Wales - Portugal
Weather at kick-off
☁️
Overcast
18.1°C
💨 14 km/h
· Iwaki
⚡ Pre-match analysis
18.5%
Win
Wales
33.53%
Draw
47.97%
Win
Portugal
0.64
1.26
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
0–1
(17.05%)
1X2 Result
1
19%
X
34%
2
48%
Double Chance
1X
52%
X2
82%
12
67%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
52%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Portugal a 47% win probability, against 33% for a draw and 18% for Wales. Expected goals are 0.6 for Wales and 1.3 for Portugal (total 1.9), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–1 at 17.05% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Wales have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Portugal.
Season Stats
4W
3D
3L
10W
3D
1L
Averages per game
1.1
Goals
2.2
0.9
Conceded
1.1
3.7
Shots OT
5.7
4.0
Corners
6.4
53%
Poss.
56%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
79%
40%
O 2.5
71%
40%
BTTS
79%
30%
Clean Sht
14%
ℹ
Based on the last 14 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
56%
BTTS
3W
1D
1L
· at home
4W
2D
1L
· away
1.4
gls/g
1.7
0.6
Conceded
1.0
60%
Win %
57%
80%
Win or Draw
86%
40%
O 1.5
71%
40%
O 2.5
57%
20%
O 3.5
29%
40%
BTTS
71%
40%
Clean Sht
14%
40%
Failed to Score
29%
last 7
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Wales
Portugal →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1% | 18.9% | 11.9% | 5.0% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| 1 | 9.6% | 12.1% | 7.6% | 3.2% | 1.0% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 3.1% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| 3 | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
| 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Wales
Attack
26
Defence
61
Form
24
Portugal
Attack
54
Defence
69
Form
70
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
0
0
Draw
1
24 Sep 2026
0–1
What's at stake · League A - Group D
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #3 | #1 |
| → Wales | #3 | #1 |
| → Draw | #3 | #1 |
| → Portugal | #4 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Wales vs Portugal?
The model gives Wales a 18% win probability, 33% for a draw, and 47% for an Portugal win.
How many goals are expected in Wales vs Portugal?
Expected goals: Wales 0.6, Portugal 1.3 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Wales vs Portugal?
0–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 17.05%.