England - Croatia
⚡ Pre-match analysis
79.83%
Win
England
14.81%
Draw
5.36%
Win
Croatia
2.58
0.51
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
England
79.83%
Probability
62.9%
1X2 accuracy · 35 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–0
(15.2%)
1X2 Result
1
80%
X
15%
2
5%
Double Chance
1X
95%
X2
20%
12
85%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
86%
Over 2.5
69%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives England a 79% win probability, against 14% for a draw and 5% for Croatia. Expected goals are 2.6 for England and 0.5 for Croatia (total 3.1), with a 86% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–0 at 15.2% probability. In 2 previous meetings, England have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Croatia.
Season Stats
8W
0D
2L
4W
2D
6L
Averages per game
3.0
Goals
1.2
0.6
Conceded
2.0
6.2
Shots OT
4.4
6.5
Corners
4.0
66%
Poss.
45%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
83%
70%
O 2.5
58%
30%
BTTS
58%
70%
Clean Sht
17%
ℹ
Based on the last 12 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
37%
O 3.5
54%
BTTS
3W
0D
2L
· at home
1W
1D
4L
· away
2.6
gls/g
1.2
1.0
Conceded
2.2
60%
Win %
17%
60%
Win or Draw
33%
100%
O 1.5
83%
80%
O 2.5
67%
40%
O 3.5
33%
40%
BTTS
67%
60%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
33%
last 6
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ England
Croatia →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 1 | 11.7% | 6.0% | 1.5% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 2 | 15.1% | 7.7% | 2.0% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 3 | 13.0% | 6.7% | 1.7% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 4 | 8.4% | 4.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 5 | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
England
Attack
61
Defence
67
Form
62
Croatia
Attack
29
Defence
46
Form
21
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Unavailable
England
Injured
Injured
Injured
Injured
What's at stake · League A - Group C
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #3 |
| → England | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #2 | #3 |
| → Croatia | #2 | #3 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win England vs Croatia?
The model gives England a 79% win probability, 14% for a draw, and 5% for an Croatia win.
How many goals are expected in England vs Croatia?
Expected goals: England 2.6, Croatia 0.5 (total 3.1). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 86%.
What is the most likely score in England vs Croatia?
2–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 15.2%.