← Serie B
Serie B · Regular Season - 37 May 01, 2026 15:00
Mantova
#9 · 46 pts
3 – 2
Final score
Monza
#3 · 76 pts
R. Kouda (ast. S. Trimboli) 23'
L. Mancuso (ast. T. Marras) 35'
F. Benaissa-Yahia (ast. S. Trimboli) 90'+5
78' L. Lucchesi
88' (ast. Hernani) D. Mota

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mantova a 36% win probability (draw 28%, Monza 35%). The final result was Mantova 3–2 Monza. In 1 previous meetings, Mantova have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Monza.

Match statistics
16
Total shots
18
7
Shots on target
10
1.97
Actual xG
2.14
6
Saves
4
44%
Possession
56%
0
Corners
7
16
Tackles
11
3
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
A. Dembele
11'
⚽R. Kouda · ast. S. Trimboli
23'
28'
A. Petagna
⚽L. Mancuso · ast. T. Marras
35'
56'
G. Caso / A. Colpani ↕
56'
A. Bakoune / F. Delli Carri ↕
56'
Hernani / P. Obiang ↕
57'
Hernani
S. Cella
59'
65'
D. Mota / P. Azzi ↕
↕ T. Marras / C. Falletti
73'
↕ F. Ruocco / F. Paoletti
73'
74'
A. Alvarez / A. Petagna ↕
78'
L. Lucchesi⚽
↕ R. Kouda / N. Buso
80'
↕ L. Mancuso / D. Wieser
80'
F. Paoletti
88'
88'
ast. Hernani · D. Mota⚽
⚽F. Benaissa-Yahia · ast. S. Trimboli
90'+5
Pre-match prediction
36.28%
Mantova ←
28.49%
X
35.23%
Monza
we assigned to the actual result (Mantova) 36.28% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Mantova
1.46
1.97
+0.51
Monza
1.16
2.14
+0.98
xG dominance was balanced (1.97 – 2.14). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Venezia Venezia 38 82
2 Frosinone Frosinone 38 81
3 Monza Monza 38 76
4 Palermo Palermo 38 72
5 Catanzaro Catanzaro 38 59
6 Modena Modena 38 55
7 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 38 51
8 Avellino Avellino 38 49
9 Mantova Mantova 38 46
10 Padova Padova 38 46
11 Cesena Cesena 38 46
12 Carrarese Carrarese 38 44
13 Sampdoria Sampdoria 38 44
14 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 38 42
15 Empoli Empoli 38 41
16 Sudtirol Sudtirol 38 41
17 Bari Bari 38 40
18 Reggiana Reggiana 38 37
19 Spezia Spezia 38 35
20 Pescara Pescara 38 35
Lineups
Mantova Mantova 3-4-2-1
24
G 7.90
27
A. Castellini D 7.00
29
S. Cella D 7.00
3
A. Dembele D 6.20
50
F. Benaissa-Yahia 1 ⚽ M 8.20
80
Rachid Kouda 1 ⚽ 80' M 8.30
21 S. Trimboli S. Trimboli 2 👟 M 9.30
96
T. Maggioni M 6.30
19
F. Ruocco 73' F 7.00
23
T. Marras 1 👟 73' F 6.60
9
L. Mancuso 1 ⚽ 80' F 7.30
Bench
10
D. Wieser 10' M 7.20
36
F. Paoletti 17' M 6.00
77
N. Buso 10' F 7.30
Monza Monza 3-4-2-1
20
G 7.00
3
L. Lucchesi 1 ⚽ D 6.60
15
F. Delli Carri 56' D 5.90
13
D 6.60
7 Paulo Azzi Paulo Azzi 65' M 6.30
32
M. Pessina M 7.20
14
P. Obiang 56' M 6.50
19
S. Birindelli M 6.20
10
P. Cutrone F 6.30
28
A. Colpani 56' F 6.90
37 A. Petagna A. Petagna 73' F 6.20
Bench
24
A. Bakoune 34' D 6.20
47
D. Mota 1 ⚽ 25' F 7.50
30
G. Caso 34' M 6.90
8
Hernani 1 👟 34' M 7.20
17 K. Baldé K. Baldé F
Best on the pitch
S. Trimboli
S. Trimboli
M · Mantova
9.30
2 👟
1 shots · 52 pass
Rachid Kouda
M · Mantova
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 32 pass
F. Benaissa-Yahia
M · Mantova
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 27 pass
G · Mantova
7.90
· 31 pass
D. Mota
F · Monza
7.50
1 ⚽
1 shots · 16 pass
N. Buso
F · Mantova
7.30
· 6 pass
Mantova Mantova — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.90 — — — 31 16% — — —
A. Castellini D 90 7.00 — — 1 41 33% 5 — —
S. Cella D 90 7.00 — — — 25 22% — 1 —
A. Dembele D 90 6.20 — — — 36 31% 1 1 —
F. Benaissa-Yahia M 90 8.20 1 — 1 27 22% 1 — —
Rachid Kouda M 80 8.30 1 — 1 32 27% 1 — —
S. Trimboli M 90 9.30 — 2 1 52 43% 3 — —
T. Maggioni M 90 6.30 — — — 25 17% 1 — —
F. Ruocco F 73 7.00 — — — 22 16% 3 — —
T. Marras F 73 6.60 — 1 4 25 22% — — —
L. Mancuso F 80 7.30 1 — 5 16 13% — — —
D. Wieser M 10 7.20 — — 1 7 6% 1 — —
F. Paoletti M 17 6.00 — — 2 6 5% — 1 —
N. Buso F 10 7.30 — — — 6 4% — — —
Monza Monza — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.00 — — — 47 33% — — —
L. Lucchesi D 90 6.60 1 — 1 43 41% 2 — —
F. Delli Carri D 56 5.90 — — 1 15 13% 1 — —
D 90 6.60 — — 1 56 47% 1 — —
Paulo Azzi M 65 6.30 — — — 27 22% 1 — —
M. Pessina M 90 7.20 — — 1 60 50% — — —
P. Obiang M 56 6.50 — — 1 30 26% 1 — —
S. Birindelli M 90 6.20 — — — 42 29% 3 — —
P. Cutrone F 90 6.30 — — 3 24 17% — — —
A. Colpani F 56 6.90 — — 1 14 10% — — —
A. Petagna F 73 6.20 — — 2 21 20% — 1 —
A. Bakoune D 34 6.20 — — 1 10 8% 1 — —
D. Mota F 25 7.50 1 — 1 16 14% — — —
G. Caso M 34 6.90 — — 3 12 11% — — —
Hernani M 34 7.20 — 1 2 19 16% 1 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Mantova vs Monza?
The final score was Mantova 3–2 Monza.
What did the model predict before Mantova vs Monza?
The model assigned 36% probability to a Mantova win, 28% to a draw, and 35% to an Monza win.