Europa League
· Quarter-finals
April 16, 2026 21:00
M. Gibbs-White
(ast. N. Williams)
12'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 46% win probability (draw 23%, Nottingham Forest 30%). The final result was Nottingham Forest 1–0 FC Porto. In 2 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FC Porto.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
7
5
Shots on target
1
1.82
Actual xG
1.06
1
Saves
4
61%
Possession
39%
8
Corners
1
17
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
8'
J. Bednarek
⚽M. Gibbs-White
· ast. N. Williams
12'
C. Wood
/ Igor Jesus
16'
32'
T. Moffi
36'
A. Costa
O. Hutchinson
40'
46'
F. Moura
/
Zaidu
46'
J. Kiwior
/
G. Veiga
46'
V. Froholdt
/
A. Costa
46'
A. Varela
/
B. Sainz
O. Hutchinson
/ C. Hudson-Odoi
46'
D. Ndoye
/ N. Milenkovic
65'
66'
D. Gul
/
T. Moffi
Murillo
/ Morato
72'
C. Hudson-Odoi
/ D. Bakwa
72'
90'
William Gomes
Pre-match prediction
30.18%
Nottingham ←
23.17%
X
46.66%
FC
we assigned to the actual result (Nottingham Forest)
30.18%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.37
1.82
+0.45
1.78
1.06
-0.72
Nottingham Forest dominated by xG (1.82 vs 1.06).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
27
G
3
N. Williams
1 👟
D
N. Williams
1 👟
D
5
Murillo
72'
D
Murillo
72'
D
23
Jair
D
Jair
D
34
O. Aina
D
O. Aina
D
16
N. Domínguez
M
N. Domínguez
M
6
I. Sangaré
M
I. Sangaré
M
14
D. Ndoye
65'
M
D. Ndoye
65'
M
10
M. Gibbs-White
1 ⚽
M
M. Gibbs-White
1 ⚽
M
21
Omari Hutchinson
45'
M
Omari Hutchinson
45'
M
11
C. Wood
16'
F
C. Wood
16'
F
Bench
7
C. Hudson-Odoi
27'
F
C. Hudson-Odoi
27'
F
29
D. Bakwa
18'
F
D. Bakwa
18'
F
19
Igor Jesus
74'
F
Igor Jesus
74'
F
24
J. McAtee
M
J. McAtee
M
4
Morato
18'
D
Morato
18'
D
31
N. Milenković
25'
D
N. Milenković
25'
D
22
R. Yates
M
R. Yates
M
44
Z. Abbott
D
Z. Abbott
D
99
Diogo Costa
G
Diogo Costa
G
12
Z. Sanusi
45'
D
Z. Sanusi
45'
D
5
J. Bednarek
8'
D
J. Bednarek
8'
D
3
Thiago Silva
D
Thiago Silva
D
20
Alberto Baio
45'
D
Alberto Baio
45'
D
10
Gabri Veiga
45'
M
Gabri Veiga
45'
M
13
P. Rosario
M
P. Rosario
M
42
S. Fofana
M
S. Fofana
M
17
Borja Sainz
45'
F
Borja Sainz
45'
F
29
T. Moffi
66'
F
T. Moffi
66'
F
7
William
F
William
F
Bench
22
A. Varela
45'
M
A. Varela
45'
M
27
Deniz Gül
24'
F
Deniz Gül
24'
F
74
Francisco Moura
45'
D
Francisco Moura
45'
D
73
Gabriel Brás
D
Gabriel Brás
D
4
J. Kiwior
45'
D
J. Kiwior
45'
D
11
Pepê Aquino
F
Pepê Aquino
F
86
Rodrigo Mora
M
Rodrigo Mora
M
58
Tiago Silva
M
8
Victor Mow Froholdt
45'
M
Victor Mow Froholdt
45'
M
Best on the pitch
N. Williams
D · Nottingham
8.20
1 👟
· 62 pass
I. Sangaré
M · Nottingham
8.00
· 75 pass
M. Gibbs-White
M · Nottingham
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 48 pass
Diogo Costa
G · FC
7.60
· 47 pass
C. Hudson-Odoi
F · Nottingham
7.50
1 shots
· 21 pass
Jair
D · Nottingham
7.50
· 43 pass
Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| N. Williams | D | 90 | 8.20 | — | 1 | — | 62 | 59% | 4 | — | — |
| Murillo | D | 72 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 43 | 41% | — | — | — |
| Jair | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 43 | 39% | 3 | — | — |
| O. Aina | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| N. Domínguez | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 65 | 60% | 4 | — | — |
| I. Sangaré | M | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 75 | 67% | 4 | — | — |
| D. Ndoye | M | 65 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 25% | — | — | — |
| M. Gibbs-White | M | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 48 | 43% | — | — | — |
| Omari Hutchinson | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| C. Wood | F | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| C. Hudson-Odoi | F | 27 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 21% | — | — | — |
| D. Bakwa | F | 18 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 10 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Igor Jesus | F | 74 | 6.50 | — | — | 4 | 24 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Morato | D | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| N. Milenković | D | 25 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 7 | 7% | — | — | — |
FC Porto — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Costa | G | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 47 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Z. Sanusi | D | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Bednarek | D | 8 | 3.00 | — | — | — | 8 | 8% | — | — | 1 |
| Thiago Silva | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 40 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Alberto Baio | D | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 4% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Gabri Veiga | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| P. Rosario | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 36 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Fofana | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 34 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| Borja Sainz | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| T. Moffi | F | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 8 | 2% | 1 | 1 | — |
| William | F | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 11% | 4 | 1 | — |
| A. Varela | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Deniz Gül | F | 24 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Francisco Moura | D | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Kiwior | D | 45 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 25% | 2 | — | — |
| Victor Mow Froholdt | M | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 15 | 13% | 4 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs FC Porto?
The final score was Nottingham Forest 1–0 FC Porto.
What did the model predict before Nottingham Forest vs FC Porto?
The model assigned 30% probability to a Nottingham Forest win, 23% to a draw, and 46% to an FC Porto win.