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Independiente Medellin - Flamengo

Copa Libertadores May 08, 2026 02:30
Independiente Medellin
#3 · 7 pts
vs
Flamengo
#1 · 16 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.04%
Win
Independiente Medellin
25.37%
Draw
43.59%
Win
Flamengo
1.31
Expected xG
1.59

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (11.5%)
1X2 Result ✓ 80.0% hit rate (10 picks)
1 31%
X 25%
2 44%
Double Chance
1X 56%
X2 69%
12 75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 71%
Over 2.5 55%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Flamengo a 43% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Independiente Medellin. Expected goals are 1.3 for Independiente Medellin and 1.6 for Flamengo (total 2.9), with a 71% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 11.5% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Independiente Medellin have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Flamengo.

Season Stats

Independiente Medellin
3W 3D 1L
Flamengo
2W 1D 0L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
2.3
1.1
Conceded
0.7
4.1
Shots OT
8.3
4.9
Corners
4.3
50%
Poss.
52%
Percentages
71%
O 1.5
100%
43%
O 2.5
33%
71%
BTTS
67%
29%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 7 matches in Copa Libertadores. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Independiente Medellin
2W 2D 0L · at home
Flamengo
1W 1D 0L · away
1.0
gls/g
1.5
0.5
Conceded
0.5
50%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
50%
O 1.5
100%
25%
O 2.5
0%
0%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
25%
Failed to Score
0%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Independiente Medellin Flamengo →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.5% 8.8% 7.0% 3.7% 1.5% 0.5%
1 7.2% 11.5% 9.1% 4.8% 1.9% 0.6%
2 4.7% 7.5% 6.0% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
3 2.1% 3.3% 2.6% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.7% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
L Estudiantes L.P. 1–0
W Cusco 2–3
W Cusco 1–0
L Flamengo 4–1
D Estudiantes L.P. 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 32%
Flamengo Flamengo
W Cusco 3–0
W Estudiantes L.P. 1–0
D Estudiantes L.P. 1–1
W Independiente Medellin 4–1
W Cusco 0–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 29%

Playing profile

Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
Attack
34
Defence
66
Form
56
Flamengo Flamengo
Attack
50
Defence
76
Form
70
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Independiente Medellin
0
Draw
1
Flamengo
17 Apr 2026 Copa Libertadores 1–4

Group A

# Team G Pts
1 Flamengo Flamengo 6 16
2 Estudiantes L.P. Estudiantes L.P. 6 9
3 Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 6 7
4 Cusco Cusco 6 1

What's at stake · Group A

Top 2 advance to the next round

Independiente Medellin Flamengo
Current #3 #1
→ Independiente Medellin #2 #1
→ Draw #3 #1
→ Flamengo #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?
The model gives Independiente Medellin a 31% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 43% for an Flamengo win.
How many goals are expected in Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?
Expected goals: Independiente Medellin 1.3, Flamengo 1.6 (total 2.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 71%.
What is the most likely score in Independiente Medellin vs Flamengo?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 11.5%.