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Gremio - Atletico-MG

Copa do Brasil November 01, 2026 22:30
Gremio
vs
Atletico-MG
⚡ Pre-match analysis
50.17%
Win
Gremio
21.74%
Draw
28.09%
Win
Atletico-MG
2.23
Expected xG
1.62

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.61%)
1X2 Result
1 50%
X 22%
2 28%
Double Chance
1X 72%
X2 50%
12 78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 83%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Gremio a 50% win probability, against 21% for a draw and 28% for Atletico-MG. Expected goals are 2.2 for Gremio and 1.6 for Atletico-MG (total 3.8), with a 91% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.61% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Gremio have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Atletico-MG.

Season Stats

Gremio
4W 5D 1L
Atletico-MG
7W 3D 4L
Averages per game
1.6
Goals
1.4
0.9
Conceded
0.9
4.1
Shots OT
5.8
5.5
Corners
6.4
48%
Poss.
59%
Percentages
70%
O 1.5
71%
40%
O 2.5
43%
50%
BTTS
43%
50%
Clean Sht
36%
ℹ Based on the last 14 matches in Copa do Brasil. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
20%
O 3.5
34%
BTTS
Gremio
3W 1D 0L · at home
Atletico-MG
3W 2D 2L · away
1.5
gls/g
1.1
0.2
Conceded
1.0
75%
Win %
43%
100%
Win or Draw
71%
50%
O 1.5
71%
25%
O 2.5
29%
25%
O 3.5
14%
25%
BTTS
43%
75%
Clean Sht
43%
25%
Failed to Score
14%
last 7
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Gremio Atletico-MG →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.1% 3.5% 2.8% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
1 4.8% 7.7% 6.2% 3.4% 1.4% 0.4%
2 5.3% 8.6% 6.9% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5%
3 3.9% 6.4% 5.1% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4%
4 2.2% 3.5% 2.9% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%
5 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Recent form

Gremio Gremio
W Internacional 3–1
D Internacional 0–0
W Mirassol 1–0
D Mirassol 1–1
W Confiança 0–3
Home clean sheet (120 days) 24%
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
W Cruzeiro 2–1
D Cruzeiro 1–1
W Juventude 0–1
D Juventude 0–0
L Ceara 2–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 27%

Playing profile

Gremio Gremio
Attack
39
Defence
56
Form
52
Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Attack
44
Defence
51
Form
60
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Gremio
0
Draw
1
Atletico-MG
16 Aug 2026 Brasileirão Série A 0–3
26 Feb 2026 Brasileirão Série A 2–1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
The model gives Gremio a 50% win probability, 21% for a draw, and 28% for an Atletico-MG win.
How many goals are expected in Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
Expected goals: Gremio 2.2, Atletico-MG 1.6 (total 3.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 91%.
What is the most likely score in Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.61%.