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Jagiellonia - Pogon Szczecin

Ekstraklasa December 16, 2026 18:00
Jagiellonia
#10 · 12 pts
vs
Pogon Szczecin
#5 · 15 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
38.64%
Win
Jagiellonia
29.66%
Draw
31.69%
Win
Pogon Szczecin
2.33
Expected xG
1.48

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.39%)
1X2 Result
1 39%
X 30%
2 32%
Double Chance
1X 68%
X2 61%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
✓ 84.6% hit rate (78 picks)
Over 2.5 54%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Jagiellonia a 38% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Pogon Szczecin. Expected goals are 2.3 for Jagiellonia and 1.5 for Pogon Szczecin (total 3.8), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.39% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Jagiellonia have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Pogon Szczecin.

Season Stats

Jagiellonia
8W 2D 5L
Pogon Szczecin
7W 5D 3L
Averages per game
1.7
Goals
1.5
1.3
Conceded
0.9
5.4
Shots OT
4.1
4.5
Corners
3.3
57%
Poss.
46%
Percentages
87%
O 1.5
80%
60%
O 2.5
40%
60%
BTTS
53%
27%
Clean Sht
40%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Ekstraklasa. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
15%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Jagiellonia
5W 1D 4L · at home
Pogon Szczecin
5W 2D 3L · away
1.2
gls/g
1.2
1.3
Conceded
0.9
50%
Win %
50%
60%
Win or Draw
70%
70%
O 1.5
70%
60%
O 2.5
30%
20%
O 3.5
10%
60%
BTTS
40%
30%
Clean Sht
50%
20%
Failed to Score
20%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Jagiellonia Pogon Szczecin →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 2.2% 3.3% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1%
1 5.2% 7.7% 5.7% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3%
2 6.0% 8.9% 6.6% 3.2% 1.2% 0.4%
3 4.7% 6.9% 5.1% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3%
4 2.7% 4.0% 3.0% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2%
5 1.3% 1.9% 1.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Recent form

Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
L Legia Warszawa 1–3
L Wisla Krakow 2–0
W Slask Wroclaw 2–1
L Lech Poznan 2–1
W Raków Częstochowa 2–5
Home clean sheet (120 days) 36%
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
W Piast Gliwice 1–2
W Wieczysta Kraków 2–0
D Wisla Plock 1–1
D Zaglebie Lubin 0–0
D Wisla Krakow 2–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
Attack
36
Defence
53
Form
49
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
Attack
36
Defence
59
Form
52
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

2
Jagiellonia
0
Draw
0
Pogon Szczecin
9 May 2026 Ekstraklasa 3–2
9 Nov 2025 Ekstraklasa 2–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 9 22
2 Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa 9 19
3 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 8 19
4 Wisla Krakow Wisla Krakow 9 17
5 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 8 15
6 Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 9 15
7 Zaglebie Lubin Zaglebie Lubin 9 15
8 Piast Gliwice Piast Gliwice 9 13
9 GKS Katowice GKS Katowice 8 12
10 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 8 12
11 Wisla Plock Wisla Plock 8 11
12 Widzew Łódź Widzew Łódź 9 9
13 Cracovia Krakow Cracovia Krakow 9 8
14 Radomiak Radom Radomiak Radom 9 8
15 Slask Wroclaw Slask Wroclaw 9 6
16 Motor Lublin Motor Lublin 9 6
17 Wieczysta Kraków Wieczysta Kraków 8 5
18 Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa 9 3
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
The model gives Jagiellonia a 38% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 31% for an Pogon Szczecin win.
How many goals are expected in Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 2.3, Pogon Szczecin 1.5 (total 3.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.39%.