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Moldova - Kazakhstan

UEFA Nations League November 13, 2026 18:00 Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City
Moldova
#3 · 4 pts
vs
Kazakhstan
#4 · 2 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
45.73%
Win
Moldova
34.28%
Draw
19.99%
Win
Kazakhstan
1.21
Expected xG
0.69

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–0 (16.93%)
1X2 Result
1 46%
X 34%
2 20%
Double Chance
1X 80%
X2 54%
12 66%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 52%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Moldova a 45% win probability, against 34% for a draw and 19% for Kazakhstan. Expected goals are 1.2 for Moldova and 0.7 for Kazakhstan (total 1.9), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 16.93% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Moldova have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Kazakhstan.

Season Stats

Moldova
4W 1D 3L
Kazakhstan
0W 3D 7L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
0.5
1.1
Conceded
2.2
3.9
Shots OT
1.9
4.3
Corners
3.5
50%
Poss.
45%
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
80%
25%
O 2.5
60%
25%
BTTS
40%
38%
Clean Sht
10%
ℹ Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
33%
O 3.5
33%
BTTS
Moldova
2W 1D 1L · at home
Kazakhstan
0W 1D 4L · away
1.2
gls/g
0.4
1.2
Conceded
3.0
50%
Win %
0%
75%
Win or Draw
20%
100%
O 1.5
100%
25%
O 2.5
80%
25%
O 3.5
40%
25%
BTTS
40%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
25%
Failed to Score
60%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Moldova Kazakhstan →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.0% 10.4% 3.6% 0.8% 0.1% —
1 18.0% 12.5% 4.3% 1.0% 0.2% —
2 10.9% 7.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% —
3 4.4% 3.0% 1.1% 0.2% — —
4 1.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% — —
5 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Moldova Moldova
L Slovakia 0–4
W Kazakhstan 1–2
D Faroe Islands 1–1
L Slovakia 2–0
W Andorra 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Kazakhstan Kazakhstan
D Faroe Islands 2–2
L Moldova 1–2
L Slovakia 2–1
D Faroe Islands 1–1
L Norway 5–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Moldova Moldova
Attack
33
Defence
55
Form
21
Kazakhstan Kazakhstan
Attack
30
Defence
53
Form
14
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Moldova
0
Draw
0
Kazakhstan
2 Oct 2026 UEFA Nations League 2–1

League C - Group C

# Team G Pts
1 Slovakia Slovakia 4 10
2 Faroe Islands Faroe Islands 4 4
3 Moldova Moldova 4 4
4 Kazakhstan Kazakhstan 4 2

What's at stake · League C - Group C

Top 2 advance to the next round

Moldova Kazakhstan
Current #3 #4
→ Moldova #2 #4
→ Draw #2 #4
→ Kazakhstan #4 #2

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
The model gives Moldova a 45% win probability, 34% for a draw, and 19% for an Kazakhstan win.
How many goals are expected in Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
Expected goals: Moldova 1.2, Kazakhstan 0.7 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Moldova vs Kazakhstan?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 16.93%.