Liga MX
· Clausura - Quarter-finals
May 04, 2026 03:15
8'
(ast. E. Montiel)
E. Valencia
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Toluca a 49% win probability (draw 25%, CF Pachuca 24%). The final result was Toluca 0–1 CF Pachuca. In 3 previous meetings, Toluca have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for CF Pachuca.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
11
4
Shots on target
6
0.56
Actual xG
1.27
5
Saves
4
72%
Possession
28%
10
Corners
4
10
Tackles
11
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
8'
ast. E. Montiel ·
E. Valencia⚽
41'
A. Bautista
S. Cordova
/ Paulinho
60'
J. Angulo
/ N. Castro
60'
D. Barbosa
/ S. Simon
60'
64'
A. Dominguez
/
O. Idrissi
75'
R. Lopez
/
C. Sanchez
P. Perez
/ F. Rossi
75'
A. Alvarez
76'
A. Alvarez
/ M. Isais
82'
90'+7
S. Rodriguez
90'
S. Rodriguez
/
E. Montiel
90'
J. Berlanga
/
Kenedy
Pre-match prediction
49.58%
Toluca
25.71%
X
24.71%
CF ←
we assigned to the actual result (CF Pachuca)
24.71%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.78
0.56
-1.22
1.23
1.27
+0.04
CF Pachuca dominated by xG (1.27 vs 0.56).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
22
Luis García
G
Luis García
G
35
Alek Álvarez
82'
D
Alek Álvarez
82'
D
25
Everardo López
D
Everardo López
D
4
D
2
Diego Barbosa
60'
D
Diego Barbosa
60'
D
14
M. Ruiz
M
M. Ruiz
M
5
M
15
Pavel Pérez
75'
M
Pavel Pérez
75'
M
10
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
60'
M
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
60'
M
7
S. Córdova
60'
M
S. Córdova
60'
M
29
Jorge Díaz
F
Jorge Díaz
F
Bench
206
Erick Orta
D
Erick Orta
D
24
Fernando Arce Juárez
M
Fernando Arce Juárez
M
27
Franco Rossi
23'
F
Franco Rossi
23'
F
17
M. Isaís
16'
D
M. Isaís
16'
D
8
Nicolás Castro
38'
M
Nicolás Castro
38'
M
19
Santiago Simón
38'
M
Santiago Simón
38'
M
33
V. Arteaga
M
V. Arteaga
M
25
C. Moreno
G
C. Moreno
G
26
Alan Bautista
D
Alan Bautista
D
2
D
4
Eduardo Bauermann
D
Eduardo Bauermann
D
14
C. Sánchez
75'
D
C. Sánchez
75'
D
8
Víctor Guzmán
M
Víctor Guzmán
M
16
C. Rivera
M
C. Rivera
M
11
O. Idrissi
64'
M
O. Idrissi
64'
M
28
E. Montiel
1 👟
M
E. Montiel
1 👟
M
29
Kenedy
M
Kenedy
M
10
E. Valencia
1 ⚽
F
E. Valencia
1 ⚽
F
Bench
18
A. Domínguez
34'
F
A. Domínguez
34'
F
184
Cristobal Alfaro
D
Cristobal Alfaro
D
139
J. Ramirez
F
7
Luis Quiñones
F
Luis Quiñones
F
5
Pedro Pedraza
M
Pedro Pedraza
M
188
Sergio Rodríguez
8'
M
Sergio Rodríguez
8'
M
Best on the pitch
Luis García
G · Toluca
8.30
· 30 pass
E. Valencia
F · CF
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
Kenedy
M · CF
7.30
2 shots
· 11 pass
M. Ruiz
M · Toluca
7.30
5 shots
· 95 pass
Eduardo Bauermann
D · CF
7.20
· 10 pass
Alan Bautista
D · CF
7.20
· 40 pass
Toluca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis García | G | 98 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Alek Álvarez | D | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 45% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Everardo López | D | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 67 | 62% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 70 | 62% | — | — | — | |
| Diego Barbosa | D | 60 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 21% | 4 | — | — |
| M. Ruiz | M | 98 | 7.30 | — | — | 5 | 95 | 85% | — | — | — |
| M | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 86 | 77% | — | — | — | |
| Pavel Pérez | M | 75 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 39% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Ricardo Angulo | M | 60 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Córdova | M | 60 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Jorge Díaz | F | 98 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Franco Rossi | F | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| M. Isaís | D | 16 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Nicolás Castro | M | 38 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Simón | M | 38 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | — | — | — |
CF Pachuca — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Moreno | G | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 28 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Alan Bautista | D | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 26% | 4 | 1 | — |
| D | 98 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 9% | — | — | — | |
| Eduardo Bauermann | D | 98 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 10 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Sánchez | D | 75 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Víctor Guzmán | M | 98 | 7.00 | — | — | 5 | 34 | 25% | — | — | — |
| C. Rivera | M | 98 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Idrissi | M | 64 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | — | — | — |
| E. Montiel | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 26 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Kenedy | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 8% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Valencia | F | 98 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| A. Domínguez | F | 34 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Sergio Rodríguez | M | 8 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
The final score was Toluca 0–1 CF Pachuca.
What did the model predict before Toluca vs CF Pachuca?
The model assigned 49% probability to a Toluca win, 25% to a draw, and 24% to an CF Pachuca win.