Brasileirão Série A
· Regular Season - 14
May 02, 2026 23:30
Rene
(ast. Luan Candido)
15'
Ze Vitor
(ast. Erick)
28'
D. Tarzia
(ast. Rene)
55'
Erick
61'
(pen.)
45'+3
(ast. Tinga)
Pedro Rocha
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Vitoria a 40% win probability (draw 30%, Coritiba 29%). The final result was Vitoria 4–1 Coritiba.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
3
7
Shots on target
1
2.06
Actual xG
0.63
0
Saves
3
61%
Possession
39%
2
Corners
4
17
Tackles
12
3
🟨 Yellow cards
1
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
⚽Rene
· ast. Luan Candido
15'
23'
Thiago Santos
26'
Tiago Coser
⚽Ze Vitor
· ast. Erick
28'
Matheuzinho
32'
45'+3
ast. Tinga ·
Pedro Rocha⚽
Matheuzinho
/ D. Tarzia
46'
Ze Vitor
46'
⚽D. Tarzia
· ast. Rene
55'
⚽Erick
(pen.)
61'
63'
Joao Pedro Chermont
/
Lucas Ronier
63'
Renato Marques
/
Pedro Rocha
63'
Vini Paulista
/
S. Gomez
Caique Goncalves
/ Ronald Lopes
64'
Ze Vitor
/ Edenilson
64'
75'
Gustavo
/
Josue
Caca
/ Neris
75'
Erick
/ Marinho
79'
Rene
86'
Pre-match prediction
40.48%
Vitoria ←
30.23%
X
29.29%
Coritiba
we assigned to the actual result (Vitoria)
40.48%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.10
2.06
+0.96
0.88
0.63
-0.25
Vitoria dominated by xG (2.06 vs 0.63).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
13
Ramon
D
Ramon
D
36
1 👟
D
25
Caca
75'
D
45
Nathan Mendes
D
Nathan Mendes
D
95
Caique Gonçalves
64'
M
Caique Gonçalves
64'
M
88
Zé Vitor
1 ⚽
64'
M
Zé Vitor
1 ⚽
64'
M
10
Matheuzinho
45'
M
6
Emmanuel Martínez
M
Emmanuel Martínez
M
33
Erick
1 ⚽
1 👟
79'
M
91
Renê Sousa
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Renê Sousa
1 ⚽
1 👟
F
Bench
17
A. Cantalapiedra
F
12
Diego Tarzia
1 ⚽
45'
D
Diego Tarzia
1 ⚽
45'
D
26
Edenilson
26'
M
Edenilson
26'
M
20
Lucas Silva
F
Lucas Silva
F
31
Renzo López
F
Renzo López
F
8
Ronald
26'
M
Ronald
26'
M
22
Pedro Rangel
G
Pedro Rangel
G
6
Felipe Jonatan
D
Felipe Jonatan
D
3
Maicon
D
23
Tiago Coser
26'
D
2
Tinga
1 👟
D
Tinga
1 👟
D
19
Sebastian Gomez
63'
M
Sebastian Gomez
63'
M
21
Thiago Santos
M
7
Joaquín Lavega
M
Joaquín Lavega
M
10
Josué
75'
M
Josué
75'
M
11
Lucas Ronier
63'
M
Lucas Ronier
63'
M
32
Pedro Rocha
1 ⚽
63'
F
Pedro Rocha
1 ⚽
63'
F
Bench
44
João Pedro Chermont
27'
D
João Pedro Chermont
27'
D
78
Renato Marques
27'
F
Renato Marques
27'
F
36
Vini Paulista
27'
F
Vini Paulista
27'
F
29
Willian Oliveira
M
Willian Oliveira
M
Best on the pitch
Renê Sousa
F · Vitoria
8.70
1 ⚽ 1 👟
3 shots
· 18 pass
Zé Vitor
M · Vitoria
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 45 pass
Diego Tarzia
D · Vitoria
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 22 pass
Erick
M · Vitoria
7.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots
· 36 pass
D · Vitoria
7.30
1 👟
· 64 pass
Ronald
M · Vitoria
7.20
· 22 pass
Vitoria — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 24 | 21% | — | — | — | |
| Ramon | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 63 | 59% | 2 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 64 | 62% | 2 | — | — | |
| Caca | D | 75 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 49 | 44% | — | — | — |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 43% | 1 | — | — |
| Caique Gonçalves | M | 64 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 34 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Zé Vitor | M | 64 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 45 | 36% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Matheuzinho | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 17 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 45 | 44% | 2 | — | — |
| Erick | M | 79 | 7.60 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 29% | — | — | — |
| Renê Sousa | F | 90 | 8.70 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| Diego Tarzia | D | 45 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 22 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Ronald | M | 26 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
Coritiba — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Rangel | G | 90 | 5.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Felipe Jonatan | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 52 | 47% | 4 | — | — |
| Maicon | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 31% | 2 | — | — |
| Tiago Coser | D | 26 | 4.20 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | 1 |
| Tinga | D | 90 | 5.90 | — | 1 | — | 23 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastian Gomez | M | 63 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 23% | 1 | — | — |
| Thiago Santos | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 24% | — | 1 | — |
| Joaquín Lavega | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Josué | M | 75 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 59 | 52% | 2 | — | — |
| Lucas Ronier | M | 63 | 5.70 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Pedro Rocha | F | 63 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 7 | 3% | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Chermont | D | 27 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Renato Marques | F | 27 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Vini Paulista | F | 27 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 12% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Vitoria vs Coritiba?
The final score was Vitoria 4–1 Coritiba.
What did the model predict before Vitoria vs Coritiba?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Vitoria win, 30% to a draw, and 29% to an Coritiba win.