Home United - Adelaide United
AFC Champions League Two
November 05, 2026 11:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
45.57%
Win
Home United
29.24%
Draw
25.18%
Win
Adelaide United
1.65
0.7
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(11.67%)
1X2 Result
1
46%
X
29%
2
25%
Double Chance
1X
75%
X2
54%
12
71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
53%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Home United a 45% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 25% for Adelaide United. Expected goals are 1.6 for Home United and 0.7 for Adelaide United (total 2.3), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.67% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Home United have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Adelaide United.
Season Stats
5W
2D
2L
2W
0D
1L
Averages per game
1.6
Goals
1.7
1.0
Conceded
1.0
5.5
Shots OT
5.5
8.0
Corners
4.0
55%
Poss.
55%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
100%
33%
O 2.5
67%
56%
BTTS
33%
33%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ
Based on the last 9 matches in AFC Champions League Two. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
100%
BTTS
2W
1D
1L
· at home
1W
0D
0L
· away
2.2
gls/g
2.0
1.8
Conceded
1.0
50%
Win %
100%
75%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
100%
75%
O 2.5
100%
50%
O 3.5
0%
100%
BTTS
100%
0%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Home United
Adelaide United →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5% | 6.7% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 15.7% | 11.0% | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | — |
| 2 | 12.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 7.1% | 5.0% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 2.9% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 5 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Home United
Attack
59
Defence
79
Form
73
Adelaide United
Attack
40
Defence
61
Form
56
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
0
Draw
0
29 Oct 2026
2–0
Group F
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Home United
|
3 | 7 |
| 2 |
Adelaide United
|
3 | 6 |
| 3 |
BG Pathum United
|
3 | 4 |
| 4 |
Wofoo Tai Po
|
3 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group F
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #2 |
| → Home United | #1 | #2 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Adelaide United | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Home United vs Adelaide United?
The model gives Home United a 45% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 25% for an Adelaide United win.
How many goals are expected in Home United vs Adelaide United?
Expected goals: Home United 1.6, Adelaide United 0.7 (total 2.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Home United vs Adelaide United?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.67%.