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Scottish Premiership · Relegation Group - 37 May 12, 2026 20:45
Kilmarnock
#12 · 1 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Dundee
#6 · 7 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Kilmarnock
T. Lowery (ast. M. Schjonning-Larsen) 62'
J. Hugill 85' (pen.)
J. Hugill 90'+4
(og) 77' T. Lowery
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Kilmarnock a 57% win probability (draw 20%, Dundee 21%). The final result was Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee. In 4 previous meetings, Kilmarnock have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 2 wins for Dundee.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
2
2.77
Actual xG
0.46
2
Saves
5
52%
Possession
48%
6
Corners
2
6
Tackles
10
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
18'
F. Robertson
22'
B. Anderson
35'
R. Deas
38'
↕ B. Anderson / M. Watkins
58'
⚽T. Lowery · ast. M. Schjonning-Larsen
62'
67'
J. Bevan / C. Robertson ↕
68'
C. Reilly / S. Wright ↕
68'
J. Westley / A. Hay ↕
77'
(og) T. Lowery⚽
78'
C. Oosenbrugh / B. Halliday ↕
83'
J. Bevan
84'
K. O'Hara
⚽J. Hugill (pen.)
85'
86'
T. Yogane / J. Cotterill ↕
↕ M. Watkins / D. Watson
87'
↕ M. Schjonning-Larsen / L. Mayo
87'
L. Mayo
89'
↕ G. Kiltie / R. McKenzie
90'+2
⚽J. Hugill
90'+4
J. Hugill
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
57.78%
Kilmarnock ←
20.55%
X
21.67%
Dundee
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Kilmarnock) 57.78% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Kilmarnock
2.08
2.77
+0.69
Dundee
1.07
0.46
-0.61
Kilmarnock dominated by xG (2.77 vs 0.46). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Celtic Celtic 6 18
2 Rangers Rangers 6 13
3 Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian 5 12
4 ST Mirren ST Mirren 6 10
5 Motherwell Motherwell 5 8
6 Dundee Dundee 6 7
7 ST Johnstone ST Johnstone 6 7
8 Hibernian Hibernian 5 6
9 Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 6 5
10 Aberdeen Aberdeen 5 4
11 Falkirk Falkirk 5 2
12 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 5 1
Lineups
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 4-3-2-1
1 M. Stryjek M. Stryjek G 6.30
3 D. Thompson D. Thompson D 6.90
6 R. Deas R. Deas D 6.90
14 G. Stanger G. Stanger D 6.20
21 M. Schjønning-Larsen M. Schjønning-Larsen 1 👟 87' D 7.90
52 Findlay Curtis Findlay Curtis M 7.70
36 A. Tshibola A. Tshibola M 7.90
18 T. Lowery T. Lowery 2 ⚽ M 7.60
19
B. Anderson 58' M 6.30
11 G. Kiltie G. Kiltie M 6.90
44 J. Hugill J. Hugill 2 ⚽ F 6.00
Bench
12 D. Watson D. Watson 7' M
30 Kieran Wright Kieran Wright G
16 Kyle Magennis Kyle Magennis M
5 L. Mayo L. Mayo 7' D
31
L. Polworth M
23 Marley Watkins Marley Watkins 29' F 6.30
20 N. Cleșcenco N. Cleșcenco F
7 R. McKenzie R. McKenzie 2' M
4 Zac Williams Zac Williams D
Dundee Dundee 3-5-2
13 K. O'Hara K. O'Hara G 7.00
5 Billy Koumetio Billy Koumetio D 6.30
3 Clark Robertson Clark Robertson 67' D 7.30
4 R. Astley R. Astley D 7.20
12 I. Samuels I. Samuels M 6.70
10 F. Robertson F. Robertson M 6.30
24 Joel Cotterill Joel Cotterill 86' M 6.60
28 C. Jones C. Jones M 6.60
16 B. Halliday B. Halliday 78' M 6.50
25 Scott Wright Scott Wright 68' F 6.90
11 Ashley Hay Ashley Hay 68' F 6.30
Bench
52 Charley Oosenbrugh Charley Oosenbrugh 16' M 5.90
18 C. Reilly C. Reilly 26' F 6.60
38 Francisco Valenzuela Francisco Valenzuela M
30 Harrison Sharp Harrison Sharp G
27 J. Bevan J. Bevan 27' F 6.30
19 J. Westley J. Westley 26' F 6.30
14 Lewis Montsma Lewis Montsma D
8 Paul Digby Paul Digby M
17 Tony Yogane Tony Yogane 8' M 6.70
Best on the pitch
M. Schjønning-Larsen
M. Schjønning-Larsen
D · Kilmarnock
7.90
1 👟
2 shots · 43 pass
A. Tshibola
A. Tshibola
M · Kilmarnock
7.90
· 75 pass
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis
M · Kilmarnock
7.70
3 shots · 20 pass
T. Lowery
T. Lowery
M · Kilmarnock
7.60
2 ⚽
2 shots · 49 pass
Clark Robertson
Clark Robertson
D · Dundee
7.30
1 shots · 39 pass
R. Astley
R. Astley
D · Dundee
7.20
1 shots · 43 pass
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Stryjek G 94 6.30 — — — 18 6% — — —
D. Thompson D 94 6.90 — — 1 63 51% 2 — —
R. Deas D 94 6.90 — — — 62 55% — 1 —
G. Stanger D 94 6.20 — — — 54 43% — — —
M. Schjønning-Larsen D 87 7.90 — 1 2 43 37% 1 — —
Findlay Curtis M 94 7.70 — — 3 20 16% — — —
A. Tshibola M 94 7.90 — — — 75 64% — — —
T. Lowery M 94 7.60 2 — 2 49 42% 1 — —
B. Anderson M 58 6.30 — — 1 11 10% — 1 —
G. Kiltie M 92 6.90 — — 1 28 24% — — —
J. Hugill F 94 6.00 2 — 2 13 7% — — —
D. Watson M 7 — — — — — — 1 — —
L. Mayo D 7 — — — — 1 — — 1 —
Marley Watkins F 29 6.30 — — — 5 4% 1 — —
R. McKenzie M 2 — — — 1 — — — — —
Dundee Dundee — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
K. O'Hara G 94 7.00 — — — 34 22% — 1 —
Billy Koumetio D 94 6.30 — — — 43 30% — — —
Clark Robertson D 67 7.30 — — 1 39 36% — — —
R. Astley D 94 7.20 — — 1 43 34% 1 — —
I. Samuels M 94 6.70 — — — 40 33% — — —
F. Robertson M 94 6.30 — — — 41 34% 2 1 —
Joel Cotterill M 86 6.60 — — — 31 24% 2 — —
C. Jones M 94 6.60 — — — 45 36% 4 — —
B. Halliday M 78 6.50 — — — 28 21% — — —
Scott Wright F 68 6.90 — — — 25 19% — — —
Ashley Hay F 68 6.30 — — 1 18 9% — — —
Charley Oosenbrugh M 16 5.90 — — — 4 1% — — —
C. Reilly F 26 6.60 — — 2 10 9% — — —
J. Bevan F 27 6.30 — — — 9 7% 1 1 —
J. Westley F 26 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
Tony Yogane M 8 6.70 — — — 1 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
The final score was Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee.
What did the model predict before Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Kilmarnock win, 20% to a draw, and 21% to an Dundee win.