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Lecce - Genoa

Serie A November 01, 2026 18:00
Lecce
#12 · 9 pts
vs
Genoa
#16 · 7 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
36.33%
Win
Lecce
33.79%
Draw
29.89%
Win
Genoa
0.87
Expected xG
0.66

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (13.18%)
1X2 Result
1 36%
X 34%
2 30%
Double Chance
1X 70%
X2 64%
12 66%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
✓ 85.5% hit rate (83 picks)
Over 2.5 52%
✓ 60.3% hit rate (73 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Lecce a 36% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 29% for Genoa. Expected goals are 0.9 for Lecce and 0.7 for Genoa (total 1.5), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.18% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Lecce have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Genoa.

Season Stats

Lecce
6W 2D 7L
Genoa
4W 3D 8L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
0.7
1.4
Conceded
1.3
3.9
Shots OT
3.0
4.1
Corners
3.9
40%
Poss.
49%
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
67%
47%
O 2.5
40%
33%
BTTS
47%
27%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Serie A. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
10%
O 3.5
30%
BTTS
Lecce
3W 1D 6L · at home
Genoa
2W 2D 6L · away
0.8
gls/g
0.5
1.8
Conceded
1.1
30%
Win %
20%
40%
Win or Draw
40%
80%
O 1.5
60%
50%
O 2.5
20%
20%
O 3.5
0%
40%
BTTS
20%
10%
Clean Sht
30%
50%
Failed to Score
70%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Lecce Genoa →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 21.7% 14.3% 4.7% 1.0% 0.2% —
1 18.9% 12.4% 4.1% 0.9% 0.1% —
2 8.2% 5.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% —
3 2.4% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% — —
4 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% — — —
5 0.1% 0.1% — — — —

Recent form

Lecce Lecce
L Juventus 0–2
W Udinese 0–3
L Bologna 1–2
L AC Milan 3–0
W Monza 3–2
Home clean sheet (120 days) 19%
Genoa Genoa
W Venezia 1–0
L AS Roma 2–0
W Fiorentina 2–1
L Parma 2–1
D Frosinone 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 22%

Playing profile

Lecce Lecce
Attack
35
Defence
50
Form
39
Genoa Genoa
Attack
25
Defence
59
Form
33
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Lecce
1
Draw
0
Genoa
24 May 2026 Serie A 1–0
23 Aug 2025 Serie A 0–0

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Lazio Lazio 9 25
2 Inter Inter 8 22
3 AS Roma AS Roma 9 21
4 Como Como 9 20
5 AC Milan AC Milan 8 18
6 Frosinone Frosinone 8 14
7 Juventus Juventus 8 14
8 Torino Torino 9 13
9 Cagliari Cagliari 9 13
10 Napoli Napoli 8 11
11 Atalanta Atalanta 8 10
12 Lecce Lecce 8 9
13 Bologna Bologna 8 8
14 Sassuolo Sassuolo 9 8
15 Monza Monza 8 7
16 Genoa Genoa 8 7
17 Udinese Udinese 8 4
18 Fiorentina Fiorentina 8 4
19 Parma Parma 8 4
20 Venezia Venezia 8 3
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Lecce vs Genoa?
The model gives Lecce a 36% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 29% for an Genoa win.
How many goals are expected in Lecce vs Genoa?
Expected goals: Lecce 0.9, Genoa 0.7 (total 1.5). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in Lecce vs Genoa?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.18%.