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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 33 May 09, 2026 15:30 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig
#10 · 3 pts
2 – 1
Final score
FC St. Pauli
✓Model correct — prediction RB Leipzig
X. Schlager (ast. C. Baumgartner) 45'
W. Orban (ast. D. Raum) 55'
86' (ast. J. Irvine) A. Ceesay
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave RB Leipzig a 86% win probability (draw 8%, FC St. Pauli 5%). The final result was RB Leipzig 2–1 FC St. Pauli. In 1 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for FC St. Pauli.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
4
3
Shots on target
2
1.32
Actual xG
0.52
1
Saves
1
71%
Possession
29%
3
Corners
5
13
Tackles
23
2
🟨 Yellow cards
0
Match Events
C. Lukeba
20'
⚽X. Schlager · ast. C. Baumgartner
45'
C. Baumgartner
51'
⚽W. Orban · ast. D. Raum
55'
64'
H. Wahl / L. Ritzka ↕
64'
F. Stevens / L. Oppie ↕
↕ A. Ouedraogo / N. Seiwald
69'
↕ D. Raum / M. Finkgrafe
69'
72'
A. Ceesay / A. Hountondji ↕
↕ B. Gruda / A. Nusa
80'
86'
ast. J. Irvine · A. Ceesay⚽
89'
M. Rasmussen / E. Smith ↕
89'
D. Sinani / C. Metcalfe ↕
↕ R. Baku / B. Henrichs
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
86.58%
RB ←
8.32%
X
5.11%
FC
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (RB Leipzig) 86.58% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
RB
3.58
1.32
-2.26
FC
0.69
0.52
-0.17
RB Leipzig dominated by xG (1.32 vs 0.52). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3 9
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3 9
3 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 3 7
4 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 2 6
5 Bayern München Bayern München 2 4
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3 4
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3 4
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 3 4
9 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 3 4
10 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2 3
11 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 3 3
12 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2 3
13 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 3 3
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 2 3
15 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 3 1
16 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3 1
17 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 2 0
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 0
Lineups
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-3-3
26
87' G 6.30
22 D. Raum D. Raum 1 👟 69' D 7.30
23 C. Lukeba C. Lukeba 87' D 7.20
4 W. Orbán W. Orbán 1 ⚽ 87' D 9.00
17 R. Baku R. Baku 87' D 6.90
14 C. Baumgartner C. Baumgartner 1 👟 87' M 6.30
24 X. Schlager X. Schlager 1 ⚽ 87' M 7.90
20 A. Ouédraogo A. Ouédraogo 69' M 6.30
49 Y. Diomande Y. Diomande 87' F 7.30
40 Rômulo Rômulo 87' F 6.30
10 B. Gruda B. Gruda 79' F 7.00
Bench
7 A. Nusa A. Nusa 8' M 6.50
11 C. Harder C. Harder F
5 E. Bitshiabu E. Bitshiabu D
16 L. Klostermann L. Klostermann D
35 Max Finkgräfe Max Finkgräfe 18' D 6.30
13 N. Seiwald N. Seiwald 18' M 6.30
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli 3-5-2
22
87' G 6.90
21 L. Ritzka L. Ritzka 64' D 6.30
8 E. Smith E. Smith 87' D 6.20
15 T. Ando T. Ando 87' D 6.90
23 L. Oppie L. Oppie 64' M 6.50
16 J. Fujita J. Fujita 87' M 7.00
7 J. Irvine J. Irvine 1 👟 87' M 7.00
24 C. Metcalfe C. Metcalfe 87' M 6.20
11
87' M 6.60
27 A. Hountondji A. Hountondji 72' F 6.30
19 M. Kaars M. Kaars 87' F 6.30
Bench
9 Abdoulie Ceesay Abdoulie Ceesay 1 ⚽ 15' F 7.20
10 D. Sinani D. Sinani F
20 M. Rasmussen M. Rasmussen M
Best on the pitch
W. Orbán
W. Orbán
D · RB
9.00
1 ⚽
1 shots · 140 pass
X. Schlager
X. Schlager
M · RB
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots · 64 pass
D. Raum
D. Raum
D · RB
7.30
1 👟
· 63 pass
Y. Diomande
Y. Diomande
F · RB
7.30
· 32 pass
Abdoulie Ceesay
Abdoulie Ceesay
F · FC
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 4 pass
C. Lukeba
C. Lukeba
D · RB
7.20
· 116 pass
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 87 6.30 — — — 28 24% — — —
D. Raum D 69 7.30 — 1 — 63 60% — — —
C. Lukeba D 87 7.20 — — — 116 109% 3 1 —
W. Orbán D 87 9.00 1 — 1 140 136% 1 — —
R. Baku D 87 6.90 — — — 81 68% 2 — —
C. Baumgartner M 87 6.30 — 1 3 48 40% 2 1 —
X. Schlager M 87 7.90 1 — 1 64 57% 2 — —
A. Ouédraogo M 69 6.30 — — 1 21 19% — — —
Y. Diomande F 87 7.30 — — — 32 25% 1 — —
Rômulo F 87 6.30 — — 1 9 8% 2 — —
B. Gruda F 79 7.00 — — 2 32 23% — — —
A. Nusa M 8 6.50 — — — 2 2% — — —
Max Finkgräfe D 18 6.30 — — — 19 17% — — —
N. Seiwald M 18 6.30 — — — 21 20% — — —
FC St. Pauli FC St. Pauli — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 87 6.90 — — — 28 16% — — —
L. Ritzka D 64 6.30 — — — 20 16% 2 — —
E. Smith D 87 6.20 — — 1 28 20% 1 — —
T. Ando D 87 6.90 — — — 32 27% 2 — —
L. Oppie M 64 6.50 — — 1 16 11% 1 — —
J. Fujita M 87 7.00 — — — 26 23% 8 — —
J. Irvine M 87 7.00 — 1 — 19 13% 7 — —
C. Metcalfe M 87 6.20 — — — 21 14% — — —
M 87 6.60 — — — 21 14% 1 — —
A. Hountondji F 72 6.30 — — — 15 11% 1 — —
M. Kaars F 87 6.30 — — 1 23 15% — — —
Abdoulie Ceesay F 15 7.20 1 — 1 4 4% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli?
The final score was RB Leipzig 2–1 FC St. Pauli.
What did the model predict before RB Leipzig vs FC St. Pauli?
The model assigned 86% probability to a RB Leipzig win, 8% to a draw, and 5% to an FC St. Pauli win.