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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33 May 09, 2026 15:30 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig
#3 · 65 pts
2 – 1
Final score
FC St. Pauli
#18 · 26 pts
✓Model correct — prediction RB Leipzig
X. Schlager (ast. C. Baumgartner) 45'
W. Orban (ast. D. Raum) 55'
86' (ast. J. Irvine) A. Ceesay
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave RB Leipzig a 86% win probability (draw 8%, FC St. Pauli 5%). The final result was RB Leipzig 2–1 FC St. Pauli. In 1 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FC St. Pauli.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
4
3
Shots on target
2
1.32
Actual xG
0.52
1
Saves
1
71%
Possession
29%
3
Corners
5
13
Tackles
23
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
C. Lukeba
20'
⚽X. Schlager · ast. C. Baumgartner
45'
C. Baumgartner
51'
⚽W. Orban · ast. D. Raum
55'
64'
H. Wahl / L. Ritzka ↕
64'
F. Stevens / L. Oppie ↕
↕ A. Ouedraogo / N. Seiwald
69'
↕ D. Raum / M. Finkgrafe
69'
72'
A. Ceesay / A. Hountondji ↕
↕ B. Gruda / A. Nusa
80'
86'
ast. J. Irvine · A. Ceesay⚽
89'
M. Rasmussen / E. Smith ↕
89'
D. Sinani / C. Metcalfe ↕
↕ R. Baku / B. Henrichs
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
86.58%
RB ←
8.32%
X
5.11%
FC
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (RB Leipzig) 86.58% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
RB
3.58
1.32
-2.26
FC
0.69
0.52
-0.17
RB Leipzig dominated by xG (1.32 vs 0.52). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 34 89
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 34 73
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 34 65
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 34 62
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 34 61
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 34 59
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 34 47
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 34 44
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 34 43
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 34 40
11 Union Berlin Union Berlin 34 39
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 34 38
13 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 34 38
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 34 32
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 34 32
16 VfL Wolfsburg VfL Wolfsburg 34 29
17 1. FC Heidenheim 1. FC Heidenheim 34 26
18 FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 34 26
Lineups
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-3-3
26
87' G 6.30
22 D. Raum D. Raum 1 👟 69' D 7.30
23 Castello Lukeba Castello Lukeba 87' D 7.20
4 W. Orbán W. Orbán 1 ⚽ 87' D 9.00
17 Ridle Baku Ridle Baku 87' D 6.90
14 C. Baumgartner C. Baumgartner 1 👟 87' M 6.30
24 Xaver Schlager Xaver Schlager 1 ⚽ 87' M 7.90
20 A. Ouédraogo A. Ouédraogo 69' M 6.30
49 Y. Diomande Y. Diomande 87' F 7.30
40 Rômulo Rômulo 87' F 6.30
10 Brajan Gruda Brajan Gruda 79' F 7.00
Bench
7 Antonio Nusa Antonio Nusa 8' M 6.50
11 Conrad Harder Conrad Harder F
5 El Chadaille Bitshiabu El Chadaille Bitshiabu D
16
L. Klostermann D
35 Max Finkgräfe Max Finkgräfe 18' D 6.30
13 Nicolas Seiwald Nicolas Seiwald 18' M 6.30
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-5-2
22
87' G 6.90
21 Lars Ritzka Lars Ritzka 64' D 6.30
8 E. Smith E. Smith 87' D 6.20
15 Tomoya Ando Tomoya Ando 87' D 6.90
23 Louis Oppie Louis Oppie 64' M 6.50
16 Joel Chima Fujita Joel Chima Fujita 87' M 7.00
7 J. Irvine J. Irvine 1 👟 87' M 7.00
24 C. Metcalfe C. Metcalfe 87' M 6.20
11
87' M 6.60
27 Andreas Hountondji Andreas Hountondji 72' F 6.30
19 Martijn Kaars Martijn Kaars 87' F 6.30
Bench
9 Abdoulie Ceesay Abdoulie Ceesay 1 ⚽ 15' F 7.20
10 D. Sinani D. Sinani F
20 Mathias Rasmussen Mathias Rasmussen M
Best on the pitch
W. Orbán
W. Orbán
D · RB
9.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 140 pass
Xaver Schlager
Xaver Schlager
M · RB
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 64 pass
D. Raum
D. Raum
D · RB
7.30
1 👟
· 63 pass
Y. Diomande
Y. Diomande
F · RB
7.30
· 32 pass
Abdoulie Ceesay
Abdoulie Ceesay
F · FC
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 4 pass
Castello Lukeba
Castello Lukeba
D · RB
7.20
· 116 pass
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 87 6.30 — — — 28 24% — — —
D. Raum D 69 7.30 — 1 — 63 60% — — —
Castello Lukeba D 87 7.20 — — — 116 109% 3 1 —
W. Orbán D 87 9.00 1 — 1 140 136% 1 — —
Ridle Baku D 87 6.90 — — — 81 68% 2 — —
C. Baumgartner M 87 6.30 — 1 3 48 40% 2 1 —
Xaver Schlager M 87 7.90 1 — 1 64 57% 2 — —
A. Ouédraogo M 69 6.30 — — 1 21 19% — — —
Y. Diomande F 87 7.30 — — — 32 25% 1 — —
Rômulo F 87 6.30 — — 1 9 8% 2 — —
Brajan Gruda F 79 7.00 — — 2 32 23% — — —
Antonio Nusa M 8 6.50 — — — 2 2% — — —
Max Finkgräfe D 18 6.30 — — — 19 17% — — —
Nicolas Seiwald M 18 6.30 — — — 21 20% — — —
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 87 6.90 — — — 28 16% — — —
Lars Ritzka D 64 6.30 — — — 20 16% 2 — —
E. Smith D 87 6.20 — — 1 28 20% 1 — —
Tomoya Ando D 87 6.90 — — — 32 27% 2 — —
Louis Oppie M 64 6.50 — — 1 16 11% 1 — —
Joel Chima Fujita M 87 7.00 — — — 26 23% 8 — —
J. Irvine M 87 7.00 — 1 — 19 13% 7 — —
C. Metcalfe M 87 6.20 — — — 21 14% — — —
M 87 6.60 — — — 21 14% 1 — —
Andreas Hountondji F 72 6.30 — — — 15 11% 1 — —
Martijn Kaars F 87 6.30 — — 1 23 15% — — —
Abdoulie Ceesay F 15 7.20 1 — 1 4 4% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli?
The final score was RB Leipzig 2–1 FC St. Pauli.
What did the model predict before RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli?
The model assigned 86% probability to a RB Leipzig win, 8% to a draw, and 5% to an FC St. Pauli win.