weather at kick-off
☀️
Clear sky
13.8°C
💨 10 km/h
· Tochigi
⚡ Pre-match analysis
80.9%
Win
France
14.03%
Draw
5.07%
Win
Türkiye
2.69
0.54
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
France
80.9%
Probability
62.9%
1X2 accuracy · 35 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–0
(14.5%)
1X2 Result
1
81%
X
14%
2
5%
Double Chance
1X
95%
X2
19%
12
86%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
88%
Over 2.5
71%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives France a 80% win probability, against 14% for a draw and 5% for Türkiye. Expected goals are 2.7 for France and 0.5 for Türkiye (total 3.2), with a 87% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–0 at 14.5% probability. In 1 previous meetings, France have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Türkiye.
Season Stats
9W
2D
3L
5W
2D
5L
Averages per game
1.9
Goals
1.4
1.1
Conceded
1.5
6.5
Shots OT
5.3
6.6
Corners
5.3
59%
Poss.
55%
Percentages
79%
O 1.5
67%
43%
O 2.5
67%
50%
BTTS
50%
43%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ
Based on the last 14 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
42%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
3W
2D
1L
· at home
2W
1D
3L
· away
1.7
gls/g
1.5
0.8
Conceded
1.8
50%
Win %
33%
83%
Win or Draw
50%
83%
O 1.5
83%
33%
O 2.5
83%
33%
O 3.5
50%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
33%
17%
Failed to Score
33%
last 6
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ France
Türkiye →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 1 | 10.7% | 5.7% | 1.5% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 2 | 14.4% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 0.4% | — | — |
| 3 | 12.9% | 6.9% | 1.8% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 4 | 8.7% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 5 | 4.7% | 2.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
France
Attack
57
Defence
76
Form
62
Türkiye
Attack
38
Defence
42
Form
4
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
0
Draw
0
25 Sep 2026
1–0
Unavailable
France
Injured
What's at stake · League A - Group A
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #4 |
| → France | #1 | #4 |
| → Draw | #1 | #4 |
| → Türkiye | #1 | #4 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win France vs Türkiye?
The model gives France a 80% win probability, 14% for a draw, and 5% for an Türkiye win.
How many goals are expected in France vs Türkiye?
Expected goals: France 2.7, Türkiye 0.5 (total 3.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 87%.
What is the most likely score in France vs Türkiye?
2–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.5%.