Liga MX
· Clausura - Quarter-finals
May 04, 2026 03:15
8'
(ast. E. Montiel)
E. Valencia
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 49% win probability (draw 25%, CF Pachuca 24%). The final result was Toluca 0–1 CF Pachuca. In 3 previous meetings, Toluca have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for CF Pachuca.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
11
4
Shots on target
6
0.56
Actual xG
1.27
5
Saves
4
72%
Possession
28%
10
Corners
4
10
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
8'
ast. E. Montiel ·
E. Valencia⚽
41'
A. Bautista
S. Cordova
/ Paulinho
60'
J. Angulo
/ N. Castro
60'
D. Barbosa
/ S. Simon
60'
64'
A. Dominguez
/
O. Idrissi
75'
R. Lopez
/
C. Sanchez
P. Perez
/ F. Rossi
75'
A. Alvarez
76'
A. Alvarez
/ M. Isais
82'
90'+7
S. Rodriguez
90'
S. Rodriguez
/
E. Montiel
90'
J. Berlanga
/
Kenedy
Pre-match prediction
49.58%
Toluca
25.71%
X
24.71%
CF ←
we assigned to the actual result (CF Pachuca)
24.71%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.78
0.56
-1.22
1.23
1.27
+0.04
CF Pachuca dominated by xG (1.27 vs 0.56).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Luis García
G
Luis García
G
35
Alek Álvarez
82'
D
Alek Álvarez
82'
D
25
E. López
D
E. López
D
4
D
2
Diego Barbosa
60'
D
Diego Barbosa
60'
D
14
M. Ruiz
M
M. Ruiz
M
5
M
15
Pavel Pérez
75'
M
Pavel Pérez
75'
M
10
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
60'
M
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
60'
M
7
Sebastián Córdova
60'
M
Sebastián Córdova
60'
M
29
Jorge Díaz
F
Jorge Díaz
F
Bench
206
Erick Orta
D
Erick Orta
D
24
Fernando Arce Juárez
M
Fernando Arce Juárez
M
27
Franco Rossi
23'
F
Franco Rossi
23'
F
17
Mauricio Isais
16'
D
Mauricio Isais
16'
D
8
Nicolás Castro
38'
M
Nicolás Castro
38'
M
19
Santiago Simón
38'
M
Santiago Simón
38'
M
33
Victor Arteaga
M
Victor Arteaga
M
25
Carlos Moreno
G
Carlos Moreno
G
26
Alan Bautista
D
Alan Bautista
D
2
D
4
Eduardo Bauermann
D
Eduardo Bauermann
D
14
Carlos Sánchez
75'
D
Carlos Sánchez
75'
D
8
Víctor Guzmán
M
Víctor Guzmán
M
16
Christian Rivera
M
Christian Rivera
M
11
Oussama Idrissi
64'
M
Oussama Idrissi
64'
M
28
Elías Montiel
1 👟
M
Elías Montiel
1 👟
M
29
Kenedy
M
Kenedy
M
10
Enner Valencia
1 ⚽
F
Enner Valencia
1 ⚽
F
Bench
18
Alexei Domínguez
34'
F
Alexei Domínguez
34'
F
184
C. Alfaro
D
139
J. Ramirez
F
7
Luis Quiñones
F
Luis Quiñones
F
5
Pedro Pedraza
M
Pedro Pedraza
M
188
Sergio Rodríguez
8'
M
Sergio Rodríguez
8'
M
Best on the pitch
Luis García
G · Toluca
8.30
· 30 pass
Enner Valencia
F · CF
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
Kenedy
M · CF
7.30
2 shots
· 11 pass
M. Ruiz
M · Toluca
7.30
5 shots
· 95 pass
Eduardo Bauermann
D · CF
7.20
· 10 pass
Alan Bautista
D · CF
7.20
· 40 pass
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis García | G | 98 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Alek Álvarez | D | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 45% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. López | D | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 67 | 62% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 70 | 62% | — | — | — | |
| Diego Barbosa | D | 60 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 21% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Ruiz | M | 98 | 7.30 | — | — | 5 | 95 | 85% | — | — | — |
| M | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 86 | 77% | — | — | — | |
| Pavel Pérez | M | 75 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Ricardo Angulo | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastián Córdova | M | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Jorge Díaz | F | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Franco Rossi | F | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Mauricio Isais | D | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Castro | M | 38 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | M | 38 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | — | — | — |
CF Pachuca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Moreno | G | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 28 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Alan Bautista | D | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 26% | 4 | 1 | — |
| D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | — | — | — | |
| Eduardo Bauermann | D | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Carlos Sánchez | D | 75 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Víctor Guzmán | M | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | 5 | 34 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Christian Rivera | M | 98 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Oussama Idrissi | M | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Elías Montiel | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 26 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Kenedy | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| Enner Valencia | F | 98 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Alexei Domínguez | F | 34 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Sergio Rodríguez | M | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
The final score was Toluca 0–1 CF Pachuca.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Toluca win, 25% to a draw, and 24% to an CF Pachuca win.