← Scottish Premiership
Scottish Premiership · Relegation Group - 37 May 12, 2026 20:45
Kilmarnock
#4 · 37 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Dundee
#3 · 39 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Kilmarnock
T. Lowery (ast. M. Schjonning-Larsen) 62'
J. Hugill 85' (pen.)
J. Hugill 90'+4
(og) 77' T. Lowery

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Kilmarnock a 57% win probability (draw 20%, Dundee 21%). The final result was Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee. In 4 previous meetings, Kilmarnock have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 2 wins for Dundee.

Match statistics
13
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
2
2.77
Actual xG
0.46
2
Saves
5
52%
Possession
48%
6
Corners
2
6
Tackles
10
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
18'
F. Robertson
22'
B. Anderson
35'
R. Deas
38'
↕ B. Anderson / M. Watkins
58'
⚽T. Lowery · ast. M. Schjonning-Larsen
62'
67'
J. Bevan / C. Robertson ↕
68'
C. Reilly / S. Wright ↕
68'
J. Westley / A. Hay ↕
77'
(og) T. Lowery⚽
78'
C. Oosenbrugh / B. Halliday ↕
83'
J. Bevan
84'
K. O'Hara
⚽J. Hugill (pen.)
85'
86'
T. Yogane / J. Cotterill ↕
↕ M. Watkins / D. Watson
87'
↕ M. Schjonning-Larsen / L. Mayo
87'
L. Mayo
89'
↕ G. Kiltie / R. McKenzie
90'+2
⚽J. Hugill
90'+4
J. Hugill
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
57.78%
Kilmarnock ←
20.55%
X
21.67%
Dundee
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Kilmarnock) 57.78% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Kilmarnock
2.08
2.77
+0.69
Dundee
1.07
0.46
-0.61
Kilmarnock dominated by xG (2.77 vs 0.46). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian 33 70
1 Heart Of Midlothian Heart Of Midlothian 37 80
1 Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 37 44
2 Rangers Rangers 33 69
2 Celtic Celtic 37 79
2 Aberdeen Aberdeen 37 40
3 Dundee Dundee 37 39
3 Celtic Celtic 33 67
3 Rangers Rangers 37 69
4 Motherwell Motherwell 37 58
4 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 37 37
4 Motherwell Motherwell 33 54
5 ST Mirren ST Mirren 37 33
5 Hibernian Hibernian 33 51
5 Hibernian Hibernian 37 57
6 Livingston Livingston 37 21
6 Falkirk Falkirk 33 46
6 Falkirk Falkirk 37 49
7 Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 33 40
8 Aberdeen Aberdeen 33 33
9 Dundee Dundee 33 33
10 ST Mirren ST Mirren 33 30
11 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 33 28
12 Livingston Livingston 33 16
Lineups
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 4-3-2-1
1 Max Stryjek Max Stryjek G 6.30
3 Dominic Thompson Dominic Thompson D 6.90
6 Robbie Deas Robbie Deas D 6.90
14 George Stanger George Stanger D 6.20
21 Michael Schjønning-Larsen Michael Schjønning-Larsen 1 👟 87' D 7.90
52 Findlay Curtis Findlay Curtis M 7.70
36 Aaron Tshibola Aaron Tshibola M 7.90
18 Tom Lowery Tom Lowery 2 ⚽ M 7.60
19 Bruce Anderson Bruce Anderson 58' M 6.30
11 Greg Kiltie Greg Kiltie M 6.90
44 Joe Hugill Joe Hugill 2 ⚽ F 6.00
Bench
12 David Watson David Watson 7' M
30 Kieran Wright Kieran Wright G
16 Kyle Magennis Kyle Magennis M
5 Lewis Mayo Lewis Mayo 7' D
31 Liam Polworth Liam Polworth M
23 Marley Watkins Marley Watkins 29' F 6.30
20 Nicky Cleșcenco Nicky Cleșcenco F
7 Rory McKenzie Rory McKenzie 2' M
4 Zac Williams Zac Williams D
Dundee Dundee 3-5-2
13 Kieran O'Hara Kieran O'Hara G 7.00
5 Billy Koumetio Billy Koumetio D 6.30
3 Clark Robertson Clark Robertson 67' D 7.30
4 Ryan Astley Ryan Astley D 7.20
12 Imari Samuels Imari Samuels M 6.70
10 Finlay Robertson Finlay Robertson M 6.30
24 Joel Cotterill Joel Cotterill 86' M 6.60
28 Callum Jones Callum Jones M 6.60
16 Brad Halliday Brad Halliday 78' M 6.50
25 Scott Wright Scott Wright 68' F 6.90
11 Ashley Hay Ashley Hay 68' F 6.30
Bench
52 Charley Oosenbrugh Charley Oosenbrugh 16' M 5.90
18 Charlie Reilly Charlie Reilly 26' F 6.60
38 Francisco Valenzuela Francisco Valenzuela M
30 Harrison Sharp Harrison Sharp G
27 Joe Bevan Joe Bevan 27' F 6.30
19 Joe Westley Joe Westley 26' F 6.30
14 Lewis Montsma Lewis Montsma D
8 Paul Digby Paul Digby M
17 Tony Yogane Tony Yogane 8' M 6.70
Best on the pitch
Michael Schjønning-Larsen
Michael Schjønning-Larsen
D · Kilmarnock
7.90
1 👟
2 shots · 43 pass
Aaron Tshibola
Aaron Tshibola
M · Kilmarnock
7.90
· 75 pass
Findlay Curtis
Findlay Curtis
M · Kilmarnock
7.70
3 shots · 20 pass
Tom Lowery
Tom Lowery
M · Kilmarnock
7.60
2 ⚽
2 shots · 49 pass
Clark Robertson
Clark Robertson
D · Dundee
7.30
1 shots · 39 pass
Ryan Astley
Ryan Astley
D · Dundee
7.20
1 shots · 43 pass
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Max Stryjek G 94 6.30 — — — 18 6% — — —
Dominic Thompson D 94 6.90 — — 1 63 51% 2 — —
Robbie Deas D 94 6.90 — — — 62 55% — 1 —
George Stanger D 94 6.20 — — — 54 43% — — —
Michael Schjønning-Larsen D 87 7.90 — 1 2 43 37% 1 — —
Findlay Curtis M 94 7.70 — — 3 20 16% — — —
Aaron Tshibola M 94 7.90 — — — 75 64% — — —
Tom Lowery M 94 7.60 2 — 2 49 42% 1 — —
Bruce Anderson M 58 6.30 — — 1 11 10% — 1 —
Greg Kiltie M 92 6.90 — — 1 28 24% — — —
Joe Hugill F 94 6.00 2 — 2 13 7% — — —
David Watson M 7 — — — — — — 1 — —
Lewis Mayo D 7 — — — — 1 — — 1 —
Marley Watkins F 29 6.30 — — — 5 4% 1 — —
Rory McKenzie M 2 — — — 1 — — — — —
Dundee Dundee — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Kieran O'Hara G 94 7.00 — — — 34 22% — 1 —
Billy Koumetio D 94 6.30 — — — 43 30% — — —
Clark Robertson D 67 7.30 — — 1 39 36% — — —
Ryan Astley D 94 7.20 — — 1 43 34% 1 — —
Imari Samuels M 94 6.70 — — — 40 33% — — —
Finlay Robertson M 94 6.30 — — — 41 34% 2 1 —
Joel Cotterill M 86 6.60 — — — 31 24% 2 — —
Callum Jones M 94 6.60 — — — 45 36% 4 — —
Brad Halliday M 78 6.50 — — — 28 21% — — —
Scott Wright F 68 6.90 — — — 25 19% — — —
Ashley Hay F 68 6.30 — — 1 18 9% — — —
Charley Oosenbrugh M 16 5.90 — — — 4 1% — — —
Charlie Reilly F 26 6.60 — — 2 10 9% — — —
Joe Bevan F 27 6.30 — — — 9 7% 1 1 —
Joe Westley F 26 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
Tony Yogane M 8 6.70 — — — 1 1% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
The final score was Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee.
What did the model predict before Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Kilmarnock win, 20% to a draw, and 21% to an Dundee win.