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Championship · Regular Season - 44 April 21, 2026 20:45
Oxford United
0 – 1
Final score
Wrexham
#16 · 17 pts
40' (ast. S. Smith) J. Windass
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Oxford United a 48% win probability (draw 28%, Wrexham 22%). The final result was Oxford United 0–1 Wrexham. In 1 previous meetings, Oxford United have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Wrexham.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
4
0.76
Actual xG
1.34
3
Saves
4
45%
Possession
55%
10
Corners
5
9
Tackles
10
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
32'
R. Longman
40'
ast. S. Smith · J. Windass⚽
56'
I. Kabore / R. Longman ↕
↕ M. Peart-Harris / A. Emakhu
56'
↕ J. McDonnell / W. Vaulks
56'
A. Emakhu
62'
66'
I. Kabore
↕ Y. E. Konak / M. Harris
67'
↕ S. Long / H. ter Avest
67'
70'
L. O'Brien / O. Rathbone ↕
71'
K. Moore / S. Smith ↕
↕ B. Spencer / J. Donley
88'
S. Mills
90'+2
90'+3
M. Cleworth / J. Windass ↕
90'+4
G. Dobson
Pre-match prediction
48.11%
Oxford
28.95%
X
22.94%
Wrexham ←
we assigned to the actual result (Wrexham) 22.94% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Oxford
1.39
0.76
-0.63
Wrexham
0.69
1.34
+0.65
Wrexham dominated by xG (1.34 vs 0.76). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 14 28
2 Wolves Wolves 14 27
3 Birmingham Birmingham 14 26
4 Stoke City Stoke City 14 26
5 Swansea Swansea 14 26
6 West Brom West Brom 14 25
7 Southampton Southampton 14 24
8 West Ham West Ham 14 23
9 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 14 22
10 Portsmouth Portsmouth 14 22
11 QPR QPR 14 21
12 Norwich Norwich 14 18
13 Millwall Millwall 14 18
14 Blackburn Blackburn 14 18
15 Bristol City Bristol City 14 18
16 Wrexham Wrexham 14 17
17 Bolton Bolton 15 17
18 Cardiff Cardiff 14 15
19 Lincoln Lincoln 14 15
20 Watford Watford 14 14
21 Charlton Charlton 14 14
22 Burnley Burnley 14 10
23 Derby Derby 15 10
24 Preston Preston 14 5
Lineups
Oxford United Oxford United 4-2-3-1
1
G 6.70
15 B. Spencer B. Spencer 88' D 6.20
3 C. Brown C. Brown D 6.70
6 M. Helik M. Helik D 6.50
2 S. Long S. Long 67' D 6.90
5 Y. Konak Y. Konak 67' M 6.70
38 Jamie Carson McDonnell Jamie Carson McDonnell 56' M 6.60
44 M. Peart-Harris M. Peart-Harris 56' M 6.20
8 C. Brannagan C. Brannagan M 7.00
17 S. Mills S. Mills M 7.00
27 W. Lankshear W. Lankshear F 6.20
Bench
10 A. Emakhu A. Emakhu 34' F 6.90
24 H. ter Avest H. ter Avest 23' D 7.00
33 J. Donley J. Donley 2' M
9 M. Harris M. Harris 23' F 6.30
4 W. Vaulks W. Vaulks 34' M 6.60
Wrexham Wrexham 3-5-1-1
21
G 7.20
2 C. Doyle C. Doyle D 7.20
24 Dan Scarr Dan Scarr D 7.30
5
D 8.20
14 G. Thomason G. Thomason M 7.70
20 O. Rathbone O. Rathbone 70' M 7.20
37 M. James M. James M 6.90
15 G. Dobson G. Dobson M 7.00
47 R. Longman R. Longman 56' M 6.20
10 J. Windass J. Windass 1 ⚽ 89' F 7.90
28 S. Smith S. Smith 1 👟 71' F 6.70
Bench
11 B. Cadamarteri B. Cadamarteri F
12 I. Kaboré I. Kaboré 34' D 6.90
19 K. Moore K. Moore 19' F 6.90
4 M. Cleworth M. Cleworth 1' D
33 N. Broadhead N. Broadhead F
Best on the pitch
D · Wrexham
8.20
2 shots · 48 pass
J. Windass
J. Windass
F · Wrexham
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 31 pass
G. Thomason
G. Thomason
M · Wrexham
7.70
· 36 pass
Dan Scarr
Dan Scarr
D · Wrexham
7.30
· 48 pass
O. Rathbone
O. Rathbone
M · Wrexham
7.20
· 38 pass
G · Wrexham
7.20
· 22 pass
Oxford United Oxford United — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.70 — — — 32 18% — — —
B. Spencer D 88 6.20 — — — 32 25% 1 — —
C. Brown D 90 6.70 — — — 47 31% — — —
M. Helik D 90 6.50 — — 2 36 28% — — —
S. Long D 67 6.90 — — — 28 20% 1 — —
Y. Konak M 67 6.70 — — — 24 19% 1 — —
Jamie Carson McDonnell M 56 6.60 — — — 10 5% 3 — —
M. Peart-Harris M 56 6.20 — — — 12 5% 1 — —
C. Brannagan M 90 7.00 — — 1 32 23% — — —
S. Mills M 90 7.00 — — 1 22 15% 1 1 —
W. Lankshear F 90 6.20 — — 2 16 9% — — —
A. Emakhu F 34 6.90 — — 2 8 6% — 1 —
H. ter Avest D 23 7.00 — — — 20 17% — — —
J. Donley M 2 — — — — 1 1% — — —
M. Harris F 23 6.30 — — 1 3 2% 1 — —
W. Vaulks M 34 6.60 — — — 25 18% — — —
Wrexham Wrexham — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.20 — — — 22 7% — — —
C. Doyle D 90 7.20 — — 2 77 55% 1 — —
Dan Scarr D 90 7.30 — — — 48 43% — — —
D 90 8.20 — — 2 48 37% 3 — —
G. Thomason M 90 7.70 — — — 36 31% 1 — —
O. Rathbone M 70 7.20 — — — 38 35% 3 — —
M. James M 90 6.90 — — — 51 40% 1 — —
G. Dobson M 90 7.00 — — — 49 42% — 1 —
R. Longman M 56 6.20 — — — 16 12% 1 1 —
J. Windass F 89 7.90 1 — 2 31 25% — — —
S. Smith F 71 6.70 — 1 2 14 7% — — —
I. Kaboré D 34 6.90 — — — 6 4% — 1 —
K. Moore F 19 6.90 — — — 6 3% — — —
M. Cleworth D 1 — — — — — — — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Oxford United vs Wrexham?
The final score was Oxford United 0–1 Wrexham.
What did the model predict before Oxford United vs Wrexham?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Oxford United win, 28% to a draw, and 22% to an Wrexham win.