Italy - France
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.72%
Win
Italy
31.04%
Draw
37.25%
Win
France
1.19
1.3
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(14.83%)
1X2 Result
1
32%
X
31%
2
37%
Double Chance
1X
63%
X2
68%
12
69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
81%
Over 2.5
61%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives France a 37% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 31% for Italy. Expected goals are 1.2 for Italy and 1.3 for France (total 2.5), with a 81% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 14.83% probability. In 3 previous meetings, Italy have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for France.
Season Stats
6W
3D
3L
9W
2D
3L
Averages per game
2.1
Goals
1.9
1.5
Conceded
1.1
5.2
Shots OT
6.5
3.8
Corners
6.6
49%
Poss.
59%
Percentages
92%
O 1.5
79%
75%
O 2.5
43%
83%
BTTS
50%
8%
Clean Sht
43%
ℹ
Based on the last 14 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
53%
O 3.5
67%
BTTS
2W
1D
3L
· at home
6W
0D
2L
· away
1.8
gls/g
2.1
1.8
Conceded
1.2
33%
Win %
75%
50%
Win or Draw
75%
100%
O 1.5
75%
83%
O 2.5
50%
67%
O 3.5
38%
83%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
38%
17%
Failed to Score
13%
last 8
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Italy
France →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3% | 10.8% | 7.0% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 9.9% | 12.8% | 8.3% | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| 2 | 5.9% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Italy
Attack
48
Defence
61
Form
53
France
Attack
57
Defence
76
Form
63
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Unavailable
France
Injured
What's at stake · League A - Group A
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #1 |
| → Italy | #2 | #1 |
| → Draw | #2 | #1 |
| → France | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Italy vs France?
The model gives Italy a 31% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 37% for an France win.
How many goals are expected in Italy vs France?
Expected goals: Italy 1.2, France 1.3 (total 2.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 81%.
What is the most likely score in Italy vs France?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.83%.