Skip to main content
← UEFA Nations League

Greece - Serbia

UEFA Nations League November 16, 2026 20:45 Arigato Service Dream, Imabari
Greece
#2 · 8 pts
vs
Serbia
#4 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
65.83%
Win
Greece
25.52%
Draw
8.65%
Win
Serbia
1.67
Expected xG
0.43
Most likely outcome
Greece
65.83%
Probability
62.9%
1X2 accuracy · 35 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (19.19%)
1X2 Result
1 66%
X 26%
2 9%
Double Chance
1X 91%
X2 34%
12 75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 55%
Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch prediction gives Greece a 65% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 8% for Serbia. Expected goals are 1.7 for Greece and 0.4 for Serbia (total 2.1), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 19.19% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Greece have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Serbia.

Season Stats

Greece
8W 2D 2L
Serbia
2W 4D 6L
Averages per game
1.6
Goals
0.8
0.7
Conceded
1.2
4.3
Shots OT
3.0
4.4
Corners
2.8
44%
Poss.
35%
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
83%
50%
O 2.5
33%
25%
BTTS
42%
58%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 12 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
9%
O 3.5
34%
BTTS
Greece
2W 2D 2L · at home
Serbia
0W 2D 4L · away
1.2
gls/g
0.5
1.0
Conceded
1.8
33%
Win %
0%
67%
Win or Draw
33%
67%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
33%
17%
O 3.5
0%
17%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
50%
Failed to Score
50%
last 6
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Greece Serbia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.3% 5.3% 1.1% 0.2% — —
1 20.5% 8.8% 1.9% 0.3% — —
2 17.1% 7.3% 1.6% 0.2% — —
3 9.5% 4.1% 0.9% 0.1% — —
4 4.0% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% — —
5 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Greece Greece
D Germany 0–0
D Netherlands 2–2
W Germany 0–1
W Serbia 1–2
W Scotland 0–3
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Serbia Serbia
L Netherlands 2–1
L Germany 2–0
L Netherlands 1–2
L Greece 1–2
W Austria 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Greece Greece
Attack
30
Defence
67
Form
41
Serbia Serbia
Attack
27
Defence
34
Form
0
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Greece
0
Draw
0
Serbia
24 Sep 2026 UEFA Nations League 2–1

League A - Group B

# Team G Pts
1 Netherlands Netherlands 4 8
2 Greece Greece 4 8
3 Germany Germany 4 5
4 Serbia Serbia 4 0

What's at stake · League A - Group B

Top 2 advance to the next round

Greece Serbia
Current #2 #4
→ Greece #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #4
→ Serbia #2 #4

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Greece vs Serbia?
The model gives Greece a 65% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 8% for an Serbia win.
How many goals are expected in Greece vs Serbia?
Expected goals: Greece 1.7, Serbia 0.4 (total 2.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Greece vs Serbia?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 19.19%.