Championship
· Regular Season - 44
April 21, 2026 20:45
40'
(ast. S. Smith)
J. Windass
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Oxford United a 48% win probability (draw 28%, Wrexham 22%). The final result was Oxford United 0–1 Wrexham. In 1 previous meetings, Oxford United have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Wrexham.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
8
4
Shots on target
4
0.76
Actual xG
1.34
3
Saves
4
45%
Possession
55%
10
Corners
5
9
Tackles
10
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
32'
R. Longman
40'
ast. S. Smith ·
J. Windass⚽
56'
I. Kabore
/
R. Longman
M. Peart-Harris
/ A. Emakhu
56'
J. McDonnell
/ W. Vaulks
56'
A. Emakhu
62'
66'
I. Kabore
Y. E. Konak
/ M. Harris
67'
S. Long
/ H. ter Avest
67'
70'
L. O'Brien
/
O. Rathbone
71'
K. Moore
/
S. Smith
B. Spencer
/ J. Donley
88'
S. Mills
90'+2
90'+3
M. Cleworth
/
J. Windass
90'+4
G. Dobson
Pre-match prediction
48.11%
Oxford
28.95%
X
22.94%
Wrexham ←
we assigned to the actual result (Wrexham)
22.94%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.39
0.76
-0.63
0.69
1.34
+0.65
Wrexham dominated by xG (1.34 vs 0.76).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
15
Brodie Spencer
88'
D
Brodie Spencer
88'
D
3
Ciaron Brown
D
Ciaron Brown
D
6
M. Helik
D
2
S. Long
67'
D
5
Y. E. Konak
67'
M
38
Jamie McDonnell
56'
M
Jamie McDonnell
56'
M
44
M. Peart-Harris
56'
M
8
C. Brannagan
M
17
S. Mills
M
27
W. Lankshear
F
W. Lankshear
F
Bench
10
A. Emakhu
34'
F
A. Emakhu
34'
F
24
H. ter Avest
23'
D
33
Jamie Donley
2'
M
Jamie Donley
2'
M
9
M. Harris
23'
F
4
W. Vaulks
34'
M
21
G
2
C. Doyle
D
C. Doyle
D
24
D. Scarr
D
5
D
14
G. Thomason
M
20
Oliver Rathbone
70'
M
37
Matty James
M
15
G. Dobson
M
G. Dobson
M
47
R. Longman
56'
M
10
J. Windass
1 ⚽
89'
F
J. Windass
1 ⚽
89'
F
28
S. Smith
1 👟
71'
F
Bench
11
B. Cadamarteri
F
B. Cadamarteri
F
12
I. Kaboré
34'
D
I. Kaboré
34'
D
19
K. Moore
19'
F
K. Moore
19'
F
4
Max Cleworth
1'
D
33
N. Broadhead
F
N. Broadhead
F
Best on the pitch
D · Wrexham
8.20
2 shots
· 48 pass
J. Windass
F · Wrexham
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 31 pass
G. Thomason
M · Wrexham
7.70
· 36 pass
D. Scarr
D · Wrexham
7.30
· 48 pass
Oliver Rathbone
M · Wrexham
7.20
· 38 pass
G · Wrexham
7.20
· 22 pass
Oxford United — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 32 | 18% | — | — | — | |
| Brodie Spencer | D | 88 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Ciaron Brown | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 47 | 31% | — | — | — |
| M. Helik | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 36 | 28% | — | — | — |
| S. Long | D | 67 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. E. Konak | M | 67 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Jamie McDonnell | M | 56 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 10 | 5% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Peart-Harris | M | 56 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 12 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Brannagan | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 23% | — | — | — |
| S. Mills | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 15% | 1 | 1 | — |
| W. Lankshear | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 9% | — | — | — |
| A. Emakhu | F | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 8 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| H. ter Avest | D | 23 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Jamie Donley | M | 2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| M. Harris | F | 23 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Vaulks | M | 34 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | — | — | — |
Wrexham — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 22 | 7% | — | — | — | |
| C. Doyle | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 77 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Scarr | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 48 | 43% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 8.20 | — | — | 2 | 48 | 37% | 3 | — | — | |
| G. Thomason | M | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| Oliver Rathbone | M | 70 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 35% | 3 | — | — |
| Matty James | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 51 | 40% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Dobson | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 49 | 42% | — | 1 | — |
| R. Longman | M | 56 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Windass | F | 89 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 31 | 25% | — | — | — |
| S. Smith | F | 71 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7% | — | — | — |
| I. Kaboré | D | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Moore | F | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 6 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Max Cleworth | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Oxford United vs Wrexham?
The final score was Oxford United 0–1 Wrexham.
What did the model predict before Oxford United vs Wrexham?
The model assigned 48% probability to a Oxford United win, 28% to a draw, and 22% to an Wrexham win.