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Luxembourg - Estonia

UEFA Nations League November 13, 2026 20:45 Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City
Luxembourg
#4 · 3 pts
vs
Estonia
#2 · 6 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
29.55%
Win
Luxembourg
41.35%
Draw
29.09%
Win
Estonia
0.72
Expected xG
0.73

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–0 (25.39%)
1X2 Result
1 30%
X 41%
2 29%
Double Chance
1X 71%
X2 70%
12 59%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 45%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Luxembourg a 29% win probability, against 41% for a draw and 29% for Estonia. Expected goals are 0.7 for Luxembourg and 0.7 for Estonia (total 1.4), with a 69% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 25.39% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Luxembourg have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Estonia.

Season Stats

Luxembourg
3W 3D 6L
Estonia
2W 4D 4L
Averages per game
0.8
Goals
0.5
1.2
Conceded
1.0
3.2
Shots OT
2.9
3.4
Corners
3.0
58%
Poss.
37%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
40%
33%
O 2.5
30%
25%
BTTS
20%
25%
Clean Sht
40%
ℹ Based on the last 12 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
9%
O 3.5
19%
BTTS
Luxembourg
1W 1D 4L · at home
Estonia
0W 3D 2L · away
0.8
gls/g
0.2
1.5
Conceded
1.0
17%
Win %
0%
33%
Win or Draw
60%
67%
O 1.5
40%
50%
O 2.5
20%
17%
O 3.5
0%
17%
BTTS
20%
17%
Clean Sht
40%
67%
Failed to Score
80%
last 6
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Luxembourg Estonia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 23.5% 17.2% 6.3% 1.5% 0.3% —
1 16.8% 12.3% 4.5% 1.1% 0.2% —
2 6.0% 4.4% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% —
3 1.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% — —
4 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Luxembourg Luxembourg
L Bulgaria 0–2
L Estonia 1–0
L Iceland 0–3
W Bulgaria 1–2
W Malta 3–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Estonia Estonia
D Iceland 0–0
W Luxembourg 1–0
D Bulgaria 0–0
D Iceland 1–1
L Slovakia 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

Luxembourg Luxembourg
Attack
29
Defence
56
Form
18
Estonia Estonia
Attack
29
Defence
76
Form
42
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Luxembourg
0
Draw
1
Estonia
3 Oct 2026 UEFA Nations League 0–1

League C - Group D

# Team G Pts
1 Iceland Iceland 4 8
2 Estonia Estonia 4 6
3 Bulgaria Bulgaria 4 4
4 Luxembourg Luxembourg 4 3

What's at stake · League C - Group D

Top 2 advance to the next round

Luxembourg Estonia
Current #4 #2
→ Luxembourg #3 #2
→ Draw #4 #2
→ Estonia #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Luxembourg vs Estonia?
The model gives Luxembourg a 29% win probability, 41% for a draw, and 29% for an Estonia win.
How many goals are expected in Luxembourg vs Estonia?
Expected goals: Luxembourg 0.7, Estonia 0.7 (total 1.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 69%.
What is the most likely score in Luxembourg vs Estonia?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 25.39%.