HFX Wanderers FC 2–2 Cavalry FC — pre-match prediction — Canadian Premier League — October 12, 2026

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Canadian Premier League · Group Stage October 12, 2026 22:00 Wanderers Grounds, Halifax

HFX Wanderers FC

#7 · 28 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Cavalry FC

#1 · 60 pts

Jason Bahamboula (ast. Miguel Arilla Guinot) 6'

Thomas Meilleur Giguère (ast. Ryan Telfer) 90'+2

40' Caniggia Elva

55' (ast. Tobias Warschewski) Ali Musse

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Cavalry FC a 48% win probability (draw 20%, HFX Wanderers FC 31%). The final result was HFX Wanderers FC 2–2 Cavalry FC. In 3 previous meetings, HFX Wanderers FC have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 2 wins for Cavalry FC.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.89

Actual xG

1.93

Saves

60%

Possession

40%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

⚽Jason Bahamboula · ast. Miguel Arilla Guinot

32'

Daan Klomp

34'

E. Kobza

34'

40'

Caniggia Elva⚽

40'

55'

ast. Tobias Warschewski · Ali Musse⚽

↕ Lucas Olguin / S. Zitman

60'

↕ Liam MacKenzie / Nelson Pierre

69'

S. Zitman

71'

72'

B. Kamdem

↕ I. Johnston / Yohan Bai

75'

Goteh Ntignee / Ali Musse ↕

↕ Miguel Arilla Guinot / A. Reid

75'

↕ Jefferson Alphonse / Tavio Ciccarelli

75'

77'

Harrison Paton

79'

Maël Henry / Caniggia Elva ↕

⚽Thomas Meilleur Giguère · ast. Ryan Telfer

90'+2

Lorenzo Callegari

90'+7

90'

Curtis Ofori / Nathaniel Edwards ↕

Pre-match prediction

31.26%

HFX

20.54%

X ←

48.19%

Cavalry

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 20.54% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

HFX

1.63

0.89

-0.74

Cavalry

2.10

1.93

-0.17

Cavalry FC dominated by xG (1.93 vs 0.89). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	28	60
2	Forge	28	58
3	Atlético Ottawa	28	43
4	Supra du Quebec	28	38
5	Vancouver FC	28	37
6	York United	28	30
7	HFX Wanderers FC	28	28
8	Pacific FC	28	15

Lineups

HFX Wanderers FC 4-2-3-1

M. Carducci G 6.35

R. Telfer 1 👟 D 7.74

Kareem Sow D 6.68

T. Meilleur-Giguère 1 ⚽ D 7.44

Jefferson Alphonse 75' D 6.12

L. Olguin 60' M 6.42

L. Callegari M 7.15

Liam Mackenzie 69' M 6.40

I. Johnston 75' M 6.82

Miguel Arilla 1 👟 75' M 6.62

J. Bahamboula 1 ⚽ F 7.65

Bench

A. Rampersad M 0.00

A. Reid 15' F 6.54

N. Pierre 21' F 6.49

S. Astridge G 0.00

S. Zitman 30' M 5.80

Tavio Ciccarelli 15' F 6.60

Y. Baï 15' F 6.18

Cavalry FC 4-2-3-1

N. Ingham G 6.09

B. Kamdem D 6.22

A. Didic D 6.60

D. Klomp D 6.01

A. Pearlman D 7.02

E. Kobza M 6.43

H. Paton 77' M 6.34

N. Edwards 89' M 6.37

T. Warschewski 1 👟 M 7.70

A. Musse 1 ⚽ 76' M 7.48

C. Elva 1 ⚽ 80' F 8.20

Bench

C. De Sousa G 0.00

C. Ofori 1' D 0.00

G. Ntignee 14' F 6.48

M. Henry 10' M 6.05

N. Myroniuk M 0.00

Owen Graham-Roache F 0.00

Robert Owen Antoniuk F 0.00

Best on the pitch

C. Elva

F · Cavalry

8.20

1 ⚽

2 shots · 26 pass

R. Telfer

D · HFX

7.74

1 👟

1 shots · 50 pass

T. Warschewski

M · Cavalry

7.70

1 👟

4 shots · 24 pass

J. Bahamboula

F · HFX

7.65

1 ⚽

1 shots · 10 pass

A. Musse

M · Cavalry

7.48

1 ⚽

5 shots · 15 pass

T. Meilleur-Giguère

D · HFX

7.44

1 ⚽

2 shots · 67 pass

HFX Wanderers FC — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Carducci	G	90	6.35	—	—	0	25	23%	0	—	—
R. Telfer	D	90	7.74	—	1	1	50	45%	3	—	—
Kareem Sow	D	90	6.68	—	—	0	69	66%	2	—	—
T. Meilleur-Giguère	D	90	7.44	1	—	2	67	64%	2	—	—
Jefferson Alphonse	D	75	6.12	—	—	0	18	11%	3	—	—
L. Olguin	M	60	6.42	—	—	0	49	43%	2	—	—
L. Callegari	M	90	7.15	—	—	2	99	90%	4	1	—
Liam Mackenzie	M	69	6.40	—	—	2	8	6%	0	—	—
I. Johnston	M	75	6.82	—	—	2	36	30%	1	—	—
Miguel Arilla	M	75	6.62	—	1	1	17	15%	1	—	—
J. Bahamboula	F	90	7.65	1	—	1	10	8%	0	—	—
A. Reid	F	15	6.54	—	—	0	6	3%	1	—	—
N. Pierre	F	21	6.49	—	—	0	2	1%	0	—	—
S. Zitman	M	30	5.80	—	—	1	8	8%	1	1	—
Tavio Ciccarelli	F	15	6.60	—	—	1	1	1%	0	—	—
Y. Baï	F	15	6.18	—	—	1	8	6%	0	—	—

Cavalry FC — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
N. Ingham	G	90	6.09	—	—	0	28	17%	0	—	—
B. Kamdem	D	90	6.22	—	—	0	30	24%	2	1	—
A. Didic	D	90	6.60	—	—	0	34	29%	1	—	—
D. Klomp	D	90	6.01	—	—	0	36	30%	2	1	—
A. Pearlman	D	90	7.02	—	—	1	28	22%	2	—	—
E. Kobza	M	90	6.43	—	—	1	43	38%	1	1	—
H. Paton	M	77	6.34	—	—	1	29	26%	7	—	1
N. Edwards	M	89	6.37	—	—	4	19	16%	2	—	—
T. Warschewski	M	90	7.70	—	1	4	24	20%	0	—	—
A. Musse	M	76	7.48	1	—	5	15	15%	1	—	—
C. Elva	F	80	8.20	1	—	2	26	18%	1	—	—
C. Ofori	D	1	0.00	—	—	0	1	1%	1	—	—
G. Ntignee	F	14	6.48	—	—	0	1	0%	1	—	—
M. Henry	M	10	6.05	—	—	0	2	0%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?

The final score was HFX Wanderers FC 2–2 Cavalry FC.

What did the model predict before HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC?

The model assigned 31% probability to a HFX Wanderers FC win, 20% to a draw, and 48% to an Cavalry FC win.