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MLS · Regular Season - 17 July 26, 2026 02:30
St. Louis City
#7 · 25 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Colorado Rapids
#13 · 19 pts
✓Model correct — prediction St. Louis City
T. Ostrak (ast. T. Totland) 83'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 65% win probability (draw 21%, Colorado Rapids 12%). The final result was St. Louis City 1–0 Colorado Rapids. In 1 previous meetings, St. Louis City have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Colorado Rapids.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
2
3
Shots on target
0
1.03
Actual xG
0.11
0
Saves
2
65%
Possession
35%
10
Corners
1
10
Tackles
10
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
12'
R. Holding
17'
M. Navarro / D. Sealy ↕
25'
H. Ojediran
C. Durkin
45'+3
46'
G. Minoungou / D. Yapi ↕
46'
N. Cobb / R. Cannon ↕
55'
K. Thompson / H. Ojediran ↕
↕ S. Jeong / E. Lowen
58'
68'
J. Atencio
69'
W. Frederick / J. Atencio ↕
↕ C. Durkin / T. Ostrak
76'
↕ S. Becher / P. Ault
76'
⚽T. Ostrak · ast. T. Totland
83'
↕ J. Orozco / L. MacNaughton
87'
↕ M. Hartel / M. Perez
87'
90'+6
K. Thompson
Pre-match prediction
65.96%
St. ←
21.54%
X
12.49%
Colorado
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (St. Louis City) 65.96% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
St.
1.77
1.03
-0.74
Colorado
0.38
0.11
-0.27
St. Louis City dominated by xG (1.03 vs 0.11). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 16 33
2 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 18 33
3 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 17 33
4 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 16 26
5 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 16 26
6 FC Dallas FC Dallas 17 26
7 St. Louis City St. Louis City 17 25
8 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 16 24
9 Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 17 23
10 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 17 21
11 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 18 21
12 San Diego San Diego 17 20
13 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 17 19
14 Austin Austin 17 17
15 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 17 14
Lineups
St. Louis City St. Louis City 3-4-3
1 Roman Bürki Roman Bürki G 6.60
21 Dante Polvara Dante Polvara D 7.30
32 Timo Baumgartl Timo Baumgartl D 8.00
99 Jaziel Orozco Jaziel Orozco 87' D 7.70
14 Tomas Totland Tomas Totland 1 👟 M 7.30
24 Daniel Edelman Daniel Edelman M 6.60
8 C. Durkin C. Durkin 76' M 6.50
6 Conrad Wallem Conrad Wallem M 6.70
17 Marcel Hartel Marcel Hartel 87' F 7.20
11 Simon Becher Simon Becher 76' F 6.30
77 Jeong Sang-bin Jeong Sang-bin 58' F 6.90
Bench
39 Benjamin Lundt Benjamin Lundt G
10 Eduard Löwen Eduard Löwen 38' M 6.90
27 Fallou Fall Fallou Fall D
5 Lukas MacNaughton Lukas MacNaughton 9' D 6.60
28 Miguel Perez Miguel Perez 9' M 6.70
59 Mykhi Joyner Mykhi Joyner M
29 Palmer Ault Palmer Ault 20' M 6.50
20 Rafael Santos Rafael Santos D
7 Tomáš Ostrák Tomáš Ostrák 1 ⚽ 20' M 7.70
Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 4-3-3
41 Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen G 6.90
5 Loïc Williams Loïc Williams D 6.30
6 R. Holding R. Holding 12' D 3.30
22 Lucas Herrington Lucas Herrington D 7.00
4 Reggie Cannon Reggie Cannon 45' D 6.60
8 H. Ojediran H. Ojediran 55' M 6.90
12 J. Atencio J. Atencio 69' M 6.20
10 Paxten Aaronson Paxten Aaronson M 6.90
7 D. Sealy D. Sealy 17' F 6.30
9 Rafael Navarro Rafael Navarro F 7.00
77 Darren Yapi Darren Yapi 45' F 6.60
Bench
31 Adam Beaudry Adam Beaudry G
16 Alex Harris Alex Harris F
32 Donavan Phillip Donavan Phillip F
93 Georgi Minoungou Georgi Minoungou 51' F 6.90
2 Keegan Rosenberry Keegan Rosenberry D
33 Kosi Thompson Kosi Thompson 41' D 6.30
29 M. Navarro M. Navarro 79' D 7.30
24 Noah Cobb Noah Cobb 51' D 6.70
13 W. Frederick II W. Frederick II 27' M 6.50
Best on the pitch
Timo Baumgartl
Timo Baumgartl
D · St.
8.00
· 71 pass
Jaziel Orozco
Jaziel Orozco
D · St.
7.70
· 78 pass
Tomáš Ostrák
Tomáš Ostrák
M · St.
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 7 pass
Dante Polvara
Dante Polvara
D · St.
7.30
1 shots · 82 pass
Tomas Totland
Tomas Totland
M · St.
7.30
1 👟
2 shots · 46 pass
M. Navarro
M. Navarro
D · Colorado
7.30
· 30 pass
St. Louis City St. Louis City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Roman Bürki G 96 6.60 — — — 18 15% — — —
Dante Polvara D 96 7.30 — — 1 82 79% 2 — —
Timo Baumgartl D 96 8.00 — — — 71 65% 1 — —
Jaziel Orozco D 87 7.70 — — — 78 76% 2 — —
Tomas Totland M 96 7.30 — 1 2 46 42% 3 — —
Daniel Edelman M 96 6.60 — — — 58 49% — — —
C. Durkin M 76 6.50 — — 1 32 26% — 1 —
Conrad Wallem M 96 6.70 — — — 48 43% 1 — —
Marcel Hartel F 87 7.20 — — 1 48 42% 1 — —
Simon Becher F 76 6.30 — — 1 8 5% — — —
Jeong Sang-bin F 58 6.90 — — 2 27 23% — — —
Eduard Löwen M 38 6.90 — — — 26 21% — — —
Lukas MacNaughton D 9 6.60 — — — 8 8% — — —
Miguel Perez M 9 6.70 — — — 2 1% — — —
Palmer Ault M 20 6.50 — — — 4 3% — — —
Tomáš Ostrák M 20 7.70 1 — 1 7 6% — — —
Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Nicholas Defreitas-Hansen G 96 6.90 — — — 43 33% — — —
Loïc Williams D 96 6.30 — — — 40 31% 1 — —
R. Holding D 12 3.30 — — — 7 6% 1 — 1
Lucas Herrington D 96 7.00 — — — 45 37% — — —
Reggie Cannon D 45 6.60 — — — 16 14% — — —
H. Ojediran M 55 6.90 — — — 27 26% 1 1 —
J. Atencio M 69 6.20 — — — 16 11% — 1 —
Paxten Aaronson M 96 6.90 — — — 17 14% — — —
D. Sealy F 17 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
Rafael Navarro F 96 7.00 — — 2 19 16% 2 — —
Darren Yapi F 45 6.60 — — — 15 10% — — —
Georgi Minoungou F 51 6.90 — — — 6 3% 2 — —
Kosi Thompson D 41 6.30 — — — 7 4% 1 — —
M. Navarro D 79 7.30 — — — 30 25% 2 — —
Noah Cobb D 51 6.70 — — — 10 8% — — —
W. Frederick II M 27 6.50 — — — 3 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids?
The final score was St. Louis City 1–0 Colorado Rapids.
What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids?
The model assigned 65% probability to a St. Louis City win, 21% to a draw, and 12% to an Colorado Rapids win.