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Romania - Poland

UEFA Nations League November 14, 2026 20:45 Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City
Romania
#4 · 0 pts
vs
Poland
#3 · 4 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
18.45%
Win
Romania
34.87%
Draw
46.68%
Win
Poland
0.58
Expected xG
1.18

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–0 (19.15%)
1X2 Result
1 18%
X 35%
2 47%
Double Chance
1X 53%
X2 82%
12 65%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 49%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Poland a 46% win probability, against 34% for a draw and 18% for Romania. Expected goals are 0.6 for Romania and 1.2 for Poland (total 1.8), with a 73% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 19.15% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Romania have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Poland.

Season Stats

Romania
6W 0D 4L
Poland
2W 2D 6L
Averages per game
2.1
Goals
1.6
1.6
Conceded
2.0
4.8
Shots OT
5.0
4.3
Corners
4.4
50%
Poss.
47%
Percentages
90%
O 1.5
70%
90%
O 2.5
70%
50%
BTTS
60%
30%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
60%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Romania
3W 0D 2L · at home
Poland
1W 0D 4L · away
2.4
gls/g
1.0
1.4
Conceded
2.4
60%
Win %
20%
60%
Win or Draw
20%
80%
O 1.5
60%
80%
O 2.5
60%
60%
O 3.5
60%
60%
BTTS
60%
20%
Clean Sht
0%
20%
Failed to Score
40%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Romania Poland →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 17.3% 20.4% 12.0% 4.7% 1.4% 0.3%
1 10.0% 11.7% 6.9% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2%
2 2.9% 3.4% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% — —
4 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Romania Romania
L Sweden 0–1
L Poland 6–0
L Bosnia & Herzegovina 2–4
L Sweden 2–1
W Cyprus 4–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Poland Poland
L Bosnia & Herzegovina 1–0
W Romania 6–0
L Sweden 3–1
D Bosnia & Herzegovina 0–0
L Scotland 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Romania Romania
Attack
25
Defence
45
Form
2
Poland Poland
Attack
45
Defence
68
Form
30
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Romania
0
Draw
1
Poland
2 Oct 2026 UEFA Nations League 0–6

League B - Group D

# Team G Pts
1 Sweden Sweden 4 10
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnia & Herzegovina 4 8
3 Poland Poland 4 4
4 Romania Romania 4 0

What's at stake · League B - Group D

Top 2 advance to the next round

Romania Poland
Current #4 #3
→ Romania #4 #3
→ Draw #4 #3
→ Poland #4 #3

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Romania vs Poland?
The model gives Romania a 18% win probability, 34% for a draw, and 46% for an Poland win.
How many goals are expected in Romania vs Poland?
Expected goals: Romania 0.6, Poland 1.2 (total 1.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 73%.
What is the most likely score in Romania vs Poland?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 19.15%.