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Spartak Moscow - Rubin

Cup October 28, 2026 18:30 Lukoil Arena, Moscow
Weather at kick-off ☀️ Clear sky 8.5°C 💨 5 km/h · Moscow
⚡ Pre-match analysis
78.49%
Win
Spartak Moscow
13.72%
Draw
7.79%
Win
Rubin
2.51
Expected xG
0.53
Most likely outcome
Spartak Moscow
78.49%
Probability
33.3%
1X2 accuracy · 3 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–0 (15.13%)
1X2 Result
1 78%
X 14%
2 8%
Double Chance
1X 92%
X2 22%
12 86%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 64%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Spartak Moscow a 78% win probability, against 13% for a draw and 7% for Rubin. Expected goals are 2.5 for Spartak Moscow and 0.5 for Rubin (total 3.0), with a 88% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–0 at 15.13% probability. In 5 previous meetings, Spartak Moscow have won 3 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Rubin.

Season Stats

Spartak Moscow
10W 3D 2L
Rubin
1W 5D 5L
Averages per game
2.3
Goals
0.7
1.2
Conceded
1.8
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
73%
67%
O 2.5
36%
73%
BTTS
36%
27%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
31%
O 3.5
42%
BTTS
Spartak Moscow
6W 2D 1L · at home
Rubin
0W 3D 3L · away
2.2
gls/g
0.2
0.8
Conceded
1.8
67%
Win %
0%
89%
Win or Draw
50%
78%
O 1.5
67%
56%
O 2.5
33%
44%
O 3.5
17%
67%
BTTS
17%
33%
Clean Sht
33%
0%
Failed to Score
83%
last 9
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Spartak Moscow Rubin →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.8% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% — —
1 12.0% 6.4% 1.7% 0.3% — —
2 15.1% 8.0% 2.1% 0.4% — —
3 12.6% 6.7% 1.8% 0.3% — —
4 7.9% 4.2% 1.1% 0.2% — —
5 4.0% 2.1% 0.6% 0.1% — —

Recent form

W Rodina Moskva 2–4
W Rodina Moskva 3–1
D Rubin 1–1
W FC Orenburg 5–1
D FC Krasnodar 1–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 48%
L FC Orenburg 1–4
D FC Orenburg 1–1
D Spartak Moscow 1–1
L Rodina Moskva 5–0
D Arsenal Tula 0–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 16%

Playing profile

Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow
Attack
62
Defence
64
Form
62
Rubin Rubin
Attack
22
Defence
51
Form
35
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?
The model gives Spartak Moscow a 78% win probability, 13% for a draw, and 7% for an Rubin win.
How many goals are expected in Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?
Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 2.5, Rubin 0.5 (total 3.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 88%.
What is the most likely score in Spartak Moscow vs Rubin?
2–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 15.13%.