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Leones Negros UDG - Durango

Liga de Expansión MX November 08, 2026 19:00 Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara
Leones Negros UDG
#2 · 30 pts
vs
Durango
#7 · 24 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 25.0°C 💨 6 km/h · Guadalajara
⚡ Pre-match analysis
39.79%
Win
Leones Negros UDG
19.93%
Draw
40.28%
Win
Durango
1.98
Expected xG
2.05

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–2 (7.42%)
1X2 Result
1 40%
X 20%
2 40%
Double Chance
1X 60%
X2 60%
12 80%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 70%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Durango a 40% win probability, against 19% for a draw and 39% for Leones Negros UDG. Expected goals are 2.0 for Leones Negros UDG and 2.1 for Durango (total 4.0), with a 83% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–2 at 7.42% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Leones Negros UDG have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Durango.

Season Stats

Leones Negros UDG
8W 3D 4L
Durango
7W 3D 5L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
1.4
1.3
Conceded
1.0
Percentages
93%
O 1.5
60%
60%
O 2.5
40%
67%
BTTS
33%
20%
Clean Sht
47%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Liga de Expansión MX. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
37%
O 3.5
47%
BTTS
Leones Negros UDG
4W 2D 4L · at home
Durango
3W 2D 3L · away
2.2
gls/g
0.6
1.7
Conceded
0.8
40%
Win %
38%
60%
Win or Draw
63%
100%
O 1.5
25%
80%
O 2.5
13%
60%
O 3.5
13%
80%
BTTS
13%
20%
Clean Sht
63%
0%
Failed to Score
50%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Leones Negros UDG Durango →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.8% 3.6% 3.7% 2.6% 1.3% 0.5%
1 3.5% 7.2% 7.4% 5.1% 2.6% 1.1%
2 3.5% 7.1% 7.3% 5.0% 2.6% 1.1%
3 2.3% 4.7% 4.8% 3.3% 1.7% 0.7%
4 1.1% 2.3% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% 0.3%
5 0.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%

Recent form

Leones Negros UDG Leones Negros UDG
L Durango 1–0
W Tepatitlán 3–1
W Mineros de Zacatecas 0–2
L Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–2
D Venados FC 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Durango Durango
W Leones Negros UDG 1–0
W Monarcas 3–1
L Venados FC 3–2
W Tapatío 5–0
D CDS Tampico Madero 0–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 47%

Playing profile

Leones Negros UDG Leones Negros UDG
Attack
41
Defence
67
Form
59
Durango Durango
Attack
53
Defence
81
Form
63
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Leones Negros UDG
0
Draw
1
Durango
6 Nov 2026 Liga de Expansión MX 0–1
23 Aug 2026 Liga de Expansión MX 2–1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Durango?
The model gives Leones Negros UDG a 39% win probability, 19% for a draw, and 40% for an Durango win.
How many goals are expected in Leones Negros UDG vs Durango?
Expected goals: Leones Negros UDG 2.0, Durango 2.1 (total 4.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 83%.
What is the most likely score in Leones Negros UDG vs Durango?
1–2 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.42%.