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MLS · Regular Season - 17 July 26, 2026 02:30
St. Louis City
#4 · 51 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Colorado Rapids
#9 · 43 pts
✓Model correct — prediction St. Louis City
T. Ostrak (ast. T. Totland) 83'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave St. Louis City a 65% win probability (draw 21%, Colorado Rapids 12%). The final result was St. Louis City 1–0 Colorado Rapids. In 2 previous meetings, St. Louis City have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Colorado Rapids.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
2
3
Shots on target
0
1.03
Actual xG
0.11
0
Saves
2
65%
Possession
35%
10
Corners
1
10
Tackles
10
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
12'
R. Holding
17'
M. Navarro / D. Sealy ↕
25'
H. Ojediran
C. Durkin
45'+3
46'
G. Minoungou / D. Yapi ↕
46'
N. Cobb / R. Cannon ↕
55'
K. Thompson / H. Ojediran ↕
↕ S. Jeong / E. Lowen
58'
68'
J. Atencio
69'
W. Frederick / J. Atencio ↕
↕ C. Durkin / T. Ostrak
76'
↕ S. Becher / P. Ault
76'
⚽T. Ostrak · ast. T. Totland
83'
↕ J. Orozco / L. MacNaughton
87'
↕ M. Hartel / M. Perez
87'
90'+6
K. Thompson
Pre-match prediction
65.96%
St. ←
21.54%
X
12.49%
Colorado
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (St. Louis City) 65.96% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
St.
1.77
1.03
-0.74
Colorado
0.38
0.11
-0.27
St. Louis City dominated by xG (1.03 vs 0.11). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 33 61
2 FC Dallas FC Dallas 33 55
3 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 33 52
4 St. Louis City St. Louis City 33 51
5 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 33 51
6 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 33 47
7 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 33 44
8 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 33 43
9 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 33 43
10 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 33 43
11 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 33 42
12 Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 33 41
13 San Diego San Diego 33 38
14 Austin Austin 33 34
15 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 33 23
Lineups
St. Louis City St. Louis City 3-4-3
1 R. Bürki R. Bürki G 6.60
21 D. Polvara D. Polvara D 7.30
32 T. Baumgartl T. Baumgartl D 8.00
99 J. Orozco J. Orozco 87' D 7.70
14 T. Totland T. Totland 1 👟 M 7.30
24 D. Edelman D. Edelman M 6.60
8 C. Durkin C. Durkin 76' M 6.50
6 C. Wallem C. Wallem M 6.70
17 M. Hartel M. Hartel 87' F 7.20
11 S. Becher S. Becher 76' F 6.30
77 Jeong Sang-Bin Jeong Sang-Bin 58' F 6.90
Bench
39 B. Lundt B. Lundt G
10 E. Löwen E. Löwen 38' M 6.90
27 F. Fall F. Fall D
5 L. MacNaughton L. MacNaughton 9' D 6.60
59 M. Joyner M. Joyner M
28 M. Perez M. Perez 9' M 6.70
29 Palmer Ault Palmer Ault 20' M 6.50
20 Rafael Santos Rafael Santos D
7 T. Ostrák T. Ostrák 1 ⚽ 20' M 7.70
Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 4-3-3
41 N. Defreitas N. Defreitas G 6.90
5 Loïc Williams Loïc Williams D 6.30
6 R. Holding R. Holding 12' D 3.30
22 L. Herrington L. Herrington D 7.00
4 R. Cannon R. Cannon 45' D 6.60
8 H. Ojediran H. Ojediran 55' M 6.90
12 J. Atencio J. Atencio 69' M 6.20
10 P. Aaronson P. Aaronson M 6.90
7 D. Sealy D. Sealy 17' F 6.30
9 Rafael Navarro Rafael Navarro F 7.00
77 D. Yapi D. Yapi 45' F 6.60
Bench
31 A. Beaudry A. Beaudry G
16 A. Harris A. Harris F
32 D. Phillip D. Phillip F
93 G. Minoungou G. Minoungou 51' F 6.90
2 K. Rosenberry K. Rosenberry D
33 K. Thompson K. Thompson 41' D 6.30
29 M. Navarro M. Navarro 79' D 7.30
24 N. Cobb N. Cobb 51' D 6.70
13 W. Frederick II W. Frederick II 27' M 6.50
Best on the pitch
T. Baumgartl
T. Baumgartl
D · St.
8.00
· 71 pass
J. Orozco
J. Orozco
D · St.
7.70
· 78 pass
T. Ostrák
T. Ostrák
M · St.
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 7 pass
D. Polvara
D. Polvara
D · St.
7.30
1 shots · 82 pass
T. Totland
T. Totland
M · St.
7.30
1 👟
2 shots · 46 pass
M. Navarro
M. Navarro
D · Colorado
7.30
· 30 pass
St. Louis City St. Louis City — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
R. Bürki G 96 6.60 — — — 18 15% — — —
D. Polvara D 96 7.30 — — 1 82 79% 2 — —
T. Baumgartl D 96 8.00 — — — 71 65% 1 — —
J. Orozco D 87 7.70 — — — 78 76% 2 — —
T. Totland M 96 7.30 — 1 2 46 42% 3 — —
D. Edelman M 96 6.60 — — — 58 49% — — —
C. Durkin M 76 6.50 — — 1 32 26% — 1 —
C. Wallem M 96 6.70 — — — 48 43% 1 — —
M. Hartel F 87 7.20 — — 1 48 42% 1 — —
S. Becher F 76 6.30 — — 1 8 5% — — —
Jeong Sang-Bin F 58 6.90 — — 2 27 23% — — —
E. Löwen M 38 6.90 — — — 26 21% — — —
L. MacNaughton D 9 6.60 — — — 8 8% — — —
M. Perez M 9 6.70 — — — 2 1% — — —
Palmer Ault M 20 6.50 — — — 4 3% — — —
T. Ostrák M 20 7.70 1 — 1 7 6% — — —
Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Defreitas G 96 6.90 — — — 43 33% — — —
Loïc Williams D 96 6.30 — — — 40 31% 1 — —
R. Holding D 12 3.30 — — — 7 6% 1 — 1
L. Herrington D 96 7.00 — — — 45 37% — — —
R. Cannon D 45 6.60 — — — 16 14% — — —
H. Ojediran M 55 6.90 — — — 27 26% 1 1 —
J. Atencio M 69 6.20 — — — 16 11% — 1 —
P. Aaronson M 96 6.90 — — — 17 14% — — —
D. Sealy F 17 6.30 — — — 1 1% — — —
Rafael Navarro F 96 7.00 — — 2 19 16% 2 — —
D. Yapi F 45 6.60 — — — 15 10% — — —
G. Minoungou F 51 6.90 — — — 6 3% 2 — —
K. Thompson D 41 6.30 — — — 7 4% 1 — —
M. Navarro D 79 7.30 — — — 30 25% 2 — —
N. Cobb D 51 6.70 — — — 10 8% — — —
W. Frederick II M 27 6.50 — — — 3 2% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids?
The final score was St. Louis City 1–0 Colorado Rapids.
What did the model predict before St. Louis City vs Colorado Rapids?
The model assigned 65% probability to a St. Louis City win, 21% to a draw, and 12% to an Colorado Rapids win.