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Montenegro - Latvia

UEFA Nations League November 12, 2026 20:45 Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City
Montenegro
#1 · 10 pts
vs
Latvia
#4 · 1 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
70.69%
Win
Montenegro
22.68%
Draw
6.63%
Win
Latvia
1.75
Expected xG
0.3
Most likely outcome
Montenegro
70.69%
Probability
62.9%
1X2 accuracy · 35 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (21.48%)
1X2 Result
1 71%
X 23%
2 7%
Double Chance
1X 93%
X2 29%
12 77%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 54%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Montenegro a 70% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 6% for Latvia. Expected goals are 1.8 for Montenegro and 0.3 for Latvia (total 2.1), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 21.48% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Montenegro have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Latvia.

Season Stats

Montenegro
4W 1D 5L
Latvia
3W 2D 7L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
0.7
1.3
Conceded
1.4
3.9
Shots OT
2.1
5.0
Corners
3.8
48%
Poss.
46%
Percentages
70%
O 1.5
58%
50%
O 2.5
42%
50%
BTTS
42%
10%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 12 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
19%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
Montenegro
2W 1D 2L · at home
Latvia
1W 1D 4L · away
1.2
gls/g
0.7
1.2
Conceded
1.7
40%
Win %
17%
60%
Win or Draw
33%
80%
O 1.5
67%
60%
O 2.5
33%
20%
O 3.5
17%
60%
BTTS
50%
20%
Clean Sht
17%
40%
Failed to Score
33%
last 6
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Montenegro Latvia →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 12.9% 3.9% 0.6% 0.1% — —
1 22.5% 6.8% 1.0% 0.1% — —
2 19.7% 5.9% 0.9% 0.1% — —
3 11.5% 3.5% 0.5% 0.1% — —
4 5.0% 1.5% 0.2% — — —
5 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Montenegro Montenegro
D Armenia 0–0
W Latvia 1–2
W Armenia 2–3
W Cyprus 2–1
W Türkiye 3–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Latvia Latvia
L Cyprus 2–1
L Montenegro 1–2
D Cyprus 0–0
L Armenia 2–0
W Gibraltar 1–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Montenegro Montenegro
Attack
46
Defence
71
Form
66
Latvia Latvia
Attack
14
Defence
56
Form
40
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Montenegro
0
Draw
0
Latvia
2 Oct 2026 UEFA Nations League 2–1

League C - Group B

# Team G Pts
1 Montenegro Montenegro 4 10
2 Cyprus Cyprus 4 7
3 Armenia Armenia 4 4
4 Latvia Latvia 4 1

What's at stake · League C - Group B

Top 2 advance to the next round

Montenegro Latvia
Current #1 #4
→ Montenegro #1 #4
→ Draw #1 #4
→ Latvia #1 #4

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Montenegro vs Latvia?
The model gives Montenegro a 70% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 6% for an Latvia win.
How many goals are expected in Montenegro vs Latvia?
Expected goals: Montenegro 1.8, Latvia 0.3 (total 2.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Montenegro vs Latvia?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 21.48%.