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Europa League · Quarter-finals April 16, 2026 21:00
Nottingham Forest
#13 · 14 pts
1 – 0
Final score
FC Porto
#5 · 17 pts
M. Gibbs-White (ast. N. Williams) 12'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Porto a 46% win probability (draw 23%, Nottingham Forest 30%). The final result was Nottingham Forest 1–0 FC Porto. In 2 previous meetings, Nottingham Forest have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FC Porto.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
7
5
Shots on target
1
1.82
Actual xG
1.06
1
Saves
4
61%
Possession
39%
8
Corners
1
17
Tackles
22
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
8'
J. Bednarek
⚽M. Gibbs-White · ast. N. Williams
12'
↕ C. Wood / Igor Jesus
16'
32'
T. Moffi
36'
A. Costa
O. Hutchinson
40'
46'
F. Moura / Zaidu ↕
46'
J. Kiwior / G. Veiga ↕
46'
V. Froholdt / A. Costa ↕
46'
A. Varela / B. Sainz ↕
↕ O. Hutchinson / C. Hudson-Odoi
46'
↕ D. Ndoye / N. Milenkovic
65'
66'
D. Gul / T. Moffi ↕
↕ Murillo / Morato
72'
↕ C. Hudson-Odoi / D. Bakwa
72'
90'
William Gomes
Pre-match prediction
30.18%
Nottingham ←
23.17%
X
46.66%
FC
we assigned to the actual result (Nottingham Forest) 30.18% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Nottingham
1.37
1.82
+0.45
FC
1.78
1.06
-0.72
Nottingham Forest dominated by xG (1.82 vs 1.06). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Lyon Lyon 8 21
2 Aston Villa Aston Villa 8 21
3 FC Midtjylland FC Midtjylland 8 19
4 Real Betis Real Betis 8 17
5 FC Porto FC Porto 8 17
6 SC Braga SC Braga 8 17
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 8 17
8 AS Roma AS Roma 8 16
9 Genk Genk 8 16
10 Bologna Bologna 8 15
11 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 8 15
12 Ferencvarosi TC Ferencvarosi TC 8 15
13 Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 8 14
14 Plzen Plzen 8 14
15 FK Crvena Zvezda FK Crvena Zvezda 8 14
16 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 8 13
17 PAOK PAOK 8 12
18 Lille Lille 8 12
19 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 8 12
20 Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 8 12
21 Celtic Celtic 8 11
22 Ludogorets Ludogorets 8 10
23 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 8 10
24 Brann Brann 8 9
25 BSC Young Boys BSC Young Boys 8 9
26 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 8 7
27 FCSB FCSB 8 7
28 GO Ahead Eagles GO Ahead Eagles 8 7
29 Feyenoord Feyenoord 8 6
30 FC Basel 1893 FC Basel 1893 8 6
31 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 8 6
32 Rangers Rangers 8 4
33 Nice Nice 8 3
34 Utrecht Utrecht 8 1
35 Malmo FF Malmo FF 8 1
36 Maccabi Tel Aviv Maccabi Tel Aviv 8 1
Lineups
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1
27
G 7.30
3 N. Williams N. Williams 1 👟 D 8.20
5
Murillo 72' D 7.00
23 Jair Jair D 7.50
34
O. Aina D 7.20
16 Nicolás Domínguez Nicolás Domínguez M 6.30
6 I. Sangaré I. Sangaré M 8.00
14 Dan Ndoye Dan Ndoye 65' M 6.90
10 M. Gibbs-White M. Gibbs-White 1 ⚽ M 7.90
21 Omari Hutchinson Omari Hutchinson 45' M 6.30
11 C. Wood C. Wood 16' F 6.70
Bench
7
C. Hudson-Odoi 27' F 7.50
29 Dilane Bakwa Dilane Bakwa 18' F 6.90
19 Igor Jesus Igor Jesus 74' F 6.50
24 James McAtee James McAtee M
4 Morato Morato 18' D 6.60
31 N. Milenković N. Milenković 25' D 6.60
22 Ryan Yates Ryan Yates M
44 Zach Abbott Zach Abbott D
FC Porto FC Porto 4-3-3
99 Diogo Costa Diogo Costa G 7.60
12 Zaidu Sanusi Zaidu Sanusi 45' D 6.60
5 J. Bednarek J. Bednarek 8' D 3.00
3 Thiago Silva Thiago Silva D 6.90
20 Alberto Baio Alberto Baio 45' D 6.20
10 Gabri Veiga Gabri Veiga 45' M 6.30
13
Pablo Rosario M 6.50
42 S. Fofana S. Fofana M 6.90
17 Borja Sainz Borja Sainz 45' F 6.50
29 Terem Moffi Terem Moffi 66' F 6.20
7 William William F 6.70
Bench
22 A. Varela A. Varela 45' M 7.00
27 D. Gül D. Gül 24' F 6.60
74 Francisco Moura Francisco Moura 45' D 6.90
73
Gabriel Brás D
4
Jakub Kiwior 45' D 7.30
11 Pepê Aquino Pepê Aquino F
86 Rodrigo Mora Rodrigo Mora M
58
Tiago Silva M
8 Victor Mow Froholdt Victor Mow Froholdt 45' M 6.60
Best on the pitch
N. Williams
N. Williams
D · Nottingham
8.20
1 👟
· 62 pass
I. Sangaré
I. Sangaré
M · Nottingham
8.00
· 75 pass
M. Gibbs-White
M. Gibbs-White
M · Nottingham
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 48 pass
Diogo Costa
Diogo Costa
G · FC
7.60
· 47 pass
C. Hudson-Odoi
F · Nottingham
7.50
1 shots · 21 pass
Jair
Jair
D · Nottingham
7.50
· 43 pass
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.30 — — — 24 19% — — —
N. Williams D 90 8.20 — 1 — 62 59% 4 — —
Murillo D 72 7.00 — — 2 43 41% — — —
Jair D 90 7.50 — — — 43 39% 3 — —
O. Aina D 90 7.20 — — — 42 38% 1 — —
Nicolás Domínguez M 90 6.30 — — 3 65 60% 4 — —
I. Sangaré M 90 8.00 — — — 75 67% 4 — —
Dan Ndoye M 65 6.90 — — — 30 25% — — —
M. Gibbs-White M 90 7.90 1 — 2 48 43% — — —
Omari Hutchinson M 45 6.30 — — 2 18 15% 1 1 —
C. Wood F 16 6.70 — — — 1 1% — — —
C. Hudson-Odoi F 27 7.50 — — 1 21 21% — — —
Dilane Bakwa F 18 6.90 — — — 10 7% — — —
Igor Jesus F 74 6.50 — — 4 24 17% — — —
Morato D 18 6.60 — — — 8 7% — — —
N. Milenković D 25 6.60 — — — 7 7% — — —
FC Porto FC Porto — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Diogo Costa G 90 7.60 — — — 47 29% — — —
Zaidu Sanusi D 45 6.60 — — 1 20 16% 2 — —
J. Bednarek D 8 3.00 — — — 8 8% — — 1
Thiago Silva D 90 6.90 — — — 40 29% — — —
Alberto Baio D 45 6.20 — — — 7 4% 4 1 —
Gabri Veiga M 45 6.30 — — — 14 9% — — —
Pablo Rosario M 90 6.50 — — — 36 28% 2 — —
S. Fofana M 90 6.90 — — 2 34 29% 1 — —
Borja Sainz F 45 6.50 — — — 5 5% — — —
Terem Moffi F 66 6.20 — — 1 8 2% 1 1 —
William F 90 6.70 — — 2 14 11% 4 1 —
A. Varela M 45 7.00 — — 1 31 25% — — —
D. Gül F 24 6.60 — — — 3 3% — — —
Francisco Moura D 45 6.90 — — — 25 22% 2 — —
Jakub Kiwior D 45 7.30 — — — 27 25% 2 — —
Victor Mow Froholdt M 45 6.60 — — — 15 13% 4 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Nottingham Forest vs FC Porto?
The final score was Nottingham Forest 1–0 FC Porto.
What did the model predict before Nottingham Forest vs FC Porto?
The model assigned 30% probability to a Nottingham Forest win, 23% to a draw, and 46% to an FC Porto win.