← Bundesliga
Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33 May 09, 2026 15:30
RB Leipzig
#3 · 65 pts
2 – 1
Final score
FC St. Pauli
#18 · 26 pts
✓Model correct — prediction RB Leipzig
X. Schlager (ast. C. Baumgartner) 45'
W. Orban (ast. D. Raum) 55'
86' (ast. J. Irvine) A. Ceesay

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave RB Leipzig a 86% win probability (draw 8%, FC St. Pauli 5%). The final result was RB Leipzig 2–1 FC St. Pauli. In 1 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FC St. Pauli.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
4
3
Shots on target
2
1.32
Actual xG
0.52
1
Saves
1
71%
Possession
29%
3
Corners
5
13
Tackles
23
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
C. Lukeba
20'
⚽X. Schlager · ast. C. Baumgartner
45'
C. Baumgartner
51'
⚽W. Orban · ast. D. Raum
55'
64'
H. Wahl / L. Ritzka ↕
64'
F. Stevens / L. Oppie ↕
↕ A. Ouedraogo / N. Seiwald
69'
↕ D. Raum / M. Finkgrafe
69'
72'
A. Ceesay / A. Hountondji ↕
↕ B. Gruda / A. Nusa
80'
86'
ast. J. Irvine · A. Ceesay⚽
89'
M. Rasmussen / E. Smith ↕
89'
D. Sinani / C. Metcalfe ↕
↕ R. Baku / B. Henrichs
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
86.58%
RB ←
8.32%
X
5.11%
FC
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (RB Leipzig) 86.58% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
RB
3.58
1.32
-2.26
FC
0.69
0.52
-0.17
RB Leipzig dominated by xG (1.32 vs 0.52). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 33 86
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 33 70
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 33 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 33 61
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 33 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 33 58
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 33 44
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 33 43
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 33 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 33 37
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 33 37
12 Union Berlin Union Berlin 33 36
13 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 33 35
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 33 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 33 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 33 26
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 33 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 33 26
Lineups
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-3-3
26
87' G 6.30
22 D. Raum D. Raum 1 👟 69' D 7.30
23
C. Lukeba 87' D 7.20
4 W. Orbán W. Orbán 1 ⚽ 87' D 9.00
17
R. Baku 87' D 6.90
14 C. Baumgartner C. Baumgartner 1 👟 87' M 6.30
24
Xaver Schlager 1 ⚽ 87' M 7.90
20
A. Ouedraogo 69' M 6.30
49
Y. Diomande 87' F 7.30
40
Romulo Cardoso 87' F 6.30
10
B. Gruda 79' F 7.00
Bench
7 A. Nusa A. Nusa 8' M 6.50
11
C. Harder F
5
E. Bitshiabu D
16
L. Klostermann D
35
M. Finkgrafe 18' D 6.30
13
Nicolas Seiwald 18' M 6.30
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-5-2
22
87' G 6.90
21
L. Ritzka 64' D 6.30
8
E. Smith 87' D 6.20
15
Tomoya Ando 87' D 6.90
23
L. Oppie 64' M 6.50
16
J. Fujita 87' M 7.00
7
Jackson Irvine 1 👟 87' M 7.00
24
C. Metcalfe 87' M 6.20
11
87' M 6.60
27
A. Hountondji 72' F 6.30
19
M. Kaars 87' F 6.30
Bench
9
A. Ceesay 1 ⚽ 15' F 7.20
10 D. Sinani D. Sinani F
20
M. Rasmussen M
Best on the pitch
W. Orbán
W. Orbán
D · RB
9.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 140 pass
Xaver Schlager
M · RB
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 64 pass
D. Raum
D. Raum
D · RB
7.30
1 👟
· 63 pass
Y. Diomande
F · RB
7.30
· 32 pass
A. Ceesay
F · FC
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 4 pass
C. Lukeba
D · RB
7.20
· 116 pass
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 87 6.30 — — — 28 24% — — —
D. Raum D 69 7.30 — 1 — 63 60% — — —
C. Lukeba D 87 7.20 — — — 116 109% 3 1 —
W. Orbán D 87 9.00 1 — 1 140 136% 1 — —
R. Baku D 87 6.90 — — — 81 68% 2 — —
C. Baumgartner M 87 6.30 — 1 3 48 40% 2 1 —
Xaver Schlager M 87 7.90 1 — 1 64 57% 2 — —
A. Ouedraogo M 69 6.30 — — 1 21 19% — — —
Y. Diomande F 87 7.30 — — — 32 25% 1 — —
Romulo Cardoso F 87 6.30 — — 1 9 8% 2 — —
B. Gruda F 79 7.00 — — 2 32 23% — — —
A. Nusa M 8 6.50 — — — 2 2% — — —
M. Finkgrafe D 18 6.30 — — — 19 17% — — —
Nicolas Seiwald M 18 6.30 — — — 21 20% — — —
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 87 6.90 — — — 28 16% — — —
L. Ritzka D 64 6.30 — — — 20 16% 2 — —
E. Smith D 87 6.20 — — 1 28 20% 1 — —
Tomoya Ando D 87 6.90 — — — 32 27% 2 — —
L. Oppie M 64 6.50 — — 1 16 11% 1 — —
J. Fujita M 87 7.00 — — — 26 23% 8 — —
Jackson Irvine M 87 7.00 — 1 — 19 13% 7 — —
C. Metcalfe M 87 6.20 — — — 21 14% — — —
M 87 6.60 — — — 21 14% 1 — —
A. Hountondji F 72 6.30 — — — 15 11% 1 — —
M. Kaars F 87 6.30 — — 1 23 15% — — —
A. Ceesay F 15 7.20 1 — 1 4 4% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli?
The final score was RB Leipzig 2–1 FC St. Pauli.
What did the model predict before RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli?
The model assigned 86% probability to a RB Leipzig win, 8% to a draw, and 5% to an FC St. Pauli win.