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Serie B · Regular Season - 37 May 01, 2026 15:00 Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
Mantova
#3 · 7 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Monza
R. Kouda (ast. S. Trimboli) 23'
L. Mancuso (ast. T. Marras) 35'
F. Benaissa-Yahia (ast. S. Trimboli) 90'+5
78' L. Lucchesi
88' (ast. Hernani) D. Mota
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mantova a 36% win probability (draw 28%, Monza 35%). The final result was Mantova 3–2 Monza. In 1 previous meetings, Mantova have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Monza.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
18
7
Shots on target
10
1.97
Actual xG
2.14
6
Saves
4
44%
Possession
56%
0
Corners
7
16
Tackles
11
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
A. Dembele
11'
⚽R. Kouda · ast. S. Trimboli
23'
28'
A. Petagna
⚽L. Mancuso · ast. T. Marras
35'
56'
G. Caso / A. Colpani ↕
56'
A. Bakoune / F. Delli Carri ↕
56'
Hernani / P. Obiang ↕
57'
Hernani
S. Cella
59'
65'
D. Mota / P. Azzi ↕
↕ T. Marras / C. Falletti
73'
↕ F. Ruocco / F. Paoletti
73'
74'
A. Alvarez / A. Petagna ↕
78'
L. Lucchesi⚽
↕ R. Kouda / N. Buso
80'
↕ L. Mancuso / D. Wieser
80'
F. Paoletti
88'
88'
ast. Hernani · D. Mota⚽
⚽F. Benaissa-Yahia · ast. S. Trimboli
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
36.28%
Mantova ←
28.49%
X
35.23%
Monza
we assigned to the actual result (Mantova) 36.28% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Mantova
1.46
1.97
+0.51
Monza
1.16
2.14
+0.98
xG dominance was balanced (1.97 – 2.14). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Palermo Palermo 3 9
2 Sudtirol Sudtirol 4 8
3 Mantova Mantova 3 7
4 Modena Modena 4 7
5 Ascoli Ascoli 4 7
6 Padova Padova 4 7
7 Arezzo Arezzo 4 6
8 Pisa Pisa 4 6
9 Avellino Avellino 3 6
10 Empoli Empoli 4 6
11 Cesena Cesena 3 5
12 Vicenza Virtus Vicenza Virtus 4 5
13 Benevento Benevento 4 4
14 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 4 4
15 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 4 4
16 Cremonese Cremonese 3 3
17 Catanzaro Catanzaro 4 3
18 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 4 2
19 Sampdoria Sampdoria 3 1
20 Carrarese Carrarese 4 1
Lineups
Mantova Mantova 3-4-2-1
24
G 7.90
27 A. Castellini A. Castellini D 7.00
29 S. Cella S. Cella D 7.00
3 A. Dembélé A. Dembélé D 6.20
50 F. Benaissa-Yahia F. Benaissa-Yahia 1 ⚽ M 8.20
80 R. Kouda R. Kouda 1 ⚽ 80' M 8.30
21 S. Trimboli S. Trimboli 2 👟 M 9.30
96 T. Maggioni T. Maggioni M 6.30
19 F. Ruocco F. Ruocco 73' F 7.00
23 Tommaso Marras Tommaso Marras 1 👟 73' F 6.60
9 L. Mancuso L. Mancuso 1 ⚽ 80' F 7.30
Bench
10 D. Wieser D. Wieser 10' M 7.20
36 F. Paoletti F. Paoletti 17' M 6.00
77 N. Buso N. Buso 10' F 7.30
Monza Monza 3-4-2-1
20
G 7.00
3 L. Lucchesi L. Lucchesi 1 ⚽ D 6.60
15 F. Delli Carri F. Delli Carri 56' D 5.90
13
D 6.60
7 Paulo Azzi Paulo Azzi 65' M 6.30
32 Matteo Pessina Matteo Pessina M 7.20
14 Pedro Obiang Pedro Obiang 56' M 6.50
19 S. Birindelli S. Birindelli M 6.20
10 P. Cutrone P. Cutrone F 6.30
28 A. Colpani A. Colpani 56' F 6.90
37 A. Petagna A. Petagna 73' F 6.20
Bench
24 A. Bakoune A. Bakoune 34' D 6.20
47 Dany Mota Dany Mota 1 ⚽ 25' F 7.50
30 G. Caso G. Caso 34' M 6.90
8 Hernani Hernani 1 👟 34' M 7.20
17 K. Baldé K. Baldé F
Best on the pitch
S. Trimboli
S. Trimboli
M · Mantova
9.30
2 👟
1 shots · 52 pass
R. Kouda
R. Kouda
M · Mantova
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 32 pass
F. Benaissa-Yahia
F. Benaissa-Yahia
M · Mantova
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 27 pass
G · Mantova
7.90
· 31 pass
Dany Mota
Dany Mota
F · Monza
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 16 pass
N. Buso
N. Buso
F · Mantova
7.30
· 6 pass
Mantova Mantova — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.90 — — — 31 16% — — —
A. Castellini D 90 7.00 — — 1 41 33% 5 — —
S. Cella D 90 7.00 — — — 25 22% — 1 —
A. Dembélé D 90 6.20 — — — 36 31% 1 1 —
F. Benaissa-Yahia M 90 8.20 1 — 1 27 22% 1 — —
R. Kouda M 80 8.30 1 — 1 32 27% 1 — —
S. Trimboli M 90 9.30 — 2 1 52 43% 3 — —
T. Maggioni M 90 6.30 — — — 25 17% 1 — —
F. Ruocco F 73 7.00 — — — 22 16% 3 — —
Tommaso Marras F 73 6.60 — 1 4 25 22% — — —
L. Mancuso F 80 7.30 1 — 5 16 13% — — —
D. Wieser M 10 7.20 — — 1 7 6% 1 — —
F. Paoletti M 17 6.00 — — 2 6 5% — 1 —
N. Buso F 10 7.30 — — — 6 4% — — —
Monza Monza — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.00 — — — 47 33% — — —
L. Lucchesi D 90 6.60 1 — 1 43 41% 2 — —
F. Delli Carri D 56 5.90 — — 1 15 13% 1 — —
D 90 6.60 — — 1 56 47% 1 — —
Paulo Azzi M 65 6.30 — — — 27 22% 1 — —
Matteo Pessina M 90 7.20 — — 1 60 50% — — —
Pedro Obiang M 56 6.50 — — 1 30 26% 1 — —
S. Birindelli M 90 6.20 — — — 42 29% 3 — —
P. Cutrone F 90 6.30 — — 3 24 17% — — —
A. Colpani F 56 6.90 — — 1 14 10% — — —
A. Petagna F 73 6.20 — — 2 21 20% — 1 —
A. Bakoune D 34 6.20 — — 1 10 8% 1 — —
Dany Mota F 25 7.50 1 — 1 16 14% — — —
G. Caso M 34 6.90 — — 3 12 11% — — —
Hernani M 34 7.20 — 1 2 19 16% 1 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mantova vs Monza?
The final score was Mantova 3–2 Monza.
What did the model predict before Mantova vs Monza?
The model assigned 36% probability to a Mantova win, 28% to a draw, and 35% to an Monza win.