Scottish Premiership
· Relegation Group - 37
May 12, 2026 20:45
✓Model correct — prediction Kilmarnock
T. Lowery
(ast. M. Schjonning-Larsen)
62'
J. Hugill
85'
(pen.)
J. Hugill
90'+4
(og)
77'
T. Lowery
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Kilmarnock a 57% win probability (draw 20%, Dundee 21%). The final result was Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee. In 4 previous meetings, Kilmarnock have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 2 wins for Dundee.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
5
7
Shots on target
2
2.77
Actual xG
0.46
2
Saves
5
52%
Possession
48%
6
Corners
2
6
Tackles
10
3
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
18'
F. Robertson
22'
B. Anderson
35'
R. Deas
38'
B. Anderson
/ M. Watkins
58'
⚽T. Lowery
· ast. M. Schjonning-Larsen
62'
67'
J. Bevan
/
C. Robertson
68'
C. Reilly
/
S. Wright
68'
J. Westley
/
A. Hay
77'
(og)
T. Lowery⚽
78'
C. Oosenbrugh
/
B. Halliday
83'
J. Bevan
84'
K. O'Hara
⚽J. Hugill
(pen.)
85'
86'
T. Yogane
/
J. Cotterill
M. Watkins
/ D. Watson
87'
M. Schjonning-Larsen
/ L. Mayo
87'
L. Mayo
89'
G. Kiltie
/ R. McKenzie
90'+2
⚽J. Hugill
90'+4
J. Hugill
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
57.78%
Kilmarnock ←
20.55%
X
21.67%
Dundee
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Kilmarnock)
57.78%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.08
2.77
+0.69
1.07
0.46
-0.61
Kilmarnock dominated by xG (2.77 vs 0.46).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Max Stryjek
G
Max Stryjek
G
3
Dominic Thompson
D
Dominic Thompson
D
6
R. Deas
D
R. Deas
D
14
George Stanger
D
George Stanger
D
21
Michael Schjønning-Larsen
1 👟
87'
D
Michael Schjønning-Larsen
1 👟
87'
D
52
Findlay Curtis
M
Findlay Curtis
M
36
Aaron Tshibola
M
Aaron Tshibola
M
18
Tom Lowery
2 ⚽
M
Tom Lowery
2 ⚽
M
19
Bruce Anderson
58'
M
Bruce Anderson
58'
M
11
G. Kiltie
M
G. Kiltie
M
44
J. Hugill
2 ⚽
F
J. Hugill
2 ⚽
F
Bench
12
D. Watson
7'
M
D. Watson
7'
M
30
Kieran Wright
G
Kieran Wright
G
16
Kyle Magennis
M
Kyle Magennis
M
5
Lewis Mayo
7'
D
Lewis Mayo
7'
D
31
Liam Polworth
M
Liam Polworth
M
23
Marley Watkins
29'
F
Marley Watkins
29'
F
20
Nicky Cleșcenco
F
7
Rory McKenzie
2'
M
Rory McKenzie
2'
M
4
Zac Williams
D
Zac Williams
D
13
Kieran O'Hara
G
Kieran O'Hara
G
5
Billy Koumetio
D
Billy Koumetio
D
3
Clark Robertson
67'
D
Clark Robertson
67'
D
4
Ryan Astley
D
Ryan Astley
D
12
Imari Samuels
M
Imari Samuels
M
10
Finlay Robertson
M
Finlay Robertson
M
24
Joel Cotterill
86'
M
Joel Cotterill
86'
M
28
Callum Jones
M
Callum Jones
M
16
Brad Halliday
78'
M
Brad Halliday
78'
M
25
Scott Wright
68'
F
Scott Wright
68'
F
11
Ashley Hay
68'
F
Ashley Hay
68'
F
Bench
52
Charley Oosenbrugh
16'
M
Charley Oosenbrugh
16'
M
18
Charlie Reilly
26'
F
Charlie Reilly
26'
F
38
Francisco Valenzuela
M
Francisco Valenzuela
M
30
Harrison Sharp
G
Harrison Sharp
G
27
Joe Bevan
27'
F
Joe Bevan
27'
F
19
Joe Westley
26'
F
Joe Westley
26'
F
14
Lewis Montsma
D
Lewis Montsma
D
8
Paul Digby
M
Paul Digby
M
17
Tony Yogane
8'
M
Tony Yogane
8'
M
Best on the pitch
Michael Schjønning-Larsen
D · Kilmarnock
7.90
1 👟
2 shots
· 43 pass
Aaron Tshibola
M · Kilmarnock
7.90
· 75 pass
Findlay Curtis
M · Kilmarnock
7.70
3 shots
· 20 pass
Tom Lowery
M · Kilmarnock
7.60
2 ⚽
2 shots
· 49 pass
Clark Robertson
D · Dundee
7.30
1 shots
· 39 pass
Ryan Astley
D · Dundee
7.20
1 shots
· 43 pass
Kilmarnock — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Stryjek | G | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Dominic Thompson | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 63 | 51% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Deas | D | 94 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 62 | 55% | — | 1 | — |
| George Stanger | D | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 54 | 43% | — | — | — |
| Michael Schjønning-Larsen | D | 87 | 7.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 43 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| Findlay Curtis | M | 94 | 7.70 | — | — | 3 | 20 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Aaron Tshibola | M | 94 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 75 | 64% | — | — | — |
| Tom Lowery | M | 94 | 7.60 | 2 | — | 2 | 49 | 42% | 1 | — | — |
| Bruce Anderson | M | 58 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| G. Kiltie | M | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| J. Hugill | F | 94 | 6.00 | 2 | — | 2 | 13 | 7% | — | — | — |
| D. Watson | M | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
| Lewis Mayo | D | 7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Marley Watkins | F | 29 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Rory McKenzie | M | 2 | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
Dundee — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kieran O'Hara | G | 94 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 22% | — | 1 | — |
| Billy Koumetio | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 43 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Clark Robertson | D | 67 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 36% | — | — | — |
| Ryan Astley | D | 94 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 34% | 1 | — | — |
| Imari Samuels | M | 94 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 40 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Finlay Robertson | M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 34% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Joel Cotterill | M | 86 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 31 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Callum Jones | M | 94 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 45 | 36% | 4 | — | — |
| Brad Halliday | M | 78 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Scott Wright | F | 68 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Ashley Hay | F | 68 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Charley Oosenbrugh | M | 16 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Charlie Reilly | F | 26 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Joe Bevan | F | 27 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Joe Westley | F | 26 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Tony Yogane | M | 8 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
The final score was Kilmarnock 3–1 Dundee.
What did the model predict before Kilmarnock vs Dundee?
The model assigned 57% probability to a Kilmarnock win, 20% to a draw, and 21% to an Dundee win.