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San Marino - Belarus

UEFA Nations League November 12, 2026 20:45 Children's Mercy Park, Kansas City
San Marino
#4 · 0 pts
vs
Belarus
#2 · 7 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
8.86%
Win
San Marino
26.38%
Draw
64.76%
Win
Belarus
0.33
Expected xG
1.56

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–1 (22.38%)
1X2 Result
1 9%
X 26%
2 65%
Double Chance
1X 35%
X2 91%
12 74%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 52%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Belarus a 64% win probability, against 26% for a draw and 8% for San Marino. Expected goals are 0.3 for San Marino and 1.6 for Belarus (total 1.9), with a 74% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 22.38% probability. In 1 previous meetings, San Marino have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Belarus.

Season Stats

San Marino
2W 1D 5L
Belarus
3W 5D 2L
Averages per game
0.8
Goals
0.8
2.4
Conceded
0.6
2.8
Shots OT
3.0
3.3
Corners
3.7
40%
Poss.
42%
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
50%
63%
O 2.5
10%
38%
BTTS
20%
13%
Clean Sht
60%
ℹ Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
13%
O 3.5
23%
BTTS
San Marino
1W 1D 2L · at home
Belarus
1W 2D 2L · away
0.5
gls/g
0.4
2.8
Conceded
1.0
25%
Win %
20%
50%
Win or Draw
60%
75%
O 1.5
60%
50%
O 2.5
0%
25%
O 3.5
0%
25%
BTTS
20%
25%
Clean Sht
40%
50%
Failed to Score
60%
last 5
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ San Marino Belarus →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.1% 23.6% 18.4% 9.6% 3.7% 1.2%
1 5.0% 7.8% 6.1% 3.1% 1.2% 0.4%
2 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
3 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% — —
4 — — — — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

San Marino San Marino
L Albania 2–1
L Belarus 4–0
L Albania 0–3
L Finland 0–7
W Liechtenstein 1–3
Home clean sheet (120 days) 20%
Belarus Belarus
W Finland 1–0
W San Marino 4–0
D Finland 0–0
L Albania 2–0
D Bulgaria 1–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 33%

Playing profile

San Marino San Marino
Attack
17
Defence
32
Form
0
Belarus Belarus
Attack
38
Defence
77
Form
55
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
San Marino
0
Draw
1
Belarus
3 Oct 2026 UEFA Nations League 0–4

League C - Group A

# Team G Pts
1 Albania Albania 4 9
2 Belarus Belarus 4 7
3 Finland Finland 4 7
4 San Marino San Marino 4 0

What's at stake · League C - Group A

Top 2 advance to the next round

San Marino Belarus
Current #4 #2
→ San Marino #4 #3
→ Draw #4 #2
→ Belarus #4 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win San Marino vs Belarus?
The model gives San Marino a 8% win probability, 26% for a draw, and 64% for an Belarus win.
How many goals are expected in San Marino vs Belarus?
Expected goals: San Marino 0.3, Belarus 1.6 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 74%.
What is the most likely score in San Marino vs Belarus?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 22.38%.