Northern Ireland - Ukraine
⚡ Pre-match analysis
46.58%
Win
Northern Ireland
40.9%
Draw
12.52%
Win
Ukraine
0.91
0.35
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
0–0
(29.81%)
1X2 Result
1
47%
X
41%
2
13%
Double Chance
1X
88%
X2
53%
12
59%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
42%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Northern Ireland a 46% win probability, against 40% for a draw and 12% for Ukraine. Expected goals are 0.9 for Northern Ireland and 0.3 for Ukraine (total 1.3), with a 63% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 29.81% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Northern Ireland have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Ukraine.
Season Stats
5W
4D
1L
4W
3D
5L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
1.1
0.3
Conceded
1.4
4.4
Shots OT
3.4
5.3
Corners
4.0
44%
Poss.
49%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
75%
30%
O 2.5
58%
10%
BTTS
58%
80%
Clean Sht
25%
ℹ
Based on the last 12 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
19%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
3W
2D
0L
· at home
2W
2D
2L
· away
1.8
gls/g
1.0
0.0
Conceded
1.3
60%
Win %
33%
100%
Win or Draw
67%
60%
O 1.5
67%
20%
O 2.5
50%
20%
O 3.5
17%
0%
BTTS
50%
100%
Clean Sht
33%
40%
Failed to Score
33%
last 6
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Northern Ireland
Ukraine →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 28.4% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 1 | 25.9% | 9.0% | 1.6% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 2 | 11.8% | 4.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 3 | 3.6% | 1.2% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 4 | 0.8% | 0.3% | — | — | — | — |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Northern Ireland
Attack
31
Defence
77
Form
59
Ukraine
Attack
22
Defence
66
Form
23
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
1
0
Draw
0
2 Oct 2026
3–0
League B - Group B
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Northern Ireland
|
4 | 8 |
| 2 |
Hungary
|
4 | 7 |
| 3 |
Ukraine
|
4 | 4 |
| 4 |
Georgia
|
4 | 2 |
What's at stake · League B - Group B
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #3 |
| → Northern Ireland | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #1 | #3 |
| → Ukraine | #1 | #3 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
The model gives Northern Ireland a 46% win probability, 40% for a draw, and 12% for an Ukraine win.
How many goals are expected in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
Expected goals: Northern Ireland 0.9, Ukraine 0.3 (total 1.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 63%.
What is the most likely score in Northern Ireland vs Ukraine?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 29.81%.