Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 14
May 03, 2026 21:00
Artur
(ast. Wendell)
17'
Ferreirinha
(ast. Jonathan Calleri)
73'
62'
(ast. Everton Ribeiro)
Luciano Juba
90'+7
Erick
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sao Paulo a 43% win probability (draw 27%, Bahia 28%). The final result was Sao Paulo 2–2 Bahia.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
14
8
Shots on target
7
2.14
Actual xG
1.92
4
Saves
6
38%
Possession
62%
13
Corners
10
9
Tackles
11
4
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
André Silva
-5'
⚽Artur
· ast. Wendell
17'
41'
Nicolás Acevedo
Damián Bobadilla
45'
Lucas Ramon
/ Cédric Soares
50'
56'
Mateo Sanabria
/
Cristian Olivera
62'
ast. Everton Ribeiro ·
Luciano Juba⚽
Cauly
/ Lucas Moura
63'
Wendell
/ Enzo Díaz
71'
Luciano
/ Ferreirinha
71'
Danielzinho
/ Luan Santos
71'
⚽Ferreirinha
· ast. Jonathan Calleri
73'
Enzo Díaz
81'
82'
Michel Araújo
/
Jean Lucas
82'
Rodrigo Nestor
/
Everton Ribeiro
82'
Ademir
/
Erick Pulga
90'+4
Mateo Sanabria
Jonathan Calleri
90'+6
90'+7
Erick
90'+7
Erick⚽
90'
Everaldo
/
Willian José
Pre-match prediction
43.68%
Sao
27.64%
X ←
28.67%
Bahia
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
27.64%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.54
2.14
+0.6
1.23
1.92
+0.69
xG dominance was balanced (2.14 – 1.92).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
Rafael
G
Rafael
G
19
Lucas Ramon
50'
D
Lucas Ramon
50'
D
28
A. Franco
D
A. Franco
D
35
Sabino
D
Sabino
D
18
Wendell
1 👟
71'
D
Wendell
1 👟
71'
D
16
Damián Bobadilla
M
Damián Bobadilla
M
94
Danielzinho
71'
M
Danielzinho
71'
M
37
Artur
1 ⚽
M
Artur
1 ⚽
M
10
Luciano
71'
M
Luciano
71'
M
80
Cauly
63'
M
Cauly
63'
M
9
J. Calleri
1 👟
F
J. Calleri
1 👟
F
Bench
17
André Silva
F
André Silva
F
31
Carlos Coronel
G
Carlos Coronel
G
21
Cédric Soares
50'
D
Cédric Soares
50'
D
48
D. Ferreira
M
D. Ferreira
M
13
E. Díaz
29'
D
E. Díaz
29'
D
11
Ferreira
1 ⚽
29'
F
Ferreira
1 ⚽
29'
F
14
Gonzalo Tapia
F
Gonzalo Tapia
F
33
Luan Santos
29'
M
Luan Santos
29'
M
45
Lucca
F
Lucca
F
22
G
5
N. Acevedo
D
N. Acevedo
D
33
David Duarte
D
David Duarte
D
21
S. Ramos
D
S. Ramos
D
46
Luciano Juba
1 ⚽
D
Luciano Juba
1 ⚽
D
14
Erick
1 ⚽
M
Erick
1 ⚽
M
6
Jean Lucas
82'
M
Jean Lucas
82'
M
99
C. Olivera
56'
M
C. Olivera
56'
M
10
Éverton Ribeiro
1 👟
82'
M
Éverton Ribeiro
1 👟
82'
M
16
Erick Pulga
82'
M
Erick Pulga
82'
M
12
Willian José
F
Willian José
F
Bench
27
Everaldo
F
Everaldo
F
3
Gabriel Xavier
D
Gabriel Xavier
D
2
Gilberto
D
Gilberto
D
15
M. Araújo
18'
M
M. Araújo
18'
M
23
M. Sanabria
44'
F
M. Sanabria
44'
F
Best on the pitch
David Duarte
D · Bahia
8.20
1 shots
· 54 pass
Luciano Juba
D · Bahia
8.00
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 48 pass
Artur
M · Sao
8.00
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 26 pass
G · Bahia
8.00
· 21 pass
Lucas Ramon
D · Sao
7.90
2 shots
· 18 pass
Ferreira
F · Sao
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 13 pass
Sao Paulo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | G | 100 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 20 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 50 | 7.90 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Franco | D | 100 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Sabino | D | 100 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Wendell | D | 71 | 6.70 | — | 1 | — | 32 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 100 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 36 | 33% | — | 1 | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| Artur | M | 100 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 3 | 26 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Luciano | M | 71 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 13 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Cauly | M | 63 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Calleri | F | 100 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Cédric Soares | D | 50 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 11 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Díaz | D | 29 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | 1 | — |
| Ferreira | F | 29 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | 29 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
Bahia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 100 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 21 | 20% | — | — | — | |
| N. Acevedo | D | 100 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 85 | 71% | — | 1 | — |
| David Duarte | D | 100 | 8.20 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 49% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Ramos | D | 100 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 65 | 61% | — | — | — |
| Luciano Juba | D | 100 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 1 | 48 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Erick | M | 100 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 2 | 59 | 54% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Jean Lucas | M | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| C. Olivera | M | 56 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 26 | 24% | — | — | — |
| Éverton Ribeiro | M | 82 | 7.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 61 | 52% | — | — | — |
| Erick Pulga | M | 82 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 21 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Willian José | F | 100 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 19 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Araújo | M | 18 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Sanabria | F | 44 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
The final score was Sao Paulo 2–2 Bahia.
What did the model predict before Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
The model assigned 43% probability to a Sao Paulo win, 27% to a draw, and 28% to an Bahia win.