✗Model wrong — prediction FC Thun, result FC Lugano wins
(pen.)
90'+7
E. Alioski
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Thun a 63% win probability (draw 19%, FC Lugano 16%). The final result was FC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano. In 3 previous meetings, FC Thun have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for FC Lugano.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
10
4
Shots on target
6
0.76
Actual xG
2.48
5
Saves
4
45%
Possession
55%
7
Corners
5
9
Tackles
15
3
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
G. Montolio
/ L. Dahler
5'
M. Heule
33'
36'
A. Papadopoulos
46'
M. Belhadj
/
D. Dos Santos
F. Fehr
46'
53'
M. Zanotti
57'
K. Behrens
/
G. Koutsias
F. Fehr
/ V. Matoshi
62'
K. Imeri
/ F. Meichtry
62'
C. Ibayi
/ B. Labeau
74'
M. Kait
/ F. Dursun
74'
77'
E. Alioski
/
Y. Cimignani
81'
M. Belhadj
88'
M. Bottani
/
R. Steffen
88'
E. Pihlstrom
/
U. Bislimi
M. Burki
90'+5
90'+7
(pen.)
E. Alioski⚽
90'+10
E. Alioski
Pre-match prediction
63.26%
FC
19.96%
X
16.78%
FC ←
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (FC Lugano)
16.78%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.40
0.76
-1.64
0.99
2.48
+1.49
FC Lugano dominated by xG (2.48 vs 0.76).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
24
Niklas Steffen
G
Niklas Steffen
G
27
Michael Heule
D
Michael Heule
D
23
M. Bürki
D
M. Bürki
D
4
Genís Montolio
5'
D
19
D
14
Mattias Käit
74'
M
Mattias Käit
74'
M
6
Leonardo Bertone
M
Leonardo Bertone
M
7
Kastriot Imeri
62'
M
Kastriot Imeri
62'
M
47
F. Fehr
62'
M
F. Fehr
62'
M
74
Elmin Rastoder
F
Elmin Rastoder
F
18
Christopher Ibayi
74'
F
Christopher Ibayi
74'
F
Bench
96
B. Labeau
16'
F
B. Labeau
16'
F
77
E. Meichtry
28'
M
E. Meichtry
28'
M
16
Justin Roth
M
Justin Roth
M
78
Valmir Matoshi
28'
M
Valmir Matoshi
28'
M
16
G
3
Hannes Delcroix
D
Hannes Delcroix
D
17
Lars Lukas Mai
D
Lars Lukas Mai
D
6
Antonios Papadopoulos
D
Antonios Papadopoulos
D
21
Yanis Cimignani
77'
M
Yanis Cimignani
77'
M
8
M
25
Uran Bislimi
89'
M
Uran Bislimi
89'
M
46
M. Zanotti
M
M. Zanotti
M
27
Daniel Dos Santos
45'
F
Daniel Dos Santos
45'
F
9
G. Koutsias
57'
F
G. Koutsias
57'
F
11
Renato Steffen
89'
F
Renato Steffen
89'
F
Bench
7
Ezgjan Alioski
1 ⚽
13'
D
Ezgjan Alioski
1 ⚽
13'
D
29
H. Mahmoud
45'
M
H. Mahmoud
45'
M
91
K. Behrens
33'
F
K. Behrens
33'
F
Best on the pitch
Hannes Delcroix
D · FC
8.20
· 28 pass
Niklas Steffen
G · FC
7.90
· 37 pass
Lars Lukas Mai
D · FC
7.60
1 shots
· 54 pass
Leonardo Bertone
M · FC
7.50
· 39 pass
Renato Steffen
F · FC
7.30
· 33 pass
M. Zanotti
M · FC
7.30
1 shots
· 25 pass
FC Thun — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niklas Steffen | G | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Michael Heule | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 30 | 21% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Bürki | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 35% | — | 1 | — |
| Genís Montolio | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 39 | 35% | 1 | — | — | |
| Mattias Käit | M | 74 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Leonardo Bertone | M | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 39 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Kastriot Imeri | M | 62 | 7.20 | — | — | 5 | 21 | 17% | — | — | — |
| F. Fehr | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 19 | 10% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Elmin Rastoder | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Christopher Ibayi | F | 74 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| B. Labeau | F | 16 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — | — |
| E. Meichtry | M | 28 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Valmir Matoshi | M | 28 | 5.60 | — | — | 2 | 4 | — | — | — | — |
FC Lugano — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 41 | 32% | — | — | — | |
| Hannes Delcroix | D | 90 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 26% | 5 | — | — |
| Lars Lukas Mai | D | 90 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 54 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| Antonios Papadopoulos | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 16% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Yanis Cimignani | M | 77 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 34 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 56 | 49% | 1 | — | — | |
| Uran Bislimi | M | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 57 | 49% | — | — | — |
| M. Zanotti | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 19% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Daniel Dos Santos | F | 45 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Koutsias | F | 57 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Renato Steffen | F | 89 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | — | — | — |
| Ezgjan Alioski | D | 13 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 6 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| H. Mahmoud | M | 45 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Behrens | F | 33 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 9% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
The final score was FC Thun 0–1 FC Lugano.
What did the model predict before FC Thun vs FC Lugano?
The model assigned 63% probability to a FC Thun win, 19% to a draw, and 16% to an FC Lugano win.