Mantova 3–2 Monza — pre-match prediction — Serie B — May 01, 2026

← Serie B

Serie B · Regular Season - 37 May 01, 2026 15:00 Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova

Mantova

#4 · 18 pts

3 – 2

Final score

Monza

R. Kouda (ast. S. Trimboli) 23'

L. Mancuso (ast. T. Marras) 35'

F. Benaissa-Yahia (ast. S. Trimboli) 90'+5

78' L. Lucchesi

88' (ast. Hernani) D. Mota

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Mantova a 36% win probability (draw 28%, Monza 35%). The final result was Mantova 3–2 Monza. In 1 previous meetings, Mantova have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Monza.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.97

Actual xG

2.14

Saves

44%

Possession

56%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

A. Dembele

11'

⚽R. Kouda · ast. S. Trimboli

23'

28'

A. Petagna

⚽L. Mancuso · ast. T. Marras

35'

56'

G. Caso / A. Colpani ↕

56'

A. Bakoune / F. Delli Carri ↕

56'

Hernani / P. Obiang ↕

57'

Hernani

S. Cella

59'

65'

D. Mota / P. Azzi ↕

↕ T. Marras / C. Falletti

73'

↕ F. Ruocco / F. Paoletti

73'

74'

A. Alvarez / A. Petagna ↕

78'

L. Lucchesi⚽

↕ R. Kouda / N. Buso

80'

↕ L. Mancuso / D. Wieser

80'

F. Paoletti

88'

ast. Hernani · D. Mota⚽

⚽F. Benaissa-Yahia · ast. S. Trimboli

90'+5

Pre-match prediction

36.28%

Mantova ←

28.49%

35.23%

Monza

we assigned to the actual result (Mantova) 36.28% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Mantova

1.46

1.97

+0.51

Monza

1.16

2.14

+0.98

xG dominance was balanced (1.97 – 2.14). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Palermo	11	27
2	Ascoli	11	20
3	Modena	10	20
4	Mantova	10	18
5	Avellino	10	15
6	Benevento	10	15
7	Hellas Verona	10	15
8	Pisa	10	15
9	Padova	10	14
10	Sudtirol	10	14
11	Cremonese	10	12
12	Cesena	10	12
13	Arezzo	10	11
14	Virtus Entella	10	10
15	Carrarese	10	10
16	Juve Stabia	10	9
17	Vicenza Virtus	10	9
18	Empoli	10	8
19	Sampdoria	10	8
20	Catanzaro	10	6

Lineups

Mantova 3-4-2-1

G 7.90

A. Castellini D 7.00

S. Cella D 7.00

A. Dembélé D 6.20

F. Benaissa-Yahia 1 ⚽ M 8.20

R. Kouda 1 ⚽ 80' M 8.30

S. Trimboli 2 👟 M 9.30

T. Maggioni M 6.30

F. Ruocco 73' F 7.00

T. Marras 1 👟 73' F 6.60

L. Mancuso 1 ⚽ 80' F 7.30

Bench

D. Wieser 10' M 7.20

F. Paoletti 17' M 6.00

N. Buso 10' F 7.30

Monza 3-4-2-1

G 7.00

L. Lucchesi 1 ⚽ D 6.60

F. Delli Carri 56' D 5.90

D 6.60

Paulo Azzi 65' M 6.30

Matteo Pessina M 7.20

Pedro Obiang 56' M 6.50

S. Birindelli M 6.20

P. Cutrone F 6.30

A. Colpani 56' F 6.90

A. Petagna 73' F 6.20

Bench

A. Bakoune 34' D 6.20

Dany Mota 1 ⚽ 25' F 7.50

G. Caso 34' M 6.90

Hernani 1 👟 34' M 7.20

K. Baldé F

Best on the pitch

S. Trimboli

M · Mantova

9.30

2 👟

1 shots · 52 pass

R. Kouda

M · Mantova

8.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 32 pass

F. Benaissa-Yahia

M · Mantova

8.20

1 ⚽

1 shots · 27 pass

G · Mantova

7.90

· 31 pass

Dany Mota

F · Monza

7.50

1 ⚽

1 shots · 16 pass

N. Buso

F · Mantova

7.30

· 6 pass

Mantova — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	7.90	—	—	—	31	16%	—	—	—
A. Castellini	D	90	7.00	—	—	1	41	33%	5	—	—
S. Cella	D	90	7.00	—	—	—	25	22%	—	1	—
A. Dembélé	D	90	6.20	—	—	—	36	31%	1	1	—
F. Benaissa-Yahia	M	90	8.20	1	—	1	27	22%	1	—	—
R. Kouda	M	80	8.30	1	—	1	32	27%	1	—	—
S. Trimboli	M	90	9.30	—	2	1	52	43%	3	—	—
T. Maggioni	M	90	6.30	—	—	—	25	17%	1	—	—
F. Ruocco	F	73	7.00	—	—	—	22	16%	3	—	—
T. Marras	F	73	6.60	—	1	4	25	22%	—	—	—
L. Mancuso	F	80	7.30	1	—	5	16	13%	—	—	—
D. Wieser	M	10	7.20	—	—	1	7	6%	1	—	—
F. Paoletti	M	17	6.00	—	—	2	6	5%	—	1	—
N. Buso	F	10	7.30	—	—	—	6	4%	—	—	—

Monza — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	7.00	—	—	—	47	33%	—	—	—
L. Lucchesi	D	90	6.60	1	—	1	43	41%	2	—	—
F. Delli Carri	D	56	5.90	—	—	1	15	13%	1	—	—
	D	90	6.60	—	—	1	56	47%	1	—	—
Paulo Azzi	M	65	6.30	—	—	—	27	22%	1	—	—
Matteo Pessina	M	90	7.20	—	—	1	60	50%	—	—	—
Pedro Obiang	M	56	6.50	—	—	1	30	26%	1	—	—
S. Birindelli	M	90	6.20	—	—	—	42	29%	3	—	—
P. Cutrone	F	90	6.30	—	—	3	24	17%	—	—	—
A. Colpani	F	56	6.90	—	—	1	14	10%	—	—	—
A. Petagna	F	73	6.20	—	—	2	21	20%	—	1	—
A. Bakoune	D	34	6.20	—	—	1	10	8%	1	—	—
Dany Mota	F	25	7.50	1	—	1	16	14%	—	—	—
G. Caso	M	34	6.90	—	—	3	12	11%	—	—	—
Hernani	M	34	7.20	—	1	2	19	16%	1	1	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Mantova vs Monza?

The final score was Mantova 3–2 Monza.

What did the model predict before Mantova vs Monza?

The model assigned 36% probability to a Mantova win, 28% to a draw, and 35% to an Monza win.