Liga MX
· Clausura - Quarter-finals
May 04, 2026 03:15
8'
(ast. E. Montiel)
E. Valencia
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 49% win probability (draw 25%, CF Pachuca 24%). The final result was Toluca 0–1 CF Pachuca. In 3 previous meetings, Toluca have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for CF Pachuca.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
11
4
Shots on target
6
0.56
Actual xG
1.27
5
Saves
4
72%
Possession
28%
10
Corners
4
10
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
8'
ast. E. Montiel ·
E. Valencia⚽
41'
A. Bautista
S. Cordova
/ Paulinho
60'
J. Angulo
/ N. Castro
60'
D. Barbosa
/ S. Simon
60'
64'
A. Dominguez
/
O. Idrissi
75'
R. Lopez
/
C. Sanchez
P. Perez
/ F. Rossi
75'
A. Alvarez
76'
A. Alvarez
/ M. Isais
82'
90'+7
S. Rodriguez
90'
S. Rodriguez
/
E. Montiel
90'
J. Berlanga
/
Kenedy
Pre-match prediction
49.58%
Toluca
25.71%
X
24.71%
CF ←
we assigned to the actual result (CF Pachuca)
24.71%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.78
0.56
-1.22
1.23
1.27
+0.04
CF Pachuca dominated by xG (1.27 vs 0.56).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Luis García
G
Luis García
G
35
Alek Álvarez
82'
D
Alek Álvarez
82'
D
25
E. López
D
E. López
D
4
D
2
D. Barbosa
60'
D
D. Barbosa
60'
D
14
M. Ruiz
M
M. Ruiz
M
5
M
15
P. Pérez
75'
M
P. Pérez
75'
M
10
J. Angulo
60'
M
J. Angulo
60'
M
7
Sebastián Córdova
60'
M
Sebastián Córdova
60'
M
29
J. Díaz
F
J. Díaz
F
Bench
206
Erick Orta
D
Erick Orta
D
24
F. Arce
M
F. Arce
M
27
F. Rossi
23'
F
F. Rossi
23'
F
17
M. Isaís
16'
D
M. Isaís
16'
D
8
N. Castro
38'
M
N. Castro
38'
M
19
Santiago Simón
38'
M
Santiago Simón
38'
M
33
V. Arteaga
M
V. Arteaga
M
25
C. Moreno
G
C. Moreno
G
26
Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
D
Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
D
2
D
4
Eduardo Bauermann
D
Eduardo Bauermann
D
14
C. Sánchez
75'
D
C. Sánchez
75'
D
8
V. Guzmán
M
V. Guzmán
M
16
C. Rivera
M
C. Rivera
M
11
O. Idrissi
64'
M
O. Idrissi
64'
M
28
E. Montiel
1 👟
M
E. Montiel
1 👟
M
29
Kenedy
M
Kenedy
M
10
E. Valencia
1 ⚽
F
E. Valencia
1 ⚽
F
Bench
18
Alexei Domínguez
34'
F
Alexei Domínguez
34'
F
184
C. Alfaro
D
C. Alfaro
D
139
Jonatan Ramirez
F
7
L. Quiñones
F
L. Quiñones
F
5
P. Pedraza
M
P. Pedraza
M
188
S. Rodríguez
8'
M
S. Rodríguez
8'
M
Best on the pitch
Luis García
G · Toluca
8.30
· 30 pass
E. Valencia
F · CF
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
Kenedy
M · CF
7.30
2 shots
· 11 pass
M. Ruiz
M · Toluca
7.30
5 shots
· 95 pass
Eduardo Bauermann
D · CF
7.20
· 10 pass
Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez
D · CF
7.20
· 40 pass
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis García | G | 98 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Alek Álvarez | D | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 45% | 1 | 1 | — |
| E. López | D | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 67 | 62% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 70 | 62% | — | — | — | |
| D. Barbosa | D | 60 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 21% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Ruiz | M | 98 | 7.30 | — | — | 5 | 95 | 85% | — | — | — |
| M | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 86 | 77% | — | — | — | |
| P. Pérez | M | 75 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 39% | — | — | — |
| J. Angulo | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastián Córdova | M | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Díaz | F | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| F. Rossi | F | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| M. Isaís | D | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| N. Castro | M | 38 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | M | 38 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | — | — | — |
CF Pachuca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Moreno | G | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 28 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Alán Ernesto Bautista Gutiérrez | D | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 26% | 4 | 1 | — |
| D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | — | — | — | |
| Eduardo Bauermann | D | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Sánchez | D | 75 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| V. Guzmán | M | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | 5 | 34 | 25% | — | — | — |
| C. Rivera | M | 98 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Idrissi | M | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | — | — | — |
| E. Montiel | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 26 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Kenedy | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Valencia | F | 98 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Alexei Domínguez | F | 34 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| S. Rodríguez | M | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
The final score was Toluca 0–1 CF Pachuca.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Toluca win, 25% to a draw, and 24% to an CF Pachuca win.