Conference League
· Semi-finals
May 07, 2026 21:00
42'
Alemao
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rayo Vallecano a 40% win probability (draw 24%, Strasbourg 34%). The final result was Strasbourg 0–1 Rayo Vallecano. In 1 previous meetings, Strasbourg have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Rayo Vallecano.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
18
3
Shots on target
8
1.59
Actual xG
1.63
7
Saves
3
49%
Possession
51%
5
Corners
6
11
Tackles
27
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
B. Chilwell
25'
42'
Alemao⚽
B. Chilwell
/ S. Nanasi
46'
65'
S. Camello
/
Alemao
S. El Mourabet
/ S. Amo-Ameyaw
67'
78'
P. Diaz
/
I. Palazon
78'
I. Balliu
/
J. de Frutos
D. Moreira
80'
85'
A. Garcia
/
Pacha
86'
U. Lopez
86'
G. Gumbau
/
U. Lopez
86'
O. Valentin
88'
A. Batalla
⚽J. Enciso
(missed pen.)
90'+4
Pre-match prediction
34.85%
Strasbourg
24.73%
X
40.42%
Rayo ←
we assigned to the actual result (Rayo Vallecano)
40.42%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.25
1.59
+0.34
1.64
1.63
-0.01
xG dominance was balanced (1.59 – 1.63).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
39
G
3
Ben Chilwell
45'
D
Ben Chilwell
45'
D
2
Andrew Omobamidele
D
Andrew Omobamidele
D
6
I. Doukouré
D
I. Doukouré
D
22
Guéla Doué
D
Guéla Doué
D
29
Samir El Mourabet
67'
M
Samir El Mourabet
67'
M
20
M. Godo
M
M. Godo
M
42
Abdoul Ouattara
M
Abdoul Ouattara
M
32
V. Barco
M
V. Barco
M
7
Diego Moreira
M
Diego Moreira
M
19
J. Enciso
F
J. Enciso
F
Bench
80
Gessime Yassine
F
Gessime Yassine
F
24
Lucas Høgsberg
D
Lucas Høgsberg
D
17
Mathis Amougou
M
Mathis Amougou
M
8
Maxi Oyedele
M
Maxi Oyedele
M
27
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
30'
F
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw
30'
F
11
S. Nanasi
52'
M
S. Nanasi
52'
M
13
Augusto Batalla
G
Augusto Batalla
G
3
D
6
P. Ciss
D
P. Ciss
D
24
Florian Lejeune
D
Florian Lejeune
D
2
Andrei Rațiu
D
Andrei Rațiu
D
23
Óscar Valentín
M
Óscar Valentín
M
17
Unai López
86'
M
Unai López
86'
M
22
Pacha
85'
M
Pacha
85'
M
7
Isi Palazón
78'
M
Isi Palazón
78'
M
19
Jorge de Frutos
78'
M
Jorge de Frutos
78'
M
9
Alemão
1 ⚽
65'
F
Alemão
1 ⚽
65'
F
Bench
18
Álvaro García
12'
M
Álvaro García
12'
M
1
Dani Cárdenas
G
Dani Cárdenas
G
15
Gerard Gumbau
11'
M
Gerard Gumbau
11'
M
32
N. Mendy
D
N. Mendy
D
4
Pedro Díaz
19'
M
Pedro Díaz
19'
M
10
Sergio Camello
32'
F
Sergio Camello
32'
F
Best on the pitch
G · Strasbourg
9.60
· 58 pass
Alemão
F · Rayo
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 13 pass
Augusto Batalla
G · Rayo
7.90
· 37 pass
Florian Lejeune
D · Rayo
7.50
2 shots
· 60 pass
Sergio Camello
F · Rayo
7.20
1 shots
· 6 pass
Óscar Valentín
M · Rayo
7.20
· 49 pass
Strasbourg — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 9.60 | — | — | — | 58 | 50% | — | — | — | |
| Ben Chilwell | D | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 17 | 16% | — | 1 | — |
| Andrew Omobamidele | D | 97 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 62 | 59% | — | — | — |
| I. Doukouré | D | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 65 | 59% | — | — | — |
| Guéla Doué | D | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 41 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| Samir El Mourabet | M | 67 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 24% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Godo | M | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 22 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Abdoul Ouattara | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Barco | M | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 42 | 33% | 2 | — | — |
| Diego Moreira | M | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 18% | 3 | 1 | — |
| J. Enciso | F | 97 | 5.30 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | F | 30 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| S. Nanasi | M | 52 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
Rayo Vallecano — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augusto Batalla | G | 97 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 22% | — | 1 | — |
| D | 97 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 38 | 29% | 1 | — | — | |
| P. Ciss | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 60 | 57% | 1 | — | — |
| Florian Lejeune | D | 97 | 7.50 | — | — | 2 | 60 | 51% | 3 | — | — |
| Andrei Rațiu | D | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 33% | 3 | — | — |
| Óscar Valentín | M | 97 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 49 | 43% | 9 | 1 | — |
| Unai López | M | 86 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 44% | — | 1 | — |
| Pacha | M | 85 | 6.90 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| Isi Palazón | M | 78 | 6.30 | — | — | 3 | 38 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Jorge de Frutos | M | 78 | 6.30 | — | — | 4 | 16 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Alemão | F | 65 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 13 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| Álvaro García | M | 12 | 6.50 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gerard Gumbau | M | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 19 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Sergio Camello | F | 32 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano?
The final score was Strasbourg 0–1 Rayo Vallecano.
What did the model predict before Strasbourg vs Rayo Vallecano?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Strasbourg win, 24% to a draw, and 40% to an Rayo Vallecano win.